NBIS is not the speaker's preferred investment due to long-term rental sustainability risks, despite strong current liquidity.

Nebus gets an upgrade from Goldman. It's now a $ 59 billion company. It's pretty small as a NeoCloud. Still down from peak of $300 by oh about 27ish% down from peak.

So this was the note on Nebas. This uh I want to I think this was Goldman latest commentary on continued strong demand for Nebius AI infrastructure. Now keep in mind Nebius just had the uh Gro partnership announced with Nvidia.

So Nebius uh is providing the first Grock uh production chips uh production chips for ultra fast tokens, right? That's your cerebrous comparison.

Competitive customer wins and robust pricing reinforce demand visibility. Management indicated that Q2 revenue benefited from higher utilization, growing contribution from higher margin asset light offerings including token factory and recent acquisitions.

Uh more importantly, company characterized demand as exceptionally strong and four landmark billion dollar contracts secured during the quarter, all of which were competitive wins.

Customers already had incumbent suppliers but selected Nebius for nextgen requirements, blah blah blah.

company characterized demand as exceptionally strong and four landmark billion dollar contracts secured during the quarter, all of which were competitive wins. Customers already had incumbent suppliers but selected Nebius for nextgen requirements, blah blah blah.

Uh let's see here. deals closed in Q2 at over 20 billion per gigawatt with a sub two-year payback period. That's actually really good. Uh let me see here. How am I going to do this?

Open with It's like the one app that I wish they had on Windows is PDF Expert. Okay, let's see here. Recognize text. Recognize. Shouldn't be hard these days anymore to scan that out.

All right. It actually didn't do that great of a job. No, it's okay. Yeah. Okay. No, it's fine. It's fine. All right. This is This is good. Deals closed in Q2 at over 20 billion a gigawatt or 20 million a megawatt and sub two-year payback period are expected to begin contributing late Q4.

That's very good. It's okay. What is this? Moreover, commercial terms also remain firm with Nebius negotiating shorter duration capacity agreements uh at the 40 to 50 range which should uh contribute to topline um you know revenue blah blah blah.

Okay, so this is kind of important to consider. So let's see here. Let me see if I can insert a page because this this is where the the buildout becomes the concern.

Deals closed in Q2 at over 20 billion a gigawatt or 20 million a megawatt and sub two-year payback period are expected to begin contributing late Q4. That's very good.

Moreover, commercial terms also remain firm with Nebius negotiating shorter duration capacity agreements uh at the 40 to 50 range which should uh contribute to topline um you know revenue blah blah blah.

Uh let's do like 28. There we go. Okay. So, um short-term pricing uh for shortage demand reiterated here at 40 to 50 billion per gigawatt. Uh but uh shortage pricing isn't long-term pricing and uh there's a limit uh in my opinion how much you can actually uh make um or how much you could actually provide at short-term prices.

So, um short-term pricing uh for shortage demand reiterated here at 40 to 50 billion per gigawatt. Uh but uh shortage pricing isn't long-term pricing and uh there's a limit uh in my opinion how much you can actually uh make um or how much you could actually provide at short-term prices.

Uh but uh shortage pricing isn't long-term pricing and uh there's a limit uh in my opinion how much you can actually uh make um or how much you could actually provide at short-term prices.

This is what we want to watch for SpaceX, right? This matters for SpaceX and the entire cycle.

So if we are I will say 20 is pretty good. So if this is 20 okay and this is 50 and then let's say this is eight. Okay. And then this is you know sub eight over here. Sub8 sub 8 uh gets recession scary.

Uh 20 is 20 is great and likely realistic uh for now unless uh anthropic rolls over and uh 50 this 30 to 50 range 30 to 50 range is Elon's target. Okay. So, I'll just sort of write that right here.

And then 50 50 is glorious. Okay. 50 50 scaled up is glorious. Uh AI trade booms keeps going. Probably requires AGI or robotics or something that really um skyrockets Frontier demand, you know. So, so this I think is unlikely you know

I will say 20 is pretty good. So if this is 20 okay and this is 50 and then let's say this is eight. Okay. And then this is you know sub eight over here. Sub8 sub 8 uh gets recession scary.

20 is great and likely realistic uh for now unless uh anthropic rolls over this 30 to 50 range 30 to 50 range is Elon's target. 50 50 is glorious. Okay. 50 50 scaled up is glorious.

