IBIT is bearish; disillusioned crypto investors are not returning, leading to a post-rally fade.

Uh where we're not seeing a move to the upside is in this next one. The IB Bitcoin ETF. We got uh the vote on the Clarity Act yesterday did not go in the favor of the crypto industry and is on hold at least past the midterms perhaps into next year. Uh how are you looking at IBIT, Don?

Well, that's uh that's it for being uh from me being bullish there, Marley. Uh let's let's get into some of the bearish trades. That's where I live. That's what I know. And I bit is is going to be one of those bearish trades.

Look, you know, uh Bitcoin in general and crypto in general got a nice bid under it few weeks back and it has done absolutely unequivocally nothing since. So you you got your little rally here, but it just does not seem that some of the investors, if you will, that have been really beaten up, disillusioned by this particular product, Bitcoin in general, um they're not returning.

So, we rallied. As I said, it flattened out and it feels like we're actually starting to roll back over. And that's exactly the way that I'm going to trade it. I'm not going to overthink this one.

I just do not think that your uh your crypto investors are going to rush back into the marketplace. Uh IBIT is going to fade specifically with uh with Bitcoin kind of fading. And as I said, that's exactly the way I'm uh I'm going to trade it.

I'm going to go out though to the uh to the NOV 20 in this particular case. And the reason I'm going all the way out to the November expiration, you know, we can talk about, yeah, we got to pass through an election and there's a lot of uncertainty between now and then, but it just really comes down to I'm buying quite a large spread in a 40 some odd dollar product.

I bid is a 40 some odd dollar product. The NOV 20th expiration, I'm going to be buying the 40 puts and I'm going to be selling the 35 puts against it. Again, it's a full $5 wide put spread done for a $1 debit.

So, this is an outofthe-oney put spread. when you risk a buck to be able to make five. Although the trade has inherently a lower probability associated with it, that lower probability also, okay, coincides to a much higher payout if we're right.

In this particular case, being right, what does it mean? It doesn't mean just getting under 40. It means getting down in and around that mid30s level, which is uh plausible and well has happened in in quite some recent trade.

All right, Rick. So, let's look at it then. The chart for IBIT here. I mean, we can see it significantly fell off. We're back in October here, which is when we saw Bitcoin hit its highs up north of 120,000 or so.

We have made a bid of late, but nowhere near those levels. So, what are you seeing in the technical setup?

This might sound ridiculous, but believe it or not, I try to keep these charts more simple. So, uh when I have uh some of these lines sometimes like 47 is just like kind of the even number really kind of what I would do is more like kind of this general area that we had right here.

So like 46 to 47 because that was where we saw repeated lows here, highs here and highs here once again. So kind of it would be more like a resistance uh zone that we failed at recently here.

Now after this sharp rally to the upside, we have broken through our blue trend line. We have this uh more wedge type shape here with price falling downward. Uh our downward sloping trend line is in play.

Uh and we just have this not great piece of news for the crypto industry. So uh when we look at that here uh one area that stands out potentially could be this high that we saw our green line here near 42 as a supportive area.

It would be fairly close to our trend line as well. Uh from there perhaps another high here near 36 could stand out as an area to watch out for. So uh kind of the opposite of our last chart in which we have rallied uh we had a sharp rally to the upside. we kind of failed at this resistance level and then we just got as I said not the greatest news here for for our regulatory prospects changing here.

So now our moving averages are clustered together. We have our 521 and 251day EMAs exponential moving averages altogether from 40 to 44 or so. So if we were to break lower then the 21-day EMA representing one quarter is what could be tested near 4046.

RSI also moving lower in jeopardy of breaking its green trend line and the 50 midline at the same time. So if that were to happen uh concurrently with price, that would be more of a bearish confirmatory uh signal there potentially.

So our volume profile here shows 43 to 45 is the heavy trading area matching up with our recent range. Meanwhile, to the downside down here, uh roughly uh 35 to 39 is is the heavy trading area here with our point of control coming in at 3643.

All right. And right now, as we look at it, we're at 42.81 for IBIT. We are down uh more than a half a percent on the session.