NVDA is underpriced; expects stock to double due to 100% YoY growth, market share expansion, and superior rack efficiency vs AMD.

Nvidia he's talking about um SpaceX he's talking about open AI and Anthropic that all of these companies are going to have their own compute they're all going to have their own model they're all going to have you know Nvidia's working on open source models

Well, Blackwell 200 is like, I don't know, 2024 chip, and Blackwell 300 is like a 2025 chip. And, you know, Vera Rubin is already shipping in low volume.

but chips like Nvidia is the 800lb gorilla of chip design. it's competitive in chips because you have AMD and you have Nvidia and you have Broadcom in the chip design area. Nvidia is by far the biggest in in its space.

I think three companies have a huge advantage over all the rest. Nvidia is the 800 pound gorilla of chips with a growing presence in open source models. They have Neatron in particular.

The biggest thing everyone missed is that Nvidia in the Q2 earnings call, they just had an earnings call for Nvidia and no one talked about this.

Google is maybe their biggest customer and Google has been making their own chips. They're on the eighth generation of their TPU and they still buy a lot of Nvidia chips.

Jensen said, "Well, we grew our market share." And I did not expect that. if you follow the uh the reason I mention this in particular is because a lot of people think AMD is going to be more successful than Nvidia.

And um the story that people will tell me is well AMD is growing faster than Nvidia. Nvidia just grew 100% year on year. They doubled year on year. They forecast

if AMD is growing faster than Nvidia, then why did Nvidia grow its market share?

Uh I'm just looking back here. Ever notice when Musk released new ideas, the haters start lawsuits within days. Yes, that's probably true. They kind of sue Elon whenever they want, whenever they want.

Anyway, um Nvidia Yeah. So Nvidia stock, this is crazy, by the way. Nvidia reported their numbers, blockbuster numbers. They they beat on revenue, they beat on profit. Their their forecast for next year was dramatically higher than the analysts were saying.

And the stock isn't meaningfully up. The stock isn't meaningfully up over like six months.

And like this stock, I think Nvidia is going to what? They doing a billion dollars a day in revenue. They're doing more than a billion dollars a day in revenue. And they're going to be doing more than $2 billion a day in revenue soon.

I kind of feel like for memory chips like if the memory companies do well, Nvidia does well. If Nvidia does well, the memory companies do well. Why don't I just buy Nvidia? I think Nvidia is underpriced.

So why don't I just buy Nvidia and not worry about buying memory chip stocks? That that makes a lot of sense to me.

I think when when Elon spins up Terrafab, I would bet you that Nvidia will make chips. Will ask Elon to make chips for them on the Terapab. And Elon will want to make chips for Nvidia because he likes their chips.

they struggle to get access to like you know the US has rules that prevent them from getting the latest Nvidia chips, the latest AMD chips, whatever. but they they can't get you know Nvidia Vera Rubin or Blackwell 300 at scale.

I think they're now able to get Blackwell 200 at some scale.

and I'll say this about the memory prices. I think that Nvidia is working on a plan for a next generation rack like Vera Rubin Ultra that uses like less memory. is one of the key distinctions between Nvidia and AMD right now is that the Vera Rubin rack uses about, don't hold me to this, but something like 200 terabytes of HBM memory and the AMD rack uses 300 terabytes.

I'm getting the numbers wrong, but it's like 50% more HBM memory in the AMD rack. Well, that means AMD's costs are higher and that means AMD's supply chain is more challenging, right?

you when you want to build your rack, you have to get 50% more memory for your rack than they than Nvidia has to get for their rack. Now, the pricing is so high that Nvidia has basically told its customers, hey, we're going to be raising prices soon.

And I think they're working on a rack that uses less memory because the the memory shortage is just going for a long time.

mind-blowing the Nvidia situation thanks to Warren. Oh, you purchased 100K at a good Very nice. Um I I think that Nvidia is going to double.

So I mentioned before Nvidia, Google, SpaceX, and Tesla. Those are the four companies I hold stock in.

I think there's a theory that Nvidia comes along and invests in Terafab and they make chips for Nvidia. Just just cuz I own stock in Tesla, SpaceX, Nvidia, and and Google. Doesn't mean I'm biased.

And I think that OpenAI and Anthropic have no chance of catching up in compute and no chance of capping up catching up in hardware and that Google, SpaceX, and um Nvidia have a massive advantage over everybody else except Tesla which is in like Tesla's in this different world with the real world AI.