Speaker declines to buy META at $750, waiting for a lower price to achieve a 15% return target.

Meta's stock has already generated enormous wealth for investors, but something very wild happened earlier this year. The stock collapsed, it collapsed hard. Investors were panicking because of the lawsuits and the enormous amount of money Zuckerberg was spending on artificial intelligence, and then everything turned upside down.

Meta has just launched a brand new artificial intelligence product called "Muse". The app jumped to become number one in America, and the stock exploded with a rise of nearly 30% this month alone, including an 11% jump in one day.

What if Meta's $145 billion bet on artificial intelligence actually pays off?

Let's take a look at this wild year because the graph tells the whole story. Meta started 2026 at a level of approximately 650. In late January, the stock jumped to $737 thanks to impressive earnings. Then in March, it collapsed to around 525.

Court rulings about how its apps affect young users have alarmed everyone around the world . While ordinary investors were panicking, many of Wall Street's smartest investors were already buying.

Meta is one of the most popular stocks held by high-profile investors, and in the last quarter at least 14 of them added to their holdings. Viking Global increased its stake by more than 75% .

David Tepper added more than 50%, and Bill Ackman added even more during that period as well.

Reputable names like Pat Dorsey and Dodge & Cox have done the same. Meanwhile, Lee Ainsley's Mavericks opened a brand new center .

But while the public was fleeing, the professionals were quietly buying. The stock recovered towards the 680 level in April as the underlying advertising activity continued to perform well.

Then he was hit again. In late July, despite impressive sales, the stock fell by about 10% because its free cash flow collapsed by 91% as Zuckerberg poured tens of billions into artificial intelligence.

By early September, the stock was stuck at around 578. Then came "Muse". It was launched on September 8, and took off like a rocket, and since then Meta's stock has risen back to around 741.

Meta's actual business has not collapsed even once this year. In fact, it continued to improve. What collapsed was investors' perception and confidence in how Zuckerberg would spend all that money.

Perhaps Muse just gave them a reason to believe again, which is exactly why the stock went from "dead" to "very hot" in just a few weeks. So, let's take a look at this business ; it's a real monster in every sense of the word .

In the last quarter, Meta's revenue grew by 28% to nearly $61 billion, and its apps, Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Oculus, are used by an astonishing 3.6 billion people worldwide every day.

Meta displayed 14% more ads and charged 12% higher fees per ad at exactly the same time . Achieving both increases together means that advertisers are desperate to get advertising space on Meta.

This is an amazing pricing power and it generates huge sums of money, having produced operating cash flows of around $32 billion.

Here's what many people overlook . Meta's artificial intelligence is not just a distant dream . It actually makes business better right now . Its AI- powered advertising tools operate at an annual rate exceeding $75 billion.

It also now uses artificial intelligence to sort and recommend almost every post on Instagram. This creates a fantastic self-propelled loop. Smarter artificial intelligence leads to better recommendations, which makes people keep browsing for longer, creating more advertising space , and meaning happier advertisers who pay more money.

Artificial intelligence is quietly working to enhance the money machine right now . Because Meta can build a feature once and deploy it instantly across Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, one good idea can reach billions of people overnight.

In fact, I once heard an interview where Mark Zuckerberg talked about how great their workspaces are, where they can literally give one developer a task and say, "Listen. Try an idea and apply it to 50,000 people, and we get the data very quickly and can see if it will scale properly ."

That's an amazing power. So, if the business was this strong, why did the stock drop?

Spending. Meta plans to spend up to $145 billion this year building artificial intelligence, including data centers, chips, power, and everything else needed. In just one quarter , it spent over $31 billion, and that is precisely why its free cash flow, the money left over after all capital expenditures, collapsed by 91%.

It fell to less than $800 million, although the business itself still generates nearly $32 billion in cash.

$32 billion came in and almost nothing was left because it was reinvested entirely directly in building artificial intelligence. This is in addition to all the money that Meta was already wasting elsewhere.

Reality Labs, the division responsible for virtual reality headsets and Metaverse, continues to lose more than $40 billion every quarter. This has been the case for years and has never stopped.

So, this is the fundamental question that determines everything for this stock. How much of this enormous expenditure is considered temporary? Is it a temporary build for the future or a permanent and eternal cost of staying in the artificial intelligence race ?

If it is mostly temporary, the true strength of Meta's earnings is much higher than it appears now. If it is permanent, the cost of running the entire company becomes much higher .

