Meta's potential entry into renting out compute is a bullish catalyst for its stock price.
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I wrote basically, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon have a good moat for the next 2 years. Note, they did not mention Meta. If Meta jumps in and turns their compute online, they'd be a possible unexpected entrant benefiting Meta and obviously taking some of the market share from AWS, Microsoft, Google.
I do have a little bit of exposure to Microsoft and Meta, both of those, uh and not to Google and Amazon.
So, we were right here on trade Okay, so so Meta entering, by the way, could also be a big catalyst for Meta stock. I'm a big believer of that. Uh I think that Meta has planted the seeds that they are willing like they basically sent out this little balloon.
Let me explain that a little bit more clearly because that might not be critically clear. So, I think based on the conference calls that uh Mark Zuckerberg has had with employees and also the commentary that he's had on uh earnings calls, I think that Mark Zuckerberg basically suggested, "Hey, if somebody pays us enough, we'll rent them compute."
And so, what he's really done is he's taken the shell of meta and said, "Our compute, it's our money, they're our chips." And he kind of just like a couple months ago was like, "No, I'm going to I'm just going to raise a little balloon here.
And I'm going to say, "Hey, you know what? For sale." And I'm just going to kind of like let it hang out over there. And somebody bites on this basically fishing J-hook. Uh not to be confused with J hold the coupon code.
Somebody bites on this, I think he's going to take it. And that might be pretty unexpected for how the market is valuing uh meta right now. That's my thing. Again, maybe I'm biased.
I mean, I'm not trying to show Microsoft you know that exposure that one, too. Uh I think that's that's just an honest potential based on the seeds that have been planted here.
We estimate the required gross output from AI cloud plus LLM margin is 1.4 trillion by 2028 to justify the current AI capex plans ex-meta.
Assuming another 1 trillion dollars of AI capex ex-meta in 2028, AI demand will have to grow 2.2 trillion by 2029.
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