GOOGL is not cheap at current price; hold but not buy; buy target $250 implies 14.1% CAGR over 5 years.
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Google, which is my current largest position. It's a $27,000 position with $113,000 in the green. Google today trades at around $347. So at 347, it's trading at a 26 Ford PE ratio and a 1.2% free cash flow yield.
I don't believe that Google's cheap today. I'm not buying it right now. I continue to hold it mostly because it's such a good company and I believe the future is bright for it, but overall it's not a company that I think is a screaming buy.
And the buy target that I've set for Google is $250, so around $100 less than its current price.
If we assume that the growth rate slows down to 12% earnings per share growth for the next 5 years, which a lot of people may argue and say Google's growing way faster than that, that's true, but they're going to have a lot of expenses.
They're building out mass amounts of data centers. They're spending all of this money on capex, which will transform into advertised expenses. So, I'm assuming that the growth rate is going to moderate.
And again, these are what I believe are conservative assumptions. We assume a 12% earnings per share growth rate over the next 5 years. Then we get to the appropriate earnings per share multiple.
Now, this is a bit of a judgment call. You can say that Google should trade at a 30p or 35 or 25. Again, I want to be very conservative here. I'm going to assume that it should trade at a 22 because if the EPS starts to slow down, maybe investors say, "Hey, look, it's not growing as fast.
We're going to we're going to trade it down to a 22 earnings per share multiple." So, this looks a little confusing because we're going with hypotheticals here, but just to make this very simple, if we were to buy Google at $250 and we had these assumptions that it grew at 12% and it had an EPS multiple of 22, that means that we would get a compounded growth rate of 14.1% over the next 5 years.
Which means that if we bought Google at that $250, we would about double our return from that buyin price. Google would trade from $250 up to $484. So, we'll make a note of this.
The buy target for Google to get that $10,000 additional cash is $250.
So, we'll make a note of this. The buy target for Google to get that $10,000 additional cash is $250.
Gan, you had the same view on Google. You thought CHACBT was gonna destroy Google. You said it was going to be a big sea change for Google. You said the 10 blue links were no longer going to survive and that Google is going to be a way worse company.
You were so bearish on Google when it was trading at $170 per share. It was is at a low price, completely depressed. Sentiment was terrible. And you went on to CNBC and you were talking all the time about Google, how bad this stock was, how it's not going to do well.
Now you own Google. It's one of your favorite positions. You go on CNBC seeing how it's going to go up after Google's stock price went up 100%. So you became more more positive sentiment when the reports showed that Google was just fine.
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Joseph Carlson After Hours has 2 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.