Now, the star of the show, "Muse". Launched on September 8, " Muse" is not just a " chatbot" that answers questions. It is an artificial intelligence agent that actually does things on your behalf.

It can send emails , book your trips, fill out forms , shop, organize your projects, and even continue working on a task after closing the app.

Don't think of it as just a search box, but as a personal assistant that quietly takes care of your to-do list. This is where Meta's enormous advantage lies . ChatGPT proved that people want artificial intelligence, but Meta has something that OpenAI does not.

Billions of people already use WhatsApp, Instagram and Facebook every day. Muse can live directly inside WhatsApp. So, instead of downloading a new app, you simply message your smart assistant like you would a friend.

That's why it jumped straight to become the number one free app in America, surpassing even "ChatGBT".

But here's the part that really matters financially. Muse has paid plans for around $20 and $100 per month. Meta has lived almost entirely on advertising throughout its history.

Basically, only one way to make money. This will be her first truly socialist business where people pay Meta directly each month. For a company of this size, a completely new way to make money is a really big deal , especially when you already have more than 3.5 billion monthly users.

Now, here's the downside or the challenges facing "Muse". For an AI agent to be truly useful, you must give it the keys to your digital life ; Your email, your calendar, and your credit card.

This requires a tremendous amount of confidence.

Meta says she built strong security walls around him. It operates " Muse" in a secure, enclosed area with a second artificial intelligence monitoring all its actions. It promises that it will not use your conversations with "Muse" in its advertising system.

But it also delayed the launch to fix security issues, and Amazon has already blocked the news from making purchases on its site.

So, the real question is not whether the news is intelligent, but whether people will trust "Meta," a question that has been asked in the past. And the news is only one piece of the puzzle.

There are two other parts that deserve your attention. First, Meta finally started making real money from WhatsApp, a giant it had barely come close to for years. Its other revenues, including WhatsApp, jumped 73% in the last quarter.

Secondly, her smart glasses achieved a remarkable and surprising success. Meta now owns about 76% of the entire smart glasses market , having sold millions, and launched this lineup with Ray- Ban.

So, if AI agents really do get going, those glasses could become much more important because they can see what you see and hear what you hear. Meta has more opportunities for success than almost any other company that exists today.

Now, before we get to the dangers that everyone is talking about, here's a danger that people have forgotten. Meta's money-making machine depends entirely on one thing: your attention .

Every dollar you earn comes from browsing people, and "Meta " doesn't have your attention. She rents it, and she has to get it back every day.

TikTok is still fighting for those same hours. And also YouTube. And now there is a new competitor. People have started spending real time inside AI applications such as "ChatGPT". Time they used to spend browsing.

This is important because Meta cannot raise ad prices by 12% every quarter forever if people are looking elsewhere. Work is not fragile today. As we said, 3.6 billion people using it daily is not a fragile thing, but attention is the one thing that Meta cannot buy with 145 billion, and that is worth watching.

Now, the biggest real threat facing Meta is not a competitor, it 's the organization. In August, Meta agreed to pay up to $18 billion over 10 years to settle claims from nearly every state about how its apps affect children. Although she did not admit to any wrongdoing.

Europe is also taking strict measures with rules limiting how Meta uses your data to target ads, and even proposals to ban children under 13 from social media altogether.

Australia recently passed a law banning children under the age of 16 from using social media. A German court even ruled that Meta could be held responsible for fraudulent ads leaking onto its platforms, and regulators began monitoring those smart glasses equipped with a camera and microphone due to privacy concerns.

Here's why this is important. Meta's money machine relies on interaction and data, and its biggest risk is not one huge fine. Rather, it is the slow accumulation of rules that may force Meta to change the very products that make it so profitable in the first place.

Hey guys, for those of you who have our programs, I'd like to remind you that knowing the ups and downs scenarios is easy. If you go to " Meta" and click on our artificial intelligence here , then choose to display up and down scenarios, many cases will appear while you search for the company.

Guys, Meta's stock price is $750, but the company's true value is here, $1.92 trillion . This is the price you pay for the company when you buy the stock at $750.

The next thing I always do is check the value of the facility. The difference between these two figures is approximately $90 billion. This essentially represents their debts . If we take their money and subtract it from their debts, they will still have $90 billion left.

