CRWD is undervalued relative to its potential; ARR growth could exceed 50% vs. consensus ~20%, supported by AI security tailwinds and strong fundamentals despite high valuation multiples.

And I personally not only have exposure to the stock we're about to talk about, but really think that the estimates that Wall Street has for this company right now are a joke compared to what they should be.

That means on paper with Wall Street the company looks overvalued. I think based on where we're going with artificial intelligence the company looks undervalued.

We bought Crowd Strike and some cyber security companies before this massive boom in Crowdstrike stock. Uh and we've seen a definitely nicely up on the crowd strike position right now.

I mean right now the stock just on the day is up 19%.

For example, we looked at CrowdStrike back in June. And when we looked at CrowdStrike back in June, here were some of the notes that we made. We saw total revenue increasing 25.6% 6% gross profit increasing even larger more rapidly calling saying it has a very nice larger PP operating expense growth only 148% and they're seeing substantial pricing power nice cash flow nice balance sheet

Specifically, Wall Street expects that annual recurring revenue for companies like Crowdstrike is going to expand at one level and the reality is it's expanding at a totally different level.

That expansion is already happening. For example, we uh CrowdStrike beat expectations on net new annual recurring revenue by 16.4% 4% over expectations, which meant that their total annual recurring revenue is now on pace to grow at 34% per year.

And Wall Street still only has this company's earnings per share growing at just under 20% per year.

I think their ex uh their their growth rates uh for annual recurring revenue could end up exceeding 50 60 maybe even 70%. That's also what some of their Falcon Shield products or their Falcon Shields are growing at at over a doubling on an annualized basis.

Goldman here says importantly we believe AI security will and then it breaks up goes over here disproportionately acrue to crowd strike because of the strength of its technology stack lightweight agent threat graph human reinforcement feedback loops and its willingness to acquire uh nextgen assets basically acquire other companies

Okay, this company is pricey right now. And you'll see, you kind of see what kind of expectations you have to have to go, oh yeah, okay, this is this is really justifiable.

Uh but Crowdstrike's also worth noting partnering with another company that I think is in its bottoming process and that's Cerebrris. Part of that is because they see the power of imperceptible latency in artificial intelligence that you can get with SRAMM chips.

They see the power of that partner with Cerebras to provide uh data uh AI detection and response for cyber threats and then responding to them much faster than let's say a threat actor or an enemy can actually respond to it.

But this is actually going to an annual recurring revenue or subscription model, which is exactly what Crowdstrike is. See, when Crowdstrike makes $6.6 billion a year, they start the very next year at $6.6 billion. any growth that they have net, you know, people cancelling is starting at that point.

And so that actually gives a company like CrowdStrike a justification for a much higher valuation than something like an Apple, right?

In fairness, CrowdStrike is trading for an 8 peg on growth estimates of 20%. I think those growth estimates are too low. If I use a 50% growth estimate, I'm trading for closer to what Apple is trading for.

And I think the growth opportunities here are even greater than that.

Flex uh flex um revenue is up double. That's that 2.29 billion. I think that's going to grow way faster than Wall Street thinks. And when we actually look at the growth that Goldman gives them, they're throwing EPS growth somewhere down here on their financial statements, they're throwing in EPS growth for the forward two years at least at 39 and 33% coming out of some of the holes that there have been given that the company has been teetering between profitability and losses.

We really had one profitable year. I think it was 2024. You went back to negative in 2025 and you were negative everything before that. I may be switching 24 and 25, but it doesn't really matter.

The point is you're just now really coming into profitability. And that's another reason why the company can look expensive.

And maybe it is expensive. Maybe you got to wait for a better opportunity to enter it, right? But look at the dock here. Annual revenue year-over-year growing at 25%. I think that's way too low. I think it's going to grow faster.

That's a big red flag and that's going to change. There are other endpoint management plays that are smaller. You know this is now already a you know multiundred billion dollar company.

