Exor's massive discount to NAV presents an asymmetric investment opportunity with potential for returns via Ferrari compounding and eventual NAV normalization.

Xer is definitely continuing to trade at this massive discount to its net asset value. But as long as Exo doesn't drastically close the price and value gap, and as long as things are going well for Ferrari, we don't really see much of a reason to sell this business.

And even if it stays at a massive discount, well, Exor stock will increase as its NAV increases. The downside being that the discount widens even more. But I think it would be really unprecedented for the discount to get much wider for this type of situation where there are real valuable assets on the balance sheet that cannot be entirely written off.

So we said this before and you know we were maybe a little premature but it does still feel like an asymmetric bet here where we don't know what will happen with Ferrari but everything else being equal I think the discount to NAV can probably only move in one direction in the long term.

and then purely betting on the exor discount to nav to narrow it's just not nearly as attractive as an investment if you're not really excited about Ferrari because there's no law of finance there's no financial gravity that requires the markets to fully recognize exer's net asset value even if intuitively you would be pretty logical to expect that the market doesn't have to agree with your logic.

And so on the flip side, what's so attractive about this to me is the possibility of having two twin engines magnifying your returns with Ferrari's compounding, which has been very, very good. Plus, Exer's discount to NAV normalizing.

That alone could be a double. I think the opportunity here is still quite compelling, especially looking at it from Exor's point of view. But there was one other area that I want to discuss with you, Sean, on exor, and that was kill criteria.

So when I do a kill criteria, I just it needs two things. It needs a state and a date. So, generally the date I put about a year out, although sometimes if it's a really long-term bet, it might be longer.

And then the state is just based on pretty much a few KPIs. I think that would completely derail the thesis to a point where it's just very, very obvious that I'm wrong.

So, I want to pose this question to you. What would you need to see happen in Exor that would completely derail the thesis to a point where it's just glaringly obvious that we probably need to sell it?

Yeah, I think it's a great it's a great question because we can sit here and confirmation bias ourselves all day. into why it was a we still feel like it was a good decision to to buy into Exer.

Uh but at the end of the day, if we're sort of taking this open-ended bet on Exer's gap to NAV narrowing, we're signing up for an unknown period of potential pain and that's not necessarily a great investing practice.

And so if we were to see Exer make really poor allocation decisions, that would definitely be a signal at a high level to me that this just isn't worth the trouble and that the market was right to be pessimistic on their capital allocation ability, right?

And that what that could mean was maybe holding off on buybacks when they've had the chance to to buy their own shares at a massive discount in favor of acquiring some business that we deem to be mediocre and and then maybe overpaying for it.

That would be really disappointing and and that would validate again the market's thinking that Exer deserves to trade at a discount to NAV. And also, we didn't really talk about it today, but there's a lot of family drama with the Anellis who control Exer where you've got actually the mom suing her own son. And it's ugly stuff.

And well, it's a it's a low likelihood because the lawsuits do seem to be somewhat spurious. But if we did see John Elen lose control of the company for whatever reason or or be removed as CEO, I mean, that would be a sign that there's just too much going on behind the scenes to justify the investment in my opinion.

And so keeping an eye actually on some of the legal dramas in the background here would also be worth doing. This one by Exor CEO John Elcat. I learned not to be desperate in bad times and I'm learning not to be bullish when times are good.

So with Exor shares down 24% over the last year, I think John is practicing what he preaches by not making any overly erratic moves.

While the market can definitely be very punishing in the short term, if Exor's NAV continues to compound at its historical rate of about 12% annually, chances are pretty good that the shares will rebound at some point.

And with some of the extraordinary gains Exor has made in the past with some of the wonderful assets they have today, I think he's taken the right approach today to stay level-headed and to continue to provide shareholder value.

And today, that's exactly what we will be exploring with XR NB, a holding company with a significant stake in Ferrari. We might just be able to bet on Ferrari at a major discount.