NextNav requires more patience due to FCC delays, but spectrum value is rising amid growing demand for low-band connectivity.

Nexnav is a company that owns um wireless spectrum in the lower 900 band. And historically they have not really been able to do much with that spectrum because it is licensed by the FCC very specifically for location and monitoring services effectively.

I mean we could think about that in layman's terms as for you know GPS equivalents and their main product is a backup to the GPS system um in the United States.

In any case, NextNav has this spectrum which is being underused at the moment. They have applied for permission from the FCC to use their spectrum for 5G mobile communications.

If they get permission from the FCC, the value of that spectrum goes up quite a bit. um like multiples I should say.

So the user on Twitter was asking I forget how he phrased it but I guess you know asking what my current thoughts are and my current thoughts are more patience required there. We're waiting from permission from the FCC.

We don't know exactly what is happening other than the FCC has put forth what's called an NPRM or a notice of proposed rulemaking.

They they have submitted a draft MPRM which means the FCC is on board but it is now stuck in effectively review under one of the executive branch departments where other branches of the or other parts of the federal government can comment on it and you know worry if there are objections and there are indeed inject objections right now

this spectrum is used by a couple other groups one of which is what's called part 15 devices that includes RFID tags um among other things it could control like smart utility meters etc. They claim that there will be interference.

Um Nexnav has done a number of engineering studies to show that there is no interference. The opposition of course has done their own studies. They say there is interference.

My my read is that the next nav studies read better because they respond to any criticism of their studies with detailed analysis of why they did what they did. Whereas the opposition I mean next at one point for example replied to opposition study and said like your whole study relies on the idea of the laws of physics not being applicable like you have to bend the laws of physics if not break them

and I'm not I'm not an engineer but I'm I'm fairly certain that the laws of physics are undefeated and but then the opposition of course does not reply to that criticism. They just put out press releases about their their study.

So the the real point is I'm not an engineer. I don't know the answer. I know that NextNav is very confident in their position and I know what they're calling for is joint testing between the two groups like joint real world testing and the only way to get to the real answer here is joint real world testing and broadly speaking next has been pounding the drum on that for two years and the opposition has been refusing to engage which at the very least I think you should make people suspicious of the opposition like why would if you're so confident in your position why would you why would you not test it

in any case There is a delay. I have been absolutely wrong on the timing here. I thought all of this might have gone through, you know, I guess at this point almost a year ago.

It has not. Um, it is taking more time than anticipated.

And that's fine as long as in the background you're able to kind of come up with assorted, you know, I don't know, I guess scuttlebutt is the right word. you know, reading tea leaves, some of the bigger tea, I'm not going to mention all of them here because some of them are, you know, better better left not said, I guess, but some very obvious ones like the fact that this entire process to develop a backup to GPS was put in motion by President Trump at the end of his first term when he had an executive order basically saying we need a backup to GPS and uh you know that's a national defense issue.

So, he wants it to happen. You could read the other people that are involved. Ted Cruz is one of the people that will be overseeing the committee that, you know, helps this move forward.

He has been pretty vocal about the need for a backup to GPS. You could look at some of the people that are involved with financing the company and their experience in this arena.

And then there's also an army of lobbyists and consultants and lawyers and everything else that basically roams the hallways of the FCC in Washington trying to keep their finger on the pulse of how these things are developing.

And the scuttle back is all positive other than taking longer than expected.

And you know the wheels of government grind slow. I guess there's no there's no news on that front. It's certainly frustrating. But the good news is that in the background during this whole delayed process, the value of the spectrum itself has continued to go up.

And basically when this whole journey started a number of years ago, the idea of satellite directto device communication was not really in vogue. But just over the last year or so that's become the hottest topic in the spectrum world with everyone from Elon Musk to Amazon to others you know trying to figure out how they can work through satellites direct to device.

Now the beauty of the spectrum in question here is that it is low band and from a very high level lowband spectrum can penetrate through walls and through tree cover in a way that mid-band or high band spectrum cannot. if you're, you know, if you're basically broadcasting from space, that's important, right?