I mean what's CrowdStrike going for right now? Crowd Strike right now is going for $230 billion.

I mean what's CrowdStrike going for right now? Crowd Strike right now is going for $230 billion.

And that's actually where CrowdStrike has another really cool opportunity because they get access to a lot of proprietary data. Okay. So the issue with data is and this is why crowd strike you know the big kind of keep winning is that when you have the data people come to you because you have the data.

So people are going to come to you because you have the data. Because when you have the data you're going to be able to protect them from more threats. The more data you have the more protection you could provide.

So people come because you have more data, but by more people coming, you actually then increase the amount of data you have because you now have more companies you have access to.

So, it's this crazy flywheel that sort of goes on over here and Frontier AI, you know, sort of uh and and cheaper access to Frontier AI all uh compounds this uh net revenue retention revenue, they they kind of miscellaneously disclose this like some quarters they talk about it, some they don't, but their net revenue retention was about 112%.

I do think there is a value in knowing that it doesn't have to be CrowdStrike.

But what's really neat here is uh they're collecting data from their endpoints and they're sort of recycling that into their pricing power. And so there's some really big value here which is uh exciting.

Then if we take a look at uh the this was really the claude boom right here at the end of Q1 there is a risk that some of the boom we're seeing in cloud usage 400% growth in claude usage 100% growth in custom agent usage on endpoints in recent months there's a potential risk that you know we went through sort of a boom cycle and that's going to end up tapering because of what we saw in Q1.

So, to be determined, if we actually go look at the financials, cash flow is uh pretty good. We've got about uh $1.8 billion of cash flow uh cash flow per year. That does work out to a less than 1% cash flow yield.

So, again, a little expensive compared to their market cap. So, who knows? Maybe this is the top, right? Still very excited about cyber security, but worth noting.

Also, just now turning to profitability. If I look at their uh balance sheet, I've got $6 billion of cash, $1 billion of current bills. That's cash and receivables, 1 billion of bills, which means I've got net5 billion of free cash.

If I come over and take off their long-term debt, I take off another maybe about $1 billion. So, I really have about $4 billion of free cash, which is good. I mean, in fairness, for a $200 billion company, it's, you know, maybe on the low side, but very good balance sheet. So balance sheet looks good.

Revenue another 25.8% growth in revenue year-over-year. Their costs on subscriptions are actually going down. 22.1% in indicates an increasing pricing power between revenue and subscriptions.

But also if you compare to last year their costs were 22.8% on subscription which uh subscriptions which also means we are getting uh greater pricing power.

Their gross profit margins are at Nvidia levels at 75%. Which is really, really good. Now, in fairness, they have a lot of GNA and they're just coming into profitability, barely coming into profitability.

So, there is some risk with that. That is going to be an asterisk for a lot of investors on Wall Street. Understandable.

Uh, you can notice that their R&D spend is up right now by 29.8%. So that's a little higher than revenue right now. Uh but their overall GNA and sales spending is up only 17.5% with R&D.

So if you merge that all together, their pricing power is growing. They're just investing more into R&D. For example, sales alone up 14% in expenses, but their revenue is almost double that at 25.8%.

It's pretty good. Maybe I'm too bullish, so just mentioning it.

uh data center exposure. They do also have a lot of data center equipment themselves. Uh you know, over a billion dollars of GPUs themselves. I think they lease their data centers, but they've got a lot of their own equipment.

They also have uh most of their revenue that comes from the United States. It's about 65% revenue coming from the United States. So, it gives you a little bit more color in terms of where it's coming from.

No country like no other country out there has more than um a 10% exposure to crowdstrike revenue. However, they have other regions like Europe or whatever that make up more than 10%.

How a company like Crowd Strike has the moat. And even though they're really pricey on Wall Street expectations, I think they're undervalued because people are not properly pricing in how important it is to have cyber security in your business.

And the fact that they're able to deploy this on like Microsoft or AWS.