CAKE is a bull thesis driven by Flower Child's 13% comp growth and rising free cash flow, which supports the current mid-20s valuation.
Jump to any passage
But there's one king has always got to be a king. And the king is Cheesecake Factory. Look at that threemonth move. 80 percentage points, ladies and gentlemen. Cheesecake Factory is up 80% the past three flipping flapjacking months. Holy smokes. Is that ain't no dang joke.
Fourth subject we'll get in here today is I want to explain why Cake stock has gone so insane cuz people look at that and like how is that like the greatest stock ever, right? 80% the past 3 months.
It's outperforming like anything you pretty much think of over the past 3 month span. Like what is going on there? There's some fundamental changes I need to explain what's going on there so everybody can understand that on a higher level.
Next up here, let's talk about Cake. What I'm going to do with this stock and why this stock has gone so insane, right? Because I don't think people understand it, but there's been a fundamental change in Cake's business model.
So, this stock's done very well. Up $213,000 in the public account. does not include dividends received from the stock. Right? What a banger. What a banger.
But if you know me and you know Cake and I've talked about the stock for the last several years, you know, I explain it like this. I break the company down very simple. They have the Cheesecake Factory concept.
It's an ATM machine. They don't grow a lot of locations of Cheesecake Factory nowadays. It might be a few a
but if you know what I talk about in regards to Cheesecake Factory the biggest opportunity is right here it's a company named Flowerchild right it's a brand they own here this is the opportunity by a mile.
The company's talking about they have the potential for 700 domestic locations over time. Currently, this particular brand only has 44 locations. Now, the other beautiful thing with this company is the margins set up to be phenomenal for this company, right?
And you have a significant amount of the business is to go business, right? So, great margins, a lot of to-go business. 44 locations. Right now, they're talking about going to 700 over time, right?
But the newest fundamental game changer that happened for Flower Child was in this most recent quarter. They reported comp sales of 13% growth on a year-over-year basis. Now, it comes after a 5% number the same time last year.
The 13% is a gamecher. The you haven't seen many companies ever put up that sort of comp.
and then we're starting to see that from Flowerchild 13% number that's that's insane insane that they put up that number coming off of a 5% comp that you know the same time last year like that's insane right so when I look at cake I see a consistent business model of growth, right?
I see stable gross margins just under 80%. I see a company that's uptick in their net margins and I see a company that's earnings per share set to boom for years to go in the future, right?
Additionally, look at the free cash flow and the free cash flow per share. This is going the way we want to see it go, right? Unlike the other companies, the big techs that used to be like this, like Cheesecake really does it, right?
They really do it. And so we're pouring off more and more and more money from this company which then they can invest into more and more locations, right? And do share buybacks and increase dividends and all those sorts of things.
Right now the might be the only push back for cake is the valuation has definitely risen in regards to stock P ratios now in the mid20s. Right? Listen, that's not bad in my personal opinion.
That's not bad at all when you consider the safety of the business model because of the Cheesecake brand and the ATM of that. Right? When you consider they got two concepts are expanding all over the United States of America with several concepts in testing phase, right?
And when you consider Flower Child's the most exciting concept to the restaurant category in my opinion since Chipotle,
And so, look at the operating cash flow, all-time highs for this company. So, cheesecake, incredible company, right, folks. Lot going on short term. There's going to be a lot more. It's going to be flapjacks all over the place.
What this channel has said about $CAKE
Financial Education has 3 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.