NVDA is the best stock; intrinsic value rose to $341 vs price $228, implying ~50% upside in 12-18 months.

Well, I've had the opportunity to digest Nvidia's recent results, press release, conference call with Wall Street analysts, income statement, cash flow statement, balance sheet , etc. I have updated the company's discounted cash flow assessment and revised my rating of it .

Remember, prior to this quarterly investor update, I upgraded Nvidia stock to my top buy. So I was very pleased to see the share price jump by about 10% after the company announced these results.

Incidentally, I also own shares in Nvidia. It is one of the largest positions in my investment portfolio, so I was doubly pleased to see the stock price jump. Let me share my revised estimates, updated rankings, and some insights from the company's Q&A session and discussion with Wall Street analysts regarding their recent performance.

So, one of my biggest observations was clarifying Nvidia's relationship with OpenAI. Nvidia said that OpenAI has committed to a large deployment of Nvidia infrastructure through 2030.

OpenAI's current and planned commitments represent approximately 12 gigawatts of Nvidia's computing capacity . I wish the management team had told us about their planned commitments only, not their current ones, so that I could calculate approximately how much additional revenue they expect to generate from the relationship with OpenAI. The 12 gigawatts give me something to rely on .

Nvidia's management team highlighted earlier in this call and again later that they are now getting about $40 billion in revenue per gigawatt going into these data centers, to provide some context regarding these gigawatt discussions.

Nvidia also said that they were previously getting around $8 billion per gigawatt, which rose to $25 billion, and then to $40 billion per gigawatt as Nvidia expanded its offerings beyond just the graphics processing unit, to include the central processing unit , networks, and all the elements that go into these buildings that produce computing power.

So, if we just look at this, you know, 12 gigawatts multiplied by an estimated $40 billion, that means $480 billion in revenue from OpenAI between now and 2030.

But they also say current and planned commitments , without separating the two. Another thing to consider, as I mentioned, is that their revenue per gigawatt is increasing significantly as Nvidia provides more for data centers.

Also, remember that they recently announced price increases of about 15%. Therefore, I wouldn't be surprised if their revenue per gigawatt continued to rise, as they delivered more value and more innovation in their products.

So, Nvidia says it believes that its investments , when measured against the strength of demand, the business they create for us, the ecosystem they build on the Nvidia platform, and the equity returns on invested capital, will be excellent and our risks are limited.

Therefore, there is no doubt that Nvidia has heard the talk surrounding its circular funding arrangements and how they increase risk, and they wanted to address that directly by clarifying the relationship and providing more transparency, which they have done effectively in this financial report.

I thought it was extremely important that Nvidia still repurchased $20 billion worth of its shares during the last quarter, even after investing billions of dollars in its strategic partners and relationships .

If they are investing to the point that they no longer have any cash left to repurchase their shares, and perhaps need to borrow or issue more shares to support these investments in partners like OpenAI and others, then that would be a worrying risk sign to me at that point.

But right now, the company is generating such large cash flows that even after repurchasing $20 billion worth of shares, they still have billions of dollars left over. Nvidia also said that hyperscale business growth is expected to accelerate again in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2027 and extend into fiscal 2028.

Remember that they are expecting 70% revenue growth next year, and they expect supply to remain a bottleneck at least until the end of fiscal 2028. So, at least until fiscal 2028, Nvidia's production is fully booked. Isn't that so?

At that point, we can begin to talk about a possible balance . But the supply and demand dynamics are still working in Nvidia’s favor, at least until the end of fiscal year 2028, which is about 18 months from now.

Nvidia also highlighted that they are facing extreme pricing conditions in the memory sector. So, as a result, Nvidia is lowering its margin expectations to between 71% and 72%, down from 75%, which is n't a huge drop, and then settling in the 72% to 73% range in fiscal year 2028 as they implement price increases themselves.

Nvidia not only predicted a 70% revenue growth for fiscal year 2028, their next fiscal year , but when asked about this prediction, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that they now have a clearer view of their business.

This is why we are able to make this prediction. I don't think they've ever provided annual revenue forecasts before, but now, thanks to this big outlook, they've secured orders and obtained deposits.

They are absolutely certain of their sales volume, so they can give us estimates now because they are more certain than ever about their orders.

But he added that the demand for them is much greater than the 70% growth rate indicates. However, the available offer allows us to deliver only 70%. They made that clear at various times, saying the same thing in different words on this conference call and elsewhere in their quarterly report, that demand for them is much greater than 70%.

So, in my opinion, “much bigger” means growth of at least 80% , and perhaps close to 100%, because if it were just 75%, for example, wouldn’t that be right? If they had demand that was only 5 or 10% higher than their revenue estimates indicated, they would have simply said that demand was greater, or that demand exceeded supply, which is simpler.

But they added that adjective " much greater" than 70%, which to me means growth of at least 80 to 85%, and perhaps closer to 100%, that they could have achieved if they had the supply needed to meet market demand.

Well, as a result of what I saw from Nvidia and the numbers they provided , I was able to review the company's discounted cash flow model. I have revised my forecasts regarding the amount of cash flow I expect the company to generate, increasing it by several billion dollars starting from fiscal year 2027 through fiscal year 2030 and beyond.

This has increased the intrinsic value of the stock by about 10%, or I should say slightly more than 10%, closer to 12 or 13%, as my previous estimate of the fair value of the company was about $300 , and it has risen to $341.

The current market price is up 9% the day after the report. So it's at $228. Comparing the difference, I estimate there is a potential for an upside of approximately 50% in Nvidia stock over the next 12 to 18 months.

So it should come as no surprise that I am reaffirming my ranking of Nvidia as the best stock after these quarterly results. In other words, the numbers exceeded my expectations and calculations, and although the share price rose, it did not rise to the same extent as the company’s fundamental performance improved; Therefore, I am more optimistic about Nvidia's stock overall than I was before this quarterly financial report .