Joby is the leader in its field; FAA approval is possible within 2-6 months, marking a major milestone.
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Joby has been working for about 15 years to bring a flying vehicle to market. The product is a hybrid between an electric helicopter and a regular airplane. It takes off like a helicopter, then flies like an airplane.
It doesn't travel long distances because it's electric, but it's quiet, which makes it completely different for urban environments.
The expected market for " Gobi" is short trips within cities. This is the type of market that Joby sees for its electric flying vehicle.
Joby is the most advanced company in this field. I am very confident of that. They have reached a stage where they are manufacturing aircraft or flying vehicles as we speak. Maybe one per month.
They went through the certification process until they reached the point where the next step was for FAA pilots to test it and begin conducting the tests that Joby had performed on the aircraft.
I think it makes sense for the Federal Aviation Administration to start operating those things, if not in two months, then maybe in four or six months. I don't know how long it will take after that, but it could take one, two, or four quarters of the year for it to be approved.
That would certainly be a huge achievement. It is the first new type of flying machine to be adopted. If that happens , it will be extremely important.
The stock has collapsed over the past two months due to two things. First, concerns about Joby Airlines. Will they need more capital?
The stock had been on a meteoric rise. Investors were excited about the approaching launch date. They flew their aircraft at the Dubai Airshow. They are flying here and there while others have nothing, and they have deals in Dubai and the Emirates to start service there this year .
When it operates regularly like a clock and launches every 5 or 10 minutes from multiple locations around the city because people don't mind a quiet takeoff, it can become... large numbers of users for it.
But it won't change the number of cars on the roads. Learn, the number of people who will use it will not change traffic patterns . It's not like taking a train carrying 5,000 people to the airport.
But the market is large enough to enable Joby to sell all the helicopters it can manufacture within the first five years of production.
Their plan is not to sell it. Their plan is to operate an air taxi service. This allows for a completely different revenue rate , because when you have to sell a $5 million plane 100 times a year to make $500 million, it is much harder to reach $5 billion than producing one that generates $2 million in annual revenue for a long period.
Another important thing to consider is that these things work today. It works today, not even with current battery technology, but with technology that was designed in these batteries two or three years ago.
Because that's the battery they offered to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for use in powering this vehicle. Today's batteries will be more efficient, and batteries three years from now will be much more efficient.
So, as each year goes by, the range of these vehicles increases, or the next vehicle on the production line will have a greater range, and if you upgrade the batteries, their range will increase .
So it's a very large and potential market, and look, that doesn't mean everyone will be using these vehicles, but if 50 of them are available in 50 cities around the world, you'll get to your destination quickly.
As you know, this has been in the works for a long time. It hasn't happened exactly yet , but they have been conducting some kind of test flights with this vehicle for two years.
I mean, there was one flying in Lower Manhattan a year and a half ago. They are flying it everywhere right now . I think they're flying thousands of hours a month now.
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