And part of the background as well is that for years the FCC has made it clear they want to stand up a fourth carrier. Elon is now trying to I mean, he hasn't publicly said that, but he's very heavily hinting that could be Starlink.

Um, but to do that, to have a fourth carrier, you need lowband spectrum because people want to be able to get cell phone service inside. So, there's a number of reasons why the spectrum value keeps going up.

So yes, frustrating delay. The reality though is that if this had all happened very very quickly, the spectrum probably would have been sold at a price or monetized at a price I should say that would have been disappointing in terms of where we are today because the value of the spectrum keeps going up.

So you know I don't really have an update other than more patience required.

Well, I mean, look, that's kind of one of the jokes amongst people that know is like, how come Eric Trump can't come out as file as one of the large shareholders here? Like, wouldn't Wouldn't that be nice?

But, you know, I don't I don't want to I don't want to get into the political side of it all other than to say that I think both sides of the aisle with one exception being the congressman who represents Walmart's district, he has been an objector.

But other than him, everyone else in Congress, I think, is on board with the idea that this is a national defense issue.

And then there's things you could do that just, you know, in the realm of common sense for, so for example, in the United States right now for part 15 devices, they have is it I guess it's 26 megahertz of spectrum allocated to part 15, which includes RFID and China has I think six and the EU has five megahertz or you know, that's directionally correct.

Why do we need five times more spectrum allocated to this than those other major economies? And part of the FCC's mandate is to maximize the use of spectrum. It's kind of, you know, it's kind of a highest and best use.

I mean, that's not the exact phrasing, but it's essentially highest and best use. So, you know, why do we need this much spectrum for RFID when the rest of the world does fine without that much?

And then, I mean, I could get more technical. It's probably not worth the time here, but just understanding the way RFID works. RFID readers are center tuned to 915 meghertz and then they scan from 902 to 928 continuously like in a second they will scan that band like a thousand times or whatever it is maybe it's 2,000 depending on the technology and if they bump into some interference on the way they just go to the next little slice of spectrum so if there is you know a 5G phone call taking place on one little slice of spectrum they just it just keeps going but the center tune is 9:15 that's where the signal is strongest that's where most of the hits occur and 915 is not part of the spectrum that Nexnav is even interested in. So that that stuff is all common sense.

The government piece is admittedly not common sense. Um but if you think of the the big picture dynamics of the US needing a backup to GPS there and I should be clear there are other alternative ways to get that but this is the cheapest, fastest and best way to get there and it also makes best use of the spectrum.

Um and you know just another small common piece slices one of the other users of the spectrum is are the toll roads. So like easy pass or sunass something like that. But also in the news these days is the idea of these flock cameras that are out recording everyone's license plates.

It's not clear to me why Easyypass needs to use spectrum to you know have a little tag in your card rather than just at this day and age using a video camera and AI to read license plates.

You know, the EasyPass first came on the scene, I think it was 1988, if I remember correctly. And at the time, there was no AI. You know, there weren't even real computers. So, obviously, the world has come a long way.

It's not clear why they still need to rely on wireless spectrum when there are better technologies out there that don't use this very scarce and very valuable resource because they're not making any more spectrum that despite the opposition's, you know, need or want to ignore the laws of physics. the laws of physics still apply.

Like they're not making more spectrum. So why would we as a country use it for something where we don't need to? It's just it's kind of common sense. The politics are harder than the common sense. Um more patience required.

it's hard because there's a lot of people around space stocks and everything else that are you know very quick to to say things that they maybe heard somewhere else but haven't confirmed or have not talked to industry insiders.

There's a lot of information not just around Nexnav but around other stocks as well. But um there's also a ton of experts in this space that are very accessible. a ton of these lobbyists and lawyers and stuff and you know work the phones a little bit and find out from the experts the view is a lot better than the negative view you get from from Twitter.