ABNB has a strong long-term thesis (network effects, growth) but is currently overvalued; hold but do not buy more.

Should we do maybe Airbnb because I think that should be quick simply because it's one of our largest largest portfolio holdings. Um, we should just say I mean they just released earnings um not too long ago. Um, the market liked them.

I think the main reason has basically been this um you know the reacelerated growth in nights and services or nights booked and services because if you compare that year-over-year um you would see March 26 9% growth um compared to you know March 2025 7.9 and then in June significantly 7.4 to 10.3%.

I think this has been primarily because um of why the market liked the the results so much um because you needed reaceleration.

Let's I mean I think the the topline growth has somewhat been a problem. Uh I would put Adobe comfortably in the A tier.

In short, uh people love to travel. Uh there's a lot of value in alternative travel to hotels. Um I just traveled with my uh my wife's family for a wedding. Uh we opted to stay uh some folks stayed at the hotel.

We opted to get an Airbnb so that we could bring the family dog along and we could kind of have, you know, the family in one shared living space. To me, that is like a great illustration of the value of Adobe uh or sorry, of Airbnb.

Um got Adobe on the brain. Uh and and you know, AI doesn't change any of that. Um they have this incredibly robust network of of hosts. um their demand aggregator uh their flywheel is is continuing to compound uh just to spit out all the jargon there.

Uh but I feel very very confident um people are only going to be spending more on alternative travel uh going forward. It's becoming increasingly mainstream so that it's not alternative travel but it's just when people go to travel they think oh let me look for an Airbnb.

Um and that might be their first thought before they even look for a hotel.

Um especially if you're, you know, traveling um not not for business. You know, if you're traveling for business, you're probably going to go for a hotel. U if you're traveling for pleasure with family, you want unique experiences.

Um the the network of hosts that Airbnb has um is really hard to beat. And the opportunity like kind of unique experiences that they can provide.

Um, and I don't see any reason why uh um I don't see any competitive threat that would uh justify, you know, or explain why hosts would suddenly, you know, move their supply of housing, you know, their their uh inventory for Airbnb, why they would move that onto other platforms long term. I don't think AI fundamentally changes that.

So, um I would say it's not a bulletproof company. I wouldn't put it S tier, but I'm definitely very happy to have it in A tier. In terms of valuation, um I would probably be uh I I'm very optimistic about their growth prospects.

Um but you have to admit like you're getting uh a rich valuation today, especially I first started buying Airbnb at 120 a share a year ago. Now it's almost um up to 190. Uh, and I believe it's trading at like 36 times um, operating profit.

>> more expensive than I thought. >> It is. Yeah. And there's a huge component of of stockbased comp. So, you to be completely candid, um, with Airbnb, I think we're in a position of of letting our winners run.

We don't want to trim the position, but we're definitely not adding to it at current valuations.

And so, um, gosh, relative to these other companies, like [laughter] >> it's hard. It feels really weird to say that the value today is like worse than Wix, but it is.

>> Like if Yeah. I mean, I would put it at a C or a D. Like the stock the stock is objectively expensive at the moment. Um, but like I said, you know, 10 years long term, um, I'm incredibly incredibly optimistic about their ability to continue to to grow basically the network effect of hosts that they have.

Uh, and then how that will continue to attract more customers, which attracts more hosts, which attract, you know, the flywheel spins and spins and spins.

And so, anyways, um, 10 years looks good valuation today. Um, I could even put it in the D tier. >> Yeah, it might be if it's actually I didn't realize it's that expensive by now.

Um, but I think it did go up also like 40% from Lowe's. So, um, I think that makes sense. Somewhere like C2D.

And for all the people who just joined, if you're thinking, well, are they actually thinking that Wix is higher quality than Airbnb? No, it's not. value today. The idea is basically saying okay well based on today's prices for the next let's say one to three years which of those is probably cheaper right now if you just think about quality um you should look out you know longer term and that's 10 year time horizon here if you see Wix EF Airbnb um so I think that's um that's quite fair

chat is saying Airbnb closer to DTIP I think that's also fair and just one thing and I pointed it out in in a comment here basically a minute ago I think also for me and I'm from Europe So maybe there's a bit more of that um you know that that sentiment towards the company but I think public opinion especially in the long run I think value today doesn't matter at all.

Um but 10 years time the more successful Airbnb will become and the more Airbnbs are in those major cities um the more of a you know political and public problem it will become.

Um there already people I think Barcelona is like on top of that whenever it comes to people demonstrating against um against Airbnb. I think you will see that more and more often.

And then it's really about how much political ch or change will actually um come about from those things. I could expect that it's not that you know extreme in the US. I would also assume that's more extreme in Europe.

Um I don't think how I don't know how far they will take it. I mean basically when we first talked about Uber it was similar right? Um where I was like you know in Germany for example Uber was you know not allowed for a long time in many other countries in Europe too. over time um that sort of freed up and now basically they need a solid taxi license but um it's basically you know Uber started to dominate over time and I think Airbnb didn't have the same problems starting but they will have more of those problems the more successful they become um and it is already showing so I think that's somewhat of a long-term concern but I think pretty low if you compare that to especially companies that are hit for by AI for example I think that's uh that's safe to say

>> sort of the thing with Uber is like when the product is so good >> even if there are negative externalities that that come from it the the demand for it overwhelms it so like Airbnb the negative externalities is you know neighborhoods uh it changes the the composition of neighborhoods of now you don't have a permanent neighbor but you have uh you know this every weekend there's different people coming through and so um that is sort of seen as a negative externality but if there's so many people that want to travel and have unique experiences is that kind of overwhelms

so like Airbnb the negative externalities is you know neighborhoods uh it changes the the composition of neighborhoods of now you don't have a permanent neighbor but you have uh you know this every weekend there's different people coming through and so um that is sort of seen as a negative externality but if there's so many people that want to travel and have unique experiences is that kind of overwhelms the the resistance

with the point being I think you get these like these there are externalities and I think you get these regulatory blocks um but I think the demand for the product the demand for being able to use Airbnb or Uber eventually uh eventually overwhelms

Um, so probably you have to summarize it value today probably can only be I mean we have Wix and and C tier probably similar to Airbnb I would say.

>> like I said, I I I can put together a really strong bull thesis on why Shopify will be uh, a much better business, a much bigger business 10 years from now. But I do think that there are, you know, legitimate uncertainties.

And then in terms of valuation, um, like you said, it's it's an expensive stock. It has been an expensive stock. Uh, yeah, it would be I I couldn't put put it above Airbnb.

>> I I would probably Yeah, I would probably put it even below Airbnb.