Mastercard is a stable, cash-flow-positive company with a high appropriate multiple of 29; at a buy target of $450, it offers an 18.5% compounded annual return over five years, assuming EPS growth decelerates to 12.7%.
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Mastercard, which is my second largest position. It's 13% of the portfolio. It's nearly a $200,000 position with around $52,000 in gains. I really bumped up Mastercard a lot during the dip this year.
It's been one of the brighter spots in the portfolio. When I look at Mastercard today, it trades at $595 per share. And the buy target that I set for Mastercard is 450. So to put that in perspective, Mastercard would have to trade down from where it currently is year to date at the 596 all the way down to below the lowest point this year.
So it' have to have a healthy dip. Now again, some of you may say, Joseph, that's never going to happen. You're never going to buy Mastercard at that price. But it could happen.
When you look at companies, they trade around a lot. Some of them drop 20, 30% in a couple of months. Some of them dropped 10% after an earnings report. Companies can trade around a lot in a week's time.
Look how volatile this stock has been over the past 5 years. And this is one of the most stable companies in the world. Yet, we've seen jagged spikes and dips of 20 to 30%. And again, the goal here is to be very strict with this $10,000 to make it only go towards a company that really deserves it, that's really in a meaningful dip.
Now, if we look at how this breaks down, we can again plug in some assumptions here. And this again is a very conservative assumption that Mastercard's earnings per share growth rate slow down to around 12 to 13%.
We have it at 12.7%. Now Mastercard has been growing much faster. Their earnings per share growth rate is around 15 to 20% or even higher. So 12% is assuming a big deceleration in EPS growth.
With Mastercard, this is one of the companies that I actually believe the appropriate multiple for the company should remain relatively high at like a 29. It's just a really stable cash flow positive capital-like company.
They're not doing any big capex. They're expanding their mo and market share. They're growing into services. This is not one that I believe should trade down to the low 20s. So, we have an appropriate EPS multiple of 29.
That means that looking forward with these assumptions up here for the next 5 years, we would get an 18.5% compounded return every single year. That's a really high return. Compounding at 18 to 19% is crazy. that well over doubles your money in just a few years.
So, we add in Mastercard at the $450. So, we add in Mastercard at the $450.
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Joseph Carlson After Hours has only this one call on this stock.