Uh AI trade booms keeps going. Probably requires AGI or robotics or something that really um skyrockets Frontier demand, you know.

So, so this I think is unlikely you know I I would call this 50 uh 50 you know possible in short term but for larger contracts uh not likely in my opinion uh for for larger future contracts like I know Google on SpaceX pulled one off uh 30 would be great as well.

So that pricing is I think very important is like where do we end up with with that pricing for longerterm contracts. This does give us a little bit of insight. I do also note that they say here Nebius is negotiating in this range.

See here they said deals closed at just over. Well, we don't know if it's just over or what. Uh but I think that's really interesting wording.

that uh they closed deals at 20 and are negotiating short-term at 40. That's a meaningful difference.

Capacity buildout accelerating, underpinning faster uh power procurement. Capacity deployed late Q2 is expected to begin contributing to revenue in Q3 with existing customer commitments and capital investments, providing visibility into the 2026 buildout.

preparations for materially higher deployment in 2027. So far so good for the AI trade. Importantly, Nebius will deliberately retain some 2027 capacity rather than contracting it today.

Why? Reflecting management's confidence in future pricing. That sounds like bull crap.

That sounds like they're holding out for um those 40 to 50 contracts, right? Like what? That that's Yeah, I think that's exactly what's going on here. That doesn't really make sense to me why you would why you would do that.

If you're sitting on capacity and you're like, "Oh, we're just going to purposfully squat on it to get higher pricing. You're those people, those customers could just go to somebody else."

Then potentially eventually they will be able to, you know, now they're still we're still in a bit of a shortage.

The switch to Bloom fuel cells is expected to enhance the project from a community perspective. What is this? Oh, this is Vinland, New Jersey building completed earlier this summer.

Oh, so they already have the fuel cells. Oh, that's cool. So, Nebius is using the Bloom fuel cells as well. Expected to enhance the project from a community perspective, providing reliable power with low emissions, allowing Nebius to unlock and expedite future site development.

management noted significantly more capacity is expected to be deployed in 2726 with the company securing access to hundreds of megawatts of behind the meter uh generation. Well, that's good.

Nebius upgraded its target to have 5 gawatt versus 4 gawatt prior of contracted power by fiscal 26 given it continues to secure power faster than expectations.

See this is what I thought is very interesting. Remember uh the Sachs argument is oh politics is going to slow down data centers. I don't think so. I think they'll be able to go and and find exactly where they're going to be able to um you know build these as fast as possible.

Finally, the company is adding ARM and CPU deployments along its GPU fleet to address new agentic AI workloads.

Nebi has highlighted multiple sources of capital available to fund its growth, beginning with operating cash flow. Well, that's probably coming from deposits. Cash flow probably equals deposits.

Q2 contracts. Oh, well that's pretty good. Q2 contracts cover 50 60% of the associated capex and management targeting for the That's good.

70% of deals in Q2 included upfront payments. Yeah, there you go. Resulting in 9 billion of upfront uh capital. Long-term contracts provide the basis for assetback financing. Nibbia secured $775 million assetback facility backed by contracted cash corporate debt and equity linked financing sources.

Well, so this is basically issuing stock and debt. Issuing stock and debt asset light model.

Higher utilization continues to benefit product profitability. Yeah, keeping the GPUs up online more supported by improving infrastructure efficiency, strong demand. The capacity effectively selling out as it comes online. Well, that's good.

Looking ahead, Agentic Solutions are expected to represent an increasing share of revenue. I'm not convinced that you need these massive clouds for for inference. Uh IMO inference ends up moving substantially in-house for companies on openw weight moves uh in-house for openw weight models you know think about the mona uh or Thomas Reuters is doing in-house on Quen uh etc.

MB's new asset light mah pricing also remains constructive. Recent capacity auction clearing 15% above previous peak price for Blackwell GPUs. That's the frontier side. So that's the frontier presumably.

Longerterm management expects capacity coming online at Nebia own data centers to begin contributing to margin improvement for the second half.

Changes to our estimates increasing topline. We're a buy with a price target of 328 uh for this company. I'm pretty sure this is Goldman. Yeah, Goldman Sachs. So, you know, they actually see quite Yeah, they see like 50% upside on this company. That's that's a lot by from Goldman.

