AMD is overbought short-term (do not add), but has a bullish long-term thesis with ~50% upside due to CPU growth and margins.

Uh, we've got there's there's a lot to cover. Obviously, we're going to cover this uh with AMD and uh Intel. We'll be covering those in just a moment.

we have to break down what's going on with AMD as well.

Now, we need to talk a little bit about AMD and Meta somemore.

Let's go see the AMD commentary. So, uh AMD AMD is okay, that was Fed. Let's go to Metamuse. There we go. Metamuse tech stocks. I've got AMD. Let's pull that in here. And yeah, that's pretty good. Okay, cool.

Okay, so let's go dive into some of these pieces on uh AMD.

let's go look at this AMD stuff. Uh, okay. So, you know, we should also pull up the uh AMD investor relations sheet because I don't think they segregate. Segregate is probably not the right word.

Disagregate is is a nicer way to put it. The CPUs But that's okay.

Shares of AMD jumped. Obviously, this is all CPU related.

Renewed frenzy for shares of companies that produce CPUs necessary to power Agent. Yep. Meta's AMD. Meta is AMD's second biggest customer, accounting for 5.5% of its revenue. Wow.

Did not know that. Didn't know it was that high or slice. I knew they were a customer.

AMD shares have a renewed optimism. Let's see here. Trillion dollar club. If AMD holds gains through the closer, we did. This is old news. Let's see. AI agents gain broader consumer adoption.

CPUs could benefit from higher inference and orchestration workloads. Blah blah blah. That's fine.

So, here's everything on Meta. The company issued warrants to Meta and to OpenAI for the rights to purchase 160 million shares of the company, an exercise price of one penny per share. warrants vest in tanches based on GPU purchase milestones by AMD OpenAI and their affiliates.

Oh, wow. Lisa, what are you doing? Giving away the stunk. It's all right. She's getting deals, baby. That's what she's doing. She's out there getting deals. The opening eye warrant and metawar is exercisable through 2030 and 2031.

Meta multi-year agreements with each intending to deploy six gigawatts of AMD GPUs. Holy smokes, dude. It's actually really That's great. That is a huge amount of gigawattage. Six gawatt deal. A huge amount of dilution is what it is.

What's fascinating about the commitments is it's a fraction of what Nvidia has commitment committed uh commitments. So I've got 30 billion in commitments 30 billion on 5 trillion company and we've got estimates for AMD.

Let me pull the 27 revenue estimates. I want to say let me see here where were they? AMD is looking at 120 billion by 2030. Yeah, but what is our revenue estimate? Where is it?

AMD. AMD AMD. Oh, there it is. 81 $88 billion. So, $30 billion on $5 trillion company and 88 billion in revenue.

let's see that's fine acquisition here was a ZT group acquisition general purpose compute infrastructure four hypers scale computing companies that's useful acquisition supports the company's ability to deliver end-to-end AI solutions and accelerate AMD power provided uh compute for the cloud okay that's Good.

Client split. Okay, so data center split for AMD is $6.7 billion. Nvidia is like 12x that on data centers. And the idea is that CPUs can grow more here. That's kind of wild because Nvidia just did almost what a hundred billion dollar quarter.

I mean, let me go look at this graphic revenue. Let's go look at data center. So that's compute. Where's data center? compute. These are the segments. I guess it's the whole thing.

It's graphics computing network. It's going to be up here. $88 billion. So $88 billion versus this 88 billion for compute at Nvidia 6.7 billion here. Same quarter. That's 88 divided by 6.7 equals 13x.

Nvidia 13x the size, 5x the price. Uh the idea here the idea though uh AMD is trying to get to 50% of CPU market. Nvidia is forecasting 20 bill of CPU sales in 27. Uh total data center rev at AMD annualizes to I mean they'll probably grow this at 50% honestly.

So, or more. If I go with 50% growth, I'll just go 10 time 4. Probably 40 billion bucks. Call it 40 billion for data centers in 2027. Uh, Nvidia, that that's still that'd be twice Nvidia's level still.

So, AMD has has that exposure like has more They're probably going to scale their their CPUs way faster than Nvidia can, but Nvidia is trying to play catchup on this side. Okay, that is interesting.

So, this is going to be data center rev. That's the growth angle. You're paying for that on the stock. Now, we should be overbought also. Let's go see. AMD uh day chart. Yep, you're overbought.

And the week chart is 6971. You are a fraction from overbought. I mean, you're basically overbought, which is fine. This just a short-term technical, right? Not a big deal.

