ACN sell-off was overstated; current price implies negative 4% FCF growth for next decade.
Jump to any passage
I mean, just take a look at this list. We have S&P Global, Accenture, Intuit, SAP, Equifax, Cognizant, and Salesforce. These are all companies that have been hammered over the last year, with some being down 50% at some points.
These are software companies, IT services, and financial data companies. These are what I deem as AI victim stocks.
Perhaps one of the most interesting case studies has been Accenture. Now, Accenture is essentially a consulting and technology implementation company. In other words, this is exactly what the market believes is ripe for disruption and to some degree that might be true.
Revenue guidance is relatively low for this stock over the next few years. They're essentially guiding towards single-digit revenue growth. But keep that in mind for just a moment because yes, single-digit revenue growth rate is certainly slower than what we've seen historically speaking.
If we overlay revenue growth rates, we can see often times they're sitting at around 4 to 7%, maybe even 5% for the trailing 12-month revenue growth. But I talked about this stock just a few months ago when trading at very low prices.
And the reason it caught my attention is when I was looking at it through the lens of a reverse discounted cash flow analysis. Because essentially what this is doing is telling us how much growth is priced into a stock.
And so when I apply 0% free cash flow growth rate to the free cash flow for this stock over the next decade, the company's worth $244 a share.
So that means the stock essentially has negative free cash flow growth priced in. In fact, it has negative 4% free cash flow growth priced in over the next decade. So the market is still incredibly pessimistic on the stock.
And when it was trading at its lowest prices, I ran this model at around $128 a share, the market was pricing in negative 10% free cash flow growth annually. And that's the type of scenario where this really starts to become valuable because you can see just how pessimistic the market has become on certain stocks.
And so while some level of disruption might be the case, you can see the sell-off was way overstated.
What this channel has said about $ACN
Dividendology has only this one call on this stock.