Oh, look at that. Q's are almost up a percent. Uh we got a 96 cent rejection, I guess, on uh 7:15. That Marll bounce continues. Look at that juice. Oh my gosh. Right at my line.

Oh, the We just need to move the lines higher. Uh, Nvidia up 28 right now. Yeah, Dick Sporting Goods down. I heard they were also talking about weak uh weak shoe sales. Yeah. So, it's uh it's the consumer plays, man.

Like I like if if if AI is what's booming the economy when we would be in a recession without AI, then I I don't want to invest in the other stuff uh for for the um uh the stock market at least.

Uh obviously much more allocated to real estate. Uh but that's mostly because I think that's your uh that's your 10-year play, your 2032 play. So got you got to plant seeds early.

What do they say? Best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. Next best time is now. Anyway, uh okay. So, what else? Let's see here. That's Let's pull up the actual Nebus uh earning stocks and let's see what what this company's on about. Let's also do a technical retracement on it.

Let's pull up the actual Nebus uh earning stocks and let's see what what this company's on about. Let's also do a technical retracement on it. So, I've got this guy. These are extension lines that we're actually sitting on right now rather than retracement lines.

We did a sort of bottomish during liberation to uh top in October. the stocks perform great even even with this uh you know recent post Leo fold selloff.

Okay, so Nebius Nebus Nebus Nebus Nebus in uh earnings report. Oh wait, this is not a 10 Q. That's disgusting. What is that? That is a press release. I don't want that crap. I want the SEC formatted 10 Q the way it's supposed to be.

Report. Oh, it's reports a foreign issuer. Where are they based out of? This is lame. I hate that.

So, they released their Q2 financials on August 12th. And so, now you have to find their financial filings as a uh 6K, which is stupid. Whatever. Not as ideal. It's okay. I'll stop complaining.

I got it. Yeah, I got it. Okay. So, download and this earnings report. the earnings report.

Alrighty. See what we got. Kind of excited to see it. Okie dokie then. Here we go. Here it is. Yeah. Let's start at their balance sheet. This is always where where the the the BS lives.

See what I did there? All right. Total current liabilities. So I've got that's deferred revenue of 275. So I got 1527 minus 275.5. I've got about $1.25 billion in bills to pay.

That's a lot of money in bills. How much cash do we have? Oh, we got good cash, though. Look at that. 3.7 billion in cash. That's pretty good. 720 mil in accounts receivable. Also decent.

I've got long-term debt, long debt of 4.1 billion. So, the balance sheet is okay, right? Near-term uh near-term deris, but uh will likely take on much more uh long-term debt. But the the near-term isn't that bad.

You know, it's not like they're, you know, you know, Spirit Airlines in terms of the balance sheet. The spirit the balance sheet is good for for this company.

Okay. Where's our cash flow statement? Should be right here. There it is. Cash flow. Net cash used in operating. So, oh, wait a second. Wait a second. I'm in the wrong column. Hold on.

Oh, yeah. Look at that. That was in December. All of these numbers are December. Okay, so that's December. Let's make a note of that. I hate it when they do that. Usually the most recent quarter is on the left.

Then you get like one in 10 companies who want to be special. Uh D's 3125. All right. All right. All right. Uh let's go with Wow, look at that. 8 billion in cash. So this is June 30th.

That's actually impressive. Bills of deferred is almost a bill. Oh wow. 1.4 billion. And then long-term debt of 8 73ish billion dollars. That's not bad. That's pretty good. Now, I know it's basically all long-term debt, but that's not bad. I like that. That's much better.

Okay, so cash flow. Cash flow. We have cash from continuing operations, 4.5 billion. A lot of this is going to be deposits. See this deferred revenue right here? It's an injection of deposits.

Uh pumped up. uh pumped up by deposit injections. So that that cash flow probably won't stay like that. Uh won't uh likely stay like that.

Okay. And then if I look at plant property equipment, they basically blew all of it on hardware. 8 billion. They're throwing money at chips. But I mean, think about this. You know, 8 billion in spend is like onetenth of what SpaceX and Google just raised. So, like they're still a small player, right?

All right. Let's keep going with this. So, that's not bad. I mean, they're still a little baby, right? which makes sense. You know, SpaceX and Google are trillion dollar companies.

Let's see how they actually make dollars. So, I've got revenues of $582 million and they spend all of it. That's all right. Uh that's expected at this point still. I wonder what their forecast is for actually making money and interest expense, other income.

