NVDA has strong near-term (1-5 year) prospects but carries excessive long-term valuation risk due to AI dependence and cyclical nature; rated as uncertain/neutral for decades-long horizons.

because we don't really know or maybe even Nvidia it's you know it's a little bit different as well.

Yeah, Microsoft to me is the one that probably Microsoft and Nvidia are the closest to being in my two hard piles.

The last two companies would be Apple and Nvidia. and then one of them is you know basically if you look at the financials and also at the stock chart this company exists for a long time but really the investment world is talking about it now for three years 3 to four years that's pretty much the time that people talk about Nvidia.

So interesting to hear where you put it. I think what's interesting about Nvidia is if you look at their financials they trading at I think the forward multiple is about 16 17 times. it's pretty low.

So to some extent the market is or believes that the earnings that currently are guided for that analysts put out might not actually be true. So a lot of the you know we talked about the the circle of the circular deals and the deal flow generally in AI.

It seems to be that whenever you look at Nvidia the market doesn't buy it when you look at Google or Amazon and their current valuations the market thinks that the money well for anthropic and open AI will actually land there.

So I think it's also a bit a bit weird where one week the market thinks one way and the other week it sort of changes. Um personally I can say I mean both of these companies but especially Nvidia I haven't deep dived it.

Most of the other companies that we ranked here we actually deep dived. At least one of us did. Um I think none of us looked at Nvidia. So it's a bit of a you know guess in the dark here.

Um, but I personally feel like it's way too dependent on this entire AI trade for me personally to think this will be a great opportunity in 30 years time. I believe in AI. I believe it will get bigger over time.

But I also believe we just talked about the chip business of Amazon and you know many other companies will be in that space too.

Um, we know that for example in semiconductors Sean that's something that you put out often. Um, it's a business where usually you have a lot of disruption happening and that happens quickly.

so for me and video 30-year time frame I mean I got to look at our list here guys can we put it below SpaceX I think that's just harsh but otherwise we put it almost above Microsoft and Meta did we make a mistake here

I I don't know I with Nvidia Um, I'll be the first to say I I dramatically underestimated uh what they've been able to do and how important they are to this ecosystem. Um, if we are truly moving into a paradigm shift here with AI, uh, you know, of course they're going to be a huge beneficiary of that.

with the point being uh there's a lot of exuberance baked baked into Nvidia under the assumption that there's going to be a lot of AI capex and it's going to sustain for a long time and Nvidia is going to continue to have this sort of monopolist monopolistic positioning.

but just the point being um if you think over a long time horizon uh I think there's a lot of optimism baked into the current valuation of Nvidia.

Um, I don't really have a good sense for how diversified the business is. Seems like they have an incredible golden goose. Um, with Nvidia, it's it's um, yeah, to me it's a it's a shot in the dark.

I would probably I would probably put it on par with SpaceX where I think of them both as being the leaders in um, this new paradigm shift in technology.

Uh, and it remains to be seen whether uh, that first mover advantage will be competed away. I think for me, um, kind of similar to you guys, I I just haven't spent enough time on Nvidia to really have too much of an opinion other than to me it they feel like right now um it's quite clear that they have an advantage,

And then on top of that, you have the fact that at the end of the day, it is in a cyclical industry. And obviously, right now, they're riding this incredible um upwave that's lasted a very long time compared to history.

So, I don't know. I mean, to me, Nvidia, is it is it better than uh than the bottom the E and F tier businesses? Probably. Um, I don't know if I would honestly put it up at at SpaceX's level.

I might put it maybe closer to Tesla or maybe even even in the the D and E tier personally.

Um, but again, I I kind of think, you know, if we're looking at this from the next, say, one to five years, yeah, I think Nvidia probably is going to do really really well. They're probably going to make a lot more money next year than they have this year.

Uh but I mean man, you go out 20 20 years even, I I don't know. I have a really hard time thinking that uh this is going to be as nearly as good of a business as it is today or if even if it's going to be alive.

Okay. I I would say we keep SpaceX and Nvidia at about the same level just because I feel like one company has proven to generate billions and billions of dollars with high margins. The other one hasn't.