That's more on AMD. Warrants, we covered that. Other income, that doesn't matter so much. Gross margin. Ah, yeah, that's the other thing is their net margin, but gross margin, uh, absence of inventory charges, GPU products that were recorded in the prior year, favorable mix.

So margins go up on Oh, I already have this bookmark. Margins up on data center products because they make GPUs as well.

Okay, let's go look at the sheets. So this is the balance sheet. This is the cash flow statement. cash flow statement we have is I've got free cash flow of over $4 billion in six months.

I always love comparing because I think it's absolutely reasonable to compare these two.

That's what you got cooking with with AMD, which is fine. But to me, that's not bearish AMD. It's bullish Nvidia.

Metamuse has led to an explosion in CPU related stocks and boy there are a lot of opportunities in the stock market more so than just Meta Stock and AMD which absolutely crushed today.

Uh today you've got AMD up 9.95% officially a 1 trillion market cap. We had a call on this stock when it was at $452 and told course members, folks, this puppy's about to bounce off this line.

Juicy. Did not expect it to go this high this fast.

which is exactly why Nvidia got into the play. And a lot of people forget that Nvidia, while it's our core sort of GPU play, Nvidia is expecting to blow up their CPU competition for a pure play or more pure play like AMD. Although AMD also provides GPUs.

Let's talk about some of the numbers here. So, Nvidia is projecting $20 billion of CPU demand in calendar year 2026 alone. $20 billion dollar of just CPU demand alone would rival right now about three quarters of gross profit that AMD actually makes already.

It's worth noting that the total sales that AMD has in 3 months set at about 11.5. they basically had zero revenue at a year ago which actually makes AMD or sorry makes Nvidia a real competitor to AMD in the CPU space.

Now I'm not trying to bag on AMD. I think there's still opportunity in AMD. I mean just think about even the benchmarks alone their Helios system you're looking at versus the Vera Rubin 50% more high bandwidth memory 50% more scaleout bandwidth and about 10 to 15% more tokens per second so the Helios rack has been a great product versus Vera Rubin especially since people are wanting these CPUs right now so they've got a really good quality product and on some benchmarks AMD does actually beat Nvidia GPUs.

The Vera portion of the Vera Rubin, their epic Turan Fifth generation chip is right now projected to get to about 50% of all CPU TAM, total addressable market in data centers.

Not a lot of people actually talking about ARM relative to AMD. AMD sits at about a $344 billion market cap, but also a competitor. The more you get Nvidia and Apple taking off on CPU competition for AMD.

So AMD is doing x86, that's your Intel style, So AMD, think x86 and Intel. Now their target is to get to 50% CPU by 2030. Again right now they're a little bit lower than that. They're in the high30s.

They're expecting to grow revenue remarkably though. You got 72% revenue growth projected at AMD between now and next year. And they'll get to 88 billion of revenue for the entire year is the projection.

If you compare $88 billion for the entire year to just the revenue that Nvidia makes from data centers, Nvidia makes an entire AMD in revenue in one quarter. Now, Nvidia is five times the size per market cap compared to AMD.

We'll have some more comparisons between them, but this is why people think if the next frontier is CPUs and Nvidia is a $5 trillion company, what's stopping AMD from being able to rise as well.

So, you've got AMD, Intel, you've got ARM, Apple, obviously Meta, which is driving this insanity today.

AMD has commitments between now and the end like 2031 and after. Most of the commitments are up front here. AMD has commitments of about $30 billion. that those are commitments for they say right here to purchase wafers, substrates, and components from third parties.

Again, I think this is where you could see this is not this is not going to be a single horse race. This is going to be a multi-seor race where they are grabbing as much supply as they can for both CPUs and GPUs.

This is why you have AMD and Nvidia jumping on this bandwagon of trying to secure as much compute as they can now. But Nvidia is doing it. You know, they're they're getting twice as much size adjusted as AMD is probably because they have more of a capacity to pay and and they're able to write bigger checks essentially.

AMD's margins have skyrocketed. We've gone from 36 or sorry 39.8% margins to 53.7%. That's really good. But it's worth noting Nvidia is sitting at 75% gross. And AMD just came out of a loss with a 17.2% net.

Nvidia is bringing to their bottom line 63%. Operating income in three months at AMD was just $2 billion.

And and I say this not to say like, oh, Nvidia is better. I'm saying this is why the market thinks there's so much upside for AMD. Nvidia's valuation is dirt cheap right now. You're talking about a valuation that is a fraction uh of AMD's valuation.