That's all bull crap. Okay. So, let's go find out. Let's go see what it is.

And this all right. They are projected to be profitable not in 2026, not in 2027, but in 2028. Oh yeah, baby. By 2030, they're expected to make $15 per share. Whoa, that's a lot.

Uh, now that's payback on their investment period. So, you know, what's their balance sheet going to look like at that point? We'll see. But let's write that down. a projected projected to yield 1559 uh of uh EPS in end of 2030.

By 2030, they're expected to make $15 per share. Uh, now that's payback on their investment period. So, you know, what's their balance sheet going to look like at that point? We'll see.

But let's write that down. a projected projected to yield 1559 uh of uh EPS in end of 2030. That's, you know, that means it's trading for 216 divided by This is really bad because it's such a forward PE, but that would be Oh, come on.

217 / 1559. It's trading for about 13.9x, you know, PE for 2030.

So four Ps are always a little bit scary because then what you have to do is like what's the growth rate going to be after that? Um valuation comes down to what's the growth post 2030, right?

It's still a bet on that post 2030 growth because between now and then you're you're not profit well between you go profitable in 2028 supposedly is the goal. So, it's a bet on them being able to sustain those GPU rentals into the 2030s.

Uh, this is a bet on sustaining GPU and CPU rentals into 2030s.

Um valuation comes down to what's the growth post 2030, right? It's still a bet on that post 2030 growth because between now and then you're you're not profit well between you go profitable in 2028 supposedly is the goal.

So, it's a bet on them being able to sustain those GPU rentals into the 2030s. Uh, this is a bet on sustaining GPU and CPU rentals into 2030s.

Yeah, I mean, it's pretty straightforward, but otherwise, I mean, they've got it they've actually got it set up pretty decently. Uh, it's not offensive. It's uh you know, it's not it's not my kind of play, but uh but not bad.

All right, let's go see what else we have. So that's that's not bad. That's not bad on on uh Nebs here. Let's go. And it gives us a little bit of color on the megawws, you know, pricing per megawatt basically.

So that's that's not bad. That's not bad on on uh Nebs here. And it gives us a little bit of color on the megawws, you know, pricing per megawatt basically. Uh but uh this is uh let's see here. where is this channel blah blah blah blah blah. Okay. So, you know, Gavin

I think you're you would probably be more sitting closer to like, you know, 45% 45% 10%. But that'll be very interesting because that specific breakdown is also critical for if you're going to invest in a company like, you know, Nebius because you why why rent from them?

But that'll be very interesting because that specific breakdown is also critical for if you're going to invest in a company like, you know, Nebius because you why why rent from them?

Let me see if I could get like a pricing sheet. Nebus uh GPU pricing sheet like you could just invest in the product yourself which is of course a risk factor then um outside of the frontiers.

Let me see if I could get like a pricing sheet. Nebus uh GPU pricing sheet like you could just invest in the product yourself which is of course a risk factor then um outside of the frontiers.

So here for example these are the GPU hours right now. Some of these they don't actually quote like the GB300 they're not quoting and the GB200 they're not quoting. These are just the newer black wells.

So they're quoting the older stuff. See, like, look at this. The Nvidia RTX Pro 6000. Okay, why don't I just buy that myself? Oh, wait. We did. But why am I going to pay you a buck 80 per GPU hour?

You know, I could I could buy this thing on Amazon. I think it's like 15 grand or whatever. Uh, let me see. We bought ours for like seven grand. Nvidia 6000 RTX. So, right now traded for Oh, that's hilarious.

That's actually hilarious. You can see my last order. We bought multiple of these. Uh you can see my last order at the top there. It says uh you know, last purchase August 27th of 2025.

That's funny. Uh but anyway, so I mean you could buy this now when we bought it for whatever it was uh7,000 or whatever and uh 144 is what you could buy it for. So you know how many hours in in a month?

Well, I don't know. Let's let's just assume for a giggle that I'm running it 24 hours a day. That's 720. What's my payback period? 720 in this case. you need to pay I need I'd still need a year and a half you know at that price you know cuz once you know and then you got to install it into a machine too you know so it's probably still going to cost you like 17 grand to run one of those or you put it into a server rack so you got to add a little bit for for it.

