$ASML

ASML has a strong future due to reliable install base revenue and reduced China risk (sales dropped from 50% to 14%), justifying continued holding despite high valuation.

Bullish
“Google Has Fallen Behind”
Joseph Carlson After HoursPublished Sep 28 · 1 passage

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After Amazon, we have ASML is my next largest. This one grew into a massive position. It's a $126,000 position, 93,000 of that being gains. ASML has a very, very good future. We have the install base management, which is a very reliable continual line of revenue continuing to grow as they have more machines installed.

We have the geographic mix here. Now, this looks a little crazy, but it shows something here. When we look at for example China, when we look at ASML sales in China, just China, you can see that in around 2023 and 2024, a huge portion around 50% of their total sales were in China, which led investors to believe that there's a lot of concentrated risk here.

If there's regulations that could that could concern the ESML investor, well, there has been regulations. The sales percentage in China has gone down. More of it has gone to places like the United States.

More of it has gone to South Korea. more of it has gone to Taiwan. China has made up an increasingly smaller portion of the overall mix which derisks the investment in the future because if you believe that China is risky for ASML, well, it's less risky today.

It's gone from 50% down to 14. So there's simply less exposure to it. So despite the higher valuation, I'm continuing to hold this one.

What this channel has said about $ASML

Joseph Carlson After Hours has 2 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.

2026-09-28BullishThis one
After Amazon, we have ASML is my next largest. This one grew into a massive position. It's a $126,000 position, 93,000 of that being gains. ASML has a very, very good future. We have the install base management, which is a very reliable continual line of revenue continuing to grow as they have more machines installed. We have the geographic mix here. Now, this looks a little crazy, but it shows something here. When we look at for example China, when we look at ASML sales in China, just China, you can see that in around 2023 and 2024, a huge portion around 50% of their total sales were in China, which led investors to believe that there's a lot of concentrated risk here. If there's regulations that could that could concern the ESML investor, well, there has been regulations. The sales percentage in China has gone down. More of it has gone to places like the United States. More of it has gone to South Korea. more of it has gone to Taiwan. China has made up an increasingly smaller portion of the overall mix which derisks the investment in the future because if you believe that China is risky for ASML, well, it's less risky today. It's gone from 50% down to 14. So there's simply less exposure to it. So despite the higher valuation, I'm continuing to hold this one.
2026-08-24Bullish
Next we get to ASML, which is just behind S&P Global. It's holding number six. It's a $124,000 position with $91,000 in gains. ASML is one of my favorite stocks ever. I really love this company. It's so cool what they're doing. But I have to set a buyin target at $1,200. If we look at how the numbers play out here, we can assume very moderate assumptions for ASML. The earnings per share growth rate of 12.5%. I'd put a PE multiple of 30 on it. When we look at that, at a $1,200 buyin price, we get a 15.2% return. So, I believe with these assumptions, at $1,200, the stock would essentially double over the next 5 years.
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