LYFT is undervalued at 5.5x FCF and well-positioned to aggregate AV demand, offering long-term upside.
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Those four stocks are Adobe, MGM Resorts, Dick Sporting Goods, and Lyft.
And finally, finally, one of my favorite most overlooked stocks in the market is price to earnings multiple. Don't look at this one on a trailing basis just 2.5. There is some one-time items in there. better metric is a forward price earnings multiple of about nine or for forward price free cash flow of about five and a half.
So really good valuation and look at this compound annual growth rate about 15% over the past 3 years.
And one of the things the market is worried about is that Lyft is going to be left out in the cold when more autonomous vehicles hit the market. Do we see any evidence of that today? Do we see Whimo taking market share or Tesla?
We see more gross bookings. That's going to be an indicator of the number of dollars that's going through the ecosystem. And the other thing is the number of rides or the number of riders.
Both of those things are increasing steadily as well.
So on a trailing 12-month basis, about a billion rides that Lyft has completed.
They've also expanded a little bit internationally, and they're doing that with the cash that's on the balance sheet. Again, here's another one of these companies that slowly over time has been buying back a little bit of stock.
Let's look at the diluted shares outstanding. And if we look at that on a quarterly basis, since the end of 2024, these numbers have started to go down a little bit.
So, not only do you have growth in the core business, you also have a decline in the number of shares outstanding. So, that should mean that long-term earnings per share is going to continue to increase.
Now, the thing that I like about Lyft's position in the market is that they're going to be able to be one of those aggregators of demand. This is going to be a very similar position to Uber, but just a different scale, smaller player than Uber, but they're maybe going to be able to play a little bit nicer with a company like like Whimo, who is a leader in the market with autonomous vehicles today.
They still have their partnership with Lyft. Things like it looks like things are breaking down with Uber. So, Lyft is going to be able to bring those vehicles to market, provide demand for those vehicles,
and I think the worst case scenario for investors in Lyft is they just simply get acquired. Maybe it's Whimo that acquires them. Maybe it's Zuks and Amazon as they try to scale that business. Lots of different potential buyers.
When you're looking at a company that's only trading for five and a half times its free cash flow, I think this is the kind of value stock that we're going to look back on being a great buying opportunity as the autonomous vehicle market scales over the next 5 to 10 years.
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Asymmetric Investing by Travis Hoium has 2 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.