Slower model development hurts NVDA near-term but extends long-term spending cycle.
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So this is just the most cutting edge models the development the pace at which they develop these models. If that slows down what impact could it have and most notably my initial reactions are that Nvidia which has the largest market share in GPUs utilized for model development.
So Nvidia's GPUs are bestin-class, arguably at least one step ahead of the competition. You could even argue it's two steps ahead of the competition on inferencing and agentic AI and other categories, there are other options, but if you want to develop the latest and greatest, Nvidia boasts the largest market share in that category.
So, if there's a slowdown in model development, that's likely to impact Nvidia negatively in the near term, right? But here's the thing. I don't expect that to be negative for Nvidia in the longer term.
I expect this just prolongs the spending, right? It extends the duration. We've been talking a lot about how AI spending could fall off a cliff because so much spending is happening in such a short amount of time.
But what this will do is kind of spread it out. Instead of having so much spending concentrated in so few years, it can be spread out in longer duration and develop this over time more slowly.
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Parkev Tatevosian, CFA has 13 calls on this stock; only the adjacent ones are shown.