So, you're still probably at if you're running it 24/7, 17,000 divided by 720. Yeah, that's still a 2-year payback period, but then you own it and it's your data. So, I think that's that's becoming more and more of the competition.

Uh, and that's the ondemand. I guess I I guess in fairness, if you're using it all the time, they do give you pricing discounts here. So, you know, you contract it up. But that makes sense.

But at this price, at this price, it's a four-year break even for them, unless they're getting, you know, bulk pricing, which maybe they are. They probably are getting some kind of discount from Nvidia because that's retail pricing on Amazon.

So, you could see the business model. You know, let's say they're all in on these RTXs. Maybe they got them a year ago like we did and they were, you know, seven grand or whatever.

They got Nvidia prices and they're getting them for seven grand. Well, $7,000 still takes me uh well, basically 7,000 hours plus the miscellaneous other hardware takes me call it 9,000 hours to pay for itself. 9,000 hours divided by 365.

It takes a year. That's still a year. I mean, it's good for Nebius. Yeah, they they could pull off, but then then again, like if the payback periods are so low, why don't you buy it yourself?

Not everybody's obviously going to buy themselves, but that's going to become more competition. Certainly not these these larger racks, the more Frontier racks, but that's that's interesting seeing the pricing for this.

Then you own your own hardware. I mean, for those that we bought last year, we're we're probably already at the break even price because we got them so much cheaper. Now, it's like a two-year payback period.

It was a one-year payback period because the prices have gone up. But anyway, uh so this is cool. Oracles got getting gotten a little bit of a pump in here. This is I feel like your OG Nebius uh credit default swaps are wild on this puppy.

But the debt is also insane over here and that's one of the the challenges that I find of the uh these guys.

See, like, look at this. The Nvidia RTX Pro 6000. Okay, why don't I just buy that myself? Oh, wait. We did. But why am I going to pay you a buck 80 per GPU hour? You know, I could I could buy this thing on Amazon.

I think it's like 15 grand or whatever. Uh, let me see. We bought ours for like seven grand. Nvidia 6000 RTX.

So, right now traded for Oh, that's hilarious. That's actually hilarious. You can see my last order. We bought multiple of these. Uh you can see my last order at the top there.

It says uh you know, last purchase August 27th of 2025. That's funny.

Uh but anyway, so I mean you could buy this now when we bought it for whatever it was uh7,000 or whatever and uh 144 is what you could buy it for. So you know how many hours in in a month?

Well, I don't know. Let's let's just assume for a giggle that I'm running it 24 hours a day. That's 720. What's my payback period? 720 in this case. you need to pay I need I'd still need a year and a half you know at that price you know cuz once you know and then you got to install it into a machine too you know so it's probably still going to cost you like 17 grand to run one of those or you put it into a server rack so you got to add a little bit for for it.

So, you're still probably at if you're running it 24/7, 17,000 divided by 720. Yeah, that's still a 2-year payback period, but then you own it and it's your data.

So, I think that's that's becoming more and more of the competition. Uh, and that's the ondemand. I guess I I guess in fairness, if you're using it all the time, they do give you pricing discounts here.

So, you know, you contract it up. But that makes sense.

But at this price, at this price, it's a four-year break even for them, unless they're getting, you know, bulk pricing, which maybe they are. They probably are getting some kind of discount from Nvidia because that's retail pricing on Amazon.

So, you could see the business model. You know, let's say they're all in on these RTXs. Maybe they got them a year ago like we did and they were, you know, seven grand or whatever.

They got Nvidia prices and they're getting them for seven grand. Well, $7,000 still takes me uh well, basically 7,000 hours plus the miscellaneous other hardware takes me call it 9,000 hours to pay for itself. 9,000 hours divided by 365.

It takes a year. That's still a year. I mean, it's good for Nebius.

Yeah, they they could pull off, but then then again, like if the payback periods are so low, why don't you buy it yourself? Not everybody's obviously going to buy themselves, but that's going to become more competition.

Certainly not these these larger racks, the more Frontier racks, but that's that's interesting seeing the pricing for this. Then you own your own hardware. I mean, for those that we bought last year, we're we're probably already at the break even price because we got them so much cheaper.

Now, it's like a two-year payback period. It was a one-year payback period because the prices have gone up.

Okay. So, NBIS sitting on the line, SpaceX, where are the Q's today? NBIS sitting on the line,

I've got uh Nebus up five.