You should remember that this company still generates $40 billion in free cash flow annually, but that number will decline . The question is, if capital expenditures are permanent, those debts may pose a bigger problem than they need to.

Next, excellent returns on capital. This is a measure of quality. It shows that the company is of high quality and manages its cash flow very well. There is one thing I don't like about Meta, and that is their declining profit margins over the past ten years. 32% annually over the last ten years, 31% for the last five years, and slightly less than 30% for the last year.

Guys, capital expenditures immediately affect free cash flow. Not yet based on net income . It takes several years for it to affect net income. So, when I see a slow decline, I should ask this question.

Is the reason the previous capital expenditures that are finally starting to pay off ? Or have they started spending more on general expenses? These are the questions you should ask.

Now , what is impressive about this? Look at this revenue growth, guys . 24% annually for the past three years, 17% annually for the past five years , and 26% for the past ten years.

Amazing growth that has already accelerated over the past five years .

past three years, 17% annually for the past five years , and 26% for the past ten years. Amazing growth that has already accelerated over the past five years . Their free cash flow multiple is 47 times, which doesn't really worry me because their free cash flows are very low.

Their price-to-earnings ratio is currently 28. It's a bit high, but again, is it expensive? I can justify that because they are present in almost every home around the world every day.

This is something that is difficult to achieve, and extremely difficult to overcome . If I gave you $200 billion today and told you to surpass WhatsApp, Instagram, and Facebook, you would have a hard time doing so.

Okay, let's take a look at the eight pillars. Let's see what story she has to tell us. Okay guys, we have some good stuff here.

We have high returns on capital, low equity, high cash flow over the past five years , high net income, high revenues, and low debt. Our only problem is the five-year price-to-earnings ratio and the five-year free cash flow price-to-price ratio .

But remember, if they can significantly increase their profits and revenues , the price could be cheap.

Our only problem is the five- year price-to-earnings ratio and the five-year free cash flow price-to-price ratio . But remember, if they can significantly increase their profits and revenues , the price could be cheap.

The problem I am facing is, as we said before, that their profits are declining.

Analysts, whose estimates I always advise caution when dealing with, expect earnings to grow from $31 per share to $52 per share over the next four years. This is a very large growth .

It is true that the trajectory is unstable and fluctuates, but it remains good growth for the company.

And look at this revenue growth. 27%, 20%, 18%, 18%, and 8%. So, there is still good revenue growth for a company of this size.

I'm going to use 6%, 10% and 14% revenue growth rates for the next ten years. This gives me room to assess the possibilities: what if they perform poorly, and what if they achieve great success?

Next, profit margin and free cash flow. I have set the percentages of 27%, 31% and 35%. They clearly performed better than 27%, but they did not exceed 35%, and their profits are declining.

But I hope that the situation will stabilize in the next ten years and start to rise again as their operating expenses decrease compared to their revenues.

I think Meta is a better company. Why? It is huge, has the potential to continue operating, and has a high return on capital. So, for me, I should put a P/E ratio higher than the average of 15 or 16. I put 18, 22, and 26.

Keep in mind that I don't care about its current P/E ratio, or what it was 5 years ago, and I don't care about anything other than comparing it to the S&P index in the long term.

Finally , I calculate the intrinsic value with a yield of 9.5% without a safety margin. What I'm trying to do here is not say that this is the return I want, but rather the return that tells me the value of this company.

If it will keep up with the market, what is its value?

A company that everyone online had a loud opinion about, turned it into a number, into a price, and not just a story or a feeling. There is a man in our community named Kenan. He bought shares of Meta at a price of $137.

Not because he had a hunch about Mark Zuckerberg, but because he did the calculations using "Stock Analyzer ," the same tool you just saw me use on your screen.

When Meta's stock plummeted and court headlines were everywhere, did you have a specific price in mind? Or did you just have a story related to a feeling and a finger hovering over the buy button?

Based on a return of 9.5%, we have a low price of 500 , a high price of 1555, and an average price of 890. Based on the average assumptions if they occur, I would achieve a return of slightly less than 12%.

For Obal , that would have been great, but my life is different now. I own a lot of real estate. I have businesses, and I realized I have more than I need, so I want to be more selective .

I want to wait and only buy companies when they give me a 15 % return.

Press the analyze button. I need to be a little patient here. I have a low price of 340, a high price of 1000, and an average price of 590. For me, the price was good, and that's why I was selling put options at prices below $600 before the price went crazy.