Alphabet holds a cost-of-acquisition advantage via existing user base and trades at a lower valuation multiple than Tesla.
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So, let's take a look at the details of this Waymo-Tesla dispute, and what it ultimately means for Alphabet and Tesla stock investors.
However, Waymo also announced three new markets on Tuesday, expanding its robotic taxi network serving customers in more than a dozen U.S. cities. So, Waymo is significantly ahead in terms of the number of vehicles it tests and the number of trips it provides compared to Tesla.
In other words, what this analyst is saying is that Waymo has built a network destined for obsolescence, and it is trying to defend it, but it can't do anything because its technology has become outdated.
Officials there went on to say that the cameras are amazing, but not enough, according to a Waymo vice president overseeing driving software, as stated on the company blog. For years, there has been debate about whether cameras alone are sufficient to achieve full autonomous driving, but after more than 200 million miles in the real world, the data is becoming clear.
Safe, large-scale autonomous driving operations require more. By combining data from cameras, lidar, and radar, the Waymo driver creates a rich, repeating world view that no single sensor can replicate.
Therefore, Waymo now has a fleet of approximately 4,000 robot taxis across 14 cities and provides 500,000 paid rides per week.
But the reason companies like Waymo and Tesla are working on driverless car technology is their confidence that they can bring this product to market at a lower cost than you get today with drivers in the vehicle.
If you were to include radar and lidar, it would certainly be safer, but if its cost were similar to what is available on the market today, it is unlikely to gain a large market share.
And that's the big question mark here. Who can bring this technology to market at a much more attractive price?
In this respect, Alphabet has a significant advantage in terms of the cost of acquiring customers because Alphabet already has billions of users of its products around the world.
Isn't that so? Therefore, it can easily market its self-driving car technology service to these users, while Tesla will need to spend huge sums of money on marketing to attract customers.
Alphabet may be able to match that because it operates on a very large scale. It can contract with producers and manufacturers to produce these vehicles at a cost similar to that at which Tesla produces its vehicles.
For investors, I think it's important to remember that Tesla is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 164, while Alphabet is trading at a forward P/E ratio of 22. Tesla's valuation is eight times that of Alphabet.
As for Alphabet, if Waymo's success is average and does not lead to a meaningful market share, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on Alphabet's stock price. I don't think the reaction will be anywhere near the levels of negative reaction towards Tesla.
So, it remains to be seen which of these two technologies will be the inevitable winner. With Alphabet, however, the decline is less significant.
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Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has only this one call on this stock.