CHTR has upside potential if capex cuts enable debt reduction and buybacks, but faces risks from high leverage and subscriber decline.
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Then we have Charter Telecommunications Company. If you want to see a bad graph, this is a very bad graph. The stock hit its bottom two months or a month ago. Right now we're only slightly elevated.
However, if we look a little at the results, the results will still be bad, and will continue to decline; Revenues are declining, earnings before interest and taxes are declining, and capital expenditures are stable and have not yet begun to decline.
Yes, they have the assets, they have the scale, they have 30 million customers, but that number is decreasing. Mobile phone services are on the rise, so customers are leaving broadband and moving towards mobile.
Well , the video service is stable but also declining , and capital expenditures are still high, and are considered very high. That should change as capital expenditures decrease next year and beyond.
That should allow for repurchases, and more repurchases. They've temporarily suspended it, but let me show you something. They have repurchased 60% of the shares in the last decade.
What did the arrow do? The stock has done nothing practical since they started the buyback operations . The market value is now 17 billion, and this is my answer to everyone who tells me, "Sven, you should take into account the buyback yield and the share buyback yield ."
Okay, let me show you something. 70 billion has been spent over the past decade. Let's assume they paid off the debt. The debt is now 94 billion, 70 billion of which was used to pay off the debt.
The debt will now be 20 billion, or even less with interest , perhaps 10 billion or without debt. 5 billion in cash flows, add 1 billion in interest, that is 6 billion multiplied by 10, the market value will be 60 billion.
What does that mean ? Four or five times the current market value . No buybacks, only debt repayments and dividend distributions. Interesting. But again, with free cash flow growing due to lower capital intensity, if they achieve that and the business remains stable, it means doubling or tripling the value.
So, it's still good, but you really need to be prepared to adopt this strategy. If a recession occurs, problems arise, or interest rates rise, bondholders will control policy, and who knows what might happen.
Therefore, it remains a promising bet in this regard. Therefore, you need to see how this suits you .
Charter, its debts are huge, and things could get very bad.
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Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. has only this one call on this stock.