MSGS is now fairly valued with the NAV discount closed; the investment case is weak due to dependence on team performance.

this is one of the this was actually the first company we covered on the podcast. Um, I didn't want to set a precedent of of of buying into businesses that didn't have great, you know, underlying operating uh uh metrics where like, you know, there is a speculative component of it of you're you're saying, hey, you know, billionaires are going to keep getting richer and they're going to, you know, bid up the price of of these uh trophy assets more and more and more.

And then there's some tax loopholes that you do that you don't do or don't know whether they'll uh they'll close.

And so anyways, um, in hindsight, being able to have bought, uh, at a 50% discount to Forb's estimated NAV, uh, relative to the market cap of the company, that was, uh, really attractive and and we just missed that. Uh, I was too I was too cautious.

And so today, now that the Knicks uh, have had success, they, you know, won um, you know, they won the NBA uh, finals. Um, now that discount has has closed dramatically. Uh, so there's only a 20% discount roughly.

Uh, and when you think about the friction costs and some of the uncertainties and the fact that, you know, the Forbes estimate isn't exactly isn't 100% precise, that's kind of a rambling way to say that u MSGS is is probably about fairly valued.

Uh, so this is just one that was really interesting. We missed it. Um, I don't know. I I doubt given how good the Knicks are have done recently that we'll get um an opportunity.

You know, there's really a correlation with like the sentiment around how the teams are doing and how wide the discount becomes. Um, and so it's sort of a mean you're you're betting on the the sports franchises to continue to appreciate in value, which at a high level, you know, I'm comfortable with.

Uh and then in last year if we had bought it uh we would have been betting on um a mean reversion in the discount

you know and I was thinking about it actually yesterday of whether not buying was a mistake. Um and the reality is you just don't know when these discounts are going to close and how long it's going to take.

So you don't you don't know what you're signing up for and that's not exactly great um great investing practice.

It just so happened that uh you know the Knicks um had an incredible season um and and and went all the way. Uh and so that you know dramatically changed the narrative around the franchises.

Um but if they had had a if the team had tanked, if they'd had a terrible season, um the discount probably would have stayed at 50% for another year.

And then now you're betting on um your investment is dependent on the performance of a basketball team, right? Because the majority of the NAV is is in the Knicks, not the Rangers.

Um so like that just that doesn't feel like uh you know, we take a lot of inspiration from Buffett and Munger. Like it doesn't feel like a bet that they would make. And so that was kind of the lens I I came through.

So um in hindsight, we missed out on it. Um you know, I had a gut I was really tempted to do it. Um And my intuition was was to focus on just finding uh well-run profitable businesses, you know, compounders, not trying to do these mean reversion plays.

Um and then the Knicks had a great season and we saw a dramatic mean reversion and the stock has done very well. So I think to me now the opportunity is gone. So I would put it I would put an F.

>> um I think it's super cool to say that you can buy shares in the Knicks and Rangers as somebody who's a you know a sports fan who likes basketball and hockey, but um in terms of my inclination to add it to the portfolio, um it's it's down there at the bottom with Nike for sure.