Nvidia is a mixed picture: poor recent performance and high expectations, but reasonable valuation and strong demand for new chips; the key risk is a slowdown or margin contraction in guidance, which would be a huge negative.

Nvidia earnings will absolutely set the tone for how the AI trade is doing which certainly has been lagging recently, right? If we look at the charts and you bring up even Nvidia, Nvidia has been a very poor performer and arguably it did make a high back here, but since that high in May, it has really been struggling substantially.

There is a trend line I'm watching very closely which goes back to the April 2025 lows through the pivot low here in March of uh March 30th, 2026 to this pivot low in July 29th.

And if we come down into this, will this trend line hold or will Nvidia break to the downside? Now, looking at the options market, the options market have an implied move on earnings of about 6% one way or the other.

So, that gives us a little general idea of what the option market expects in terms of a move off earnings from Nvidia for Nvidia.

If we look at the charts and you bring up even Nvidia, Nvidia has been a very poor performer and arguably it did make a high back here, but since that high in May, it has really been struggling substantially.

There is a trend line I'm watching very closely which goes back to the April 2025 lows through the pivot low here in March of uh March 30th, 2026 to this pivot low in July 29th.

And if we come down into this, will this trend line hold or will Nvidia break to the downside?

Now, looking at the options market, the options market have an implied move on earnings of about 6% one way or the other. So, that gives us a little general idea of what the option market expects in terms of a move off earnings from Nvidia for Nvidia.

We did talk about Nvidia. Nvidia is trading up just a little bit in the pre-market here from yesterday's big decline. There was some news that I caught on Nvidia that I thought was interesting.

There's a firm in India that's buying 9,000 uh Vera Rubin chips. So that's the newest chip that Nvidia is going to be debuting I believe later this year. And again there's already a 9,000 chip order and those chips are expensive.

So there is demand out there. The question is when we look at what Nvidia says, how much are margins when they report and obviously earnings will be important but the guidance the guidance is going to be the driving factor.

What investors want to see is no slowdown at all and they want to see margins still at their or near their peak. If you see anything about a slowdown or margins contracting, it's going to be a huge negative for Nvidia, which by the way is trading at a reasonable PE at this point.

I think it's only at like uh uh 15 PE, forward PE or so. So, it's very very reasonable, but again, it's the law of large numbers with Nvidia as well. You know, they can add five billion in revenue and it's a drop in the bucket at this point.

There was some news that I caught on Nvidia that I thought was interesting. There's a firm in India that's buying 9,000 uh Vera Rubin chips. So that's the newest chip that Nvidia is going to be debuting I believe later this year.

And again there's already a 9,000 chip order and those chips are expensive. So there is demand out there.

The question is when we look at what Nvidia says, how much are margins when they report and obviously earnings will be important but the guidance the guidance is going to be the driving factor.

What investors want to see is no slowdown at all and they want to see margins still at their or near their peak. If you see anything about a slowdown or margins contracting, it's going to be a huge negative for Nvidia, which by the way is trading at a reasonable PE at this point.

I think it's only at like uh uh 15 PE, forward PE or so. So, it's very very reasonable, but again, it's the law of large numbers with Nvidia as well. You know, they can add five billion in revenue and it's a drop in the bucket at this point.