AMD right now at at the price it just ran to is trading for about a 1.5 to 1.6 peg ratio. So you are more than two times as expensive at AMD right now as you are at Nvidia.

Is it possible then that either Nvidia catches up or AMD slows down? Maybe. I'm not calling for that. Like I wouldn't place a short bet on it.

Uh and the reason is we're getting a little overbought. And like the reason that could be desirable is we're getting overbought. I'm not saying it's time to sell it. I I'm not going to short it.

But if you look on the day chart, you are well overbought on a AMD right now at almost 73 on the relative strength index. And on a weekly basis, you just crossed 70 to 70.1. So, a little extreme.

What's really been running has been AMD and like Dell.

AMD doesn't have to do that because AMD can manufacture with Intel or Taiwan Semi. And the benefit of this is AMD is almost certainly always going to be a higher margin play than Intel.

Something to think about. It's not bagging on Intel. That's just a comparison.

and you'll be like one in one competition with AMD for uh x86 architectures because ARM is going to be the product of choice likely to stay this way for Apple and Nvidia and they are coming for the CPU market.

Everybody knows there's so much money to be made in CPUs, so the competition is coming. The pure play in fairness right now, AMD and Intel, and I think that's why they've done so freaking well right now.

They're partnering all over the place. AMD does also have some upside partnerships.

AMD offered call options known on a company to company basis as Warrants to Meta and OpenAI. So, this means Meta on the skyrocketing of AMD shares is probably now going to have to recognize a profit on their call options on uh AMD, which allow them to buy AMD at one penny per share.

and they get to exercise that anytime between October 5th, 2030 uh and between now and October 5th, 2030 for OpenAI and now through February 23rd, 2031 for Meta.

So, you do have Lisa Sue going out to companies like Meta and OpenAI saying, "Hey, can you guys go buy six gigawatts worth of our chips? In exchange, we are going to give you shares." that is dilutive but in fairness it's just a different form of circular financing compared to what Nvidia does which is investing directly into companies the extra cash flow that they have which they have much more than AMD to give uh and then creating demand as a result of that

AMD can't pull that off. Like they just they just don't have those assets. If you look at their free cash flow, they're at $4 billion in six months.

So instead, AMD is like, "We'll just take our clothes off. We'll just give you some of our shares instead. So, you know, we can't do a service for you. We'll just take our clothes.

We'll give it to you in a different way, basically." Okay, that's fine.

AMD doesn't have the margins that Nvidia does, but it's trying to get there. That's the whole point. Again, we already went through these margins right here. 62% net compared to 17% at AMD. That's the growth side.

People think Nvidia is basically topped on margins and topped on, you know, how much they can access. But people forget that Nvidia has this whole CPU business that's starting from zero coming to compete with AMD.

AMD is actually got or AMD actually has competition coming right up their butt for those CPUs and it's Jensen. He doesn't want to be out outbeat by Lisa and I get, you know, they're related, which is even the craziest part, but it's it's like a neck andneck horse race. It's really entertaining to see this.

But AMD is going to be a big beneficiary of of increasing margins. And you actually see that comment right here. Look at this. uh AMD Instinct which is their GPU product was recorded in the prior year uh or or a greater mix of those which led to uh higher data center revenue and therefore a favorable product mix for margins in English their margins went up because of these products like more data center sales duh you're going to make more selling to data centers than you are selling to consumers duh

AMD has also acquired a company called ZT Group that helps enable more generalpurpose compute infrastructure for hyperscaling computing companies. In English, yo, we are increasing our sex appeal for them data centers cuz the margins is good, dog.

It doesn't have to just be one winner here. This is a big W for AMD.

I get a little concern like I don't I have to be transparent. I would not add to AMD at this place. It could keep going. It just right now it feels a little toasty and a little euphoric.

If I look up AMD, we are at 747, which means right now we are trading for 82 times uh 82 times and then the growth rate is this is the current projection divided by 4 55 82 divid divided by 55.

Yeah, it puts me about 1.5 times. That's what we were saying earlier. That still gives it upside though. Its margins are nowhere near as good as Nvidia. So, you do have to give it a little bit of a lower upside uh on a PEG ratio basis, but this would still justify about a $944 stock.

To me, AMD actually still has 50% up on it. Oh, it's just got a lot of momentum right now. another thing. AMD Venice, which is one of their latest products, is expected to deliver 2.8x more agents per watt than Vera.

We're still early for AMD though I think it's overbought in the short term.