NVDA is a high-quality growth stock with strong financials and an attractive valuation relative to its rapid earnings growth, presenting a rare investment opportunity.
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But now in more recent times, it's been very hard to find growth. And so I'm very excited to talk about the king of AI, as I call it, Nvidia. And we're going to go through this company and really take it apart.
And I've also put it through our new AI, Charles, which is basically going to talk about how powerful this company really is.
But without further, let's go ahead and get into the fast graphs on Nvidia and talk about why I like this company for anyone interested in a long-term total return. And even for income investors, I believe having a turbocharger on your portfolio also makes sense.
So, you might want to have most of your money invested for conservative income, but you still have room in your portfolio for a powerhouse like Nvidia.
This is adjusted operating earnings and you can see the company had kind of a sketchy past. If I use my skull bra here, Nvidia had some semicyclical earnings. But as we come into more modern times, we can see that the earnings have exploded.
Now, when I put weekly stock price, this is adjusted operating earnings. By the way, when I put weekly stock prices on the graph, you can see that the price correlated with the earnings.
Even when the company was more cyclical, we had this relationship between earnings and market price that existed very powerfully. But once earnings began to accelerate, then we had some accelerated valuation going on.
And at that point, Nvidia really was creating just powerful growth.
The average growth since going back to 2018, this as a January fiscal year, by the way, has been averaged over 60%. If I shorten the time frame, it actually accelerated over 70%.
Now, this is adjusted operating earnings. What's interesting and what I like about this company, if I look at diluted earnings, where you could see a lot of accounting convention, we get the same picture.
Powerful growth even higher than what we saw in operating earnings and a stock price that's trading below the earnings justified valuation line looking at just diluted earnings.
But let's look at some others. The company does pay a very small dividend. You can see that here by the gold line. It's been increasing. But if we look at cash flow, look at operating cash flow, we see that the dividend is massively covered by operating cash flow.
So even from a dividend perspective, this company looks interesting as a long-term investment.
If I look at free cash flow to equity, I'm looking again at what I call the asset test. free cash flow is very consistent just like every other metric we've looked at and covers it.
Now I can look at other measures with fastgrass. I can look at IBA earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, advertisation. Once again I see value the price trading below the expected future growth rate.
I can look at EBA or net income and I can also see a very similar picture where the price is below. And even if I go to just pure sales or revenues, I also see that the price is trading below its price per sale or it's trading in a from a standpoint of this short-term frame, a very attractive price to sales ratio.
Now, I went ahead in Charles, our AI tool that we've recently added to FastCrafts, and I ran Nvidia through Charles, and here's some of the answers I got, and I'm just going to highlight these for you.
What is Nvidia's competitive advantage? It is durable. It's a platform level lead in accelerated computing and AI infrastructure, not merely a faster chip. Its competitive position appears to include high performance GPUs and networking, a mature software ecosystem and developer lock in scale with hyperscalers and AI customers, very high profitability.
And let's look at some of that. The financial evidence, as Charles says, is unusually strong. Last 12-month revenues were 303 billion. Gross income was 226 billion implying a 74.7% gross margin.
Operating income of 197 billion plus was a 67% operating margin and net income of 192 billion also gave us a 63.7 net margin. Return on invested capital was 89% return on equity 110% and return on assets over 81%. These are powerful extraordinary numbers.
The trend is also powerful rather than isolated annual revenue from 60.9 billion to 130 billion in fiscal 25 and 215 billion in fiscal 2026 expected. quarterly revenue continued to accelerate from 81 billion to 96 billion.
So, I'm not going to go through all this with you. Those of you who are subscribers, run it through Charles. Just ask the six questions. But, can Nvidia survive a downturn? Yes.
Based on the current balance sheet, it has substantial downturn capabilities or capacity. Cassid's short-term investments over 99 billion. Total debt only 38 billion. They could pay their debt three times over with their cash flow.
Net debt is 60 billion, meaning Nvidia has 60 billion more cash and short-term investments than debt. Shareholders equity 229 billion. Current assets 197. Fast facts, current ratio is 4.59%.
Very powerful. All debt is well covered. Quick ratio the same. Long-term debt to capitals less than 14% and long-term debt to equity is only 16%. So here we have a very fast powerful growing company creating enormous cash flows and has very minimal debt.
So the balance sheet risk is low in a conventional solveny sense.
The more relevant risk is whether receivables, inventory and customer financing grow faster than the underlying demand.
Now management quality, it's good management. Is it just luck? While the evidence favors very capable management, although the business environment has been unusually favorable, and that's a point, there's two points there.
We got a very favorable business environment, and management has handled it well.
So, I can go on through this, but let's look at valuation and growth, which is near and dear to my heart. At the latest price of around $211, we'll call it, it trades at a blended PE of 28, a five-year normal PE of 48, a PG ratio of 0.5, and an earnings per share compound annual growth rate of 59% for one year, 142% for three years, and 80% for 5 years.
In other words, the PE, which is the growth formula, is Peter Lynch's formula that we built fast graphs on, which is P equals growth rate, is substantially below. In other words, the current valuation is substantially below growth rate, as you can see here in the graph clearly. So, we're looking at a very powerful company.
Now, there are risks. The growth could normalize and slow down dramatically. Okay? in competitive and customer insourcing. Cloud providers and large technology companies may develop custom AI.
That's a possible risk. Although they're so well entrenched, I don't see that as much of a risk.
And then I can just go on through all this. But again, if you have a subscription to FastCrafts, a premium subscription, go ahead and run this through Charles because the conclusion is the dividend is exceptionally well covered by both operating cash flow and free cash flow.
As I illustrated, the real question is not dividend safety. It's whether Nvidia could return more capital to the shareholders versus reinvesting it. And that's a question still to be answered.
But when I look at the company from a forecasting perspective, I see the same thing. Analysts expect earnings growth to be very, very substantial going forward. Let me go ahead and close Charles here for a moment.
We're looking at 54% expected growth. And I do want you to notice that the analyst estimates have actually been increasing from the last month ago, three months ago, and six months ago for fiscal year 2027 ending in January, as well as fiscal year 2028.
And they've increased a bunch from $1041 in 2028, now expecting $1,578.
Now, what's happening here? I want you to note that we had earnings of $5 or under $5 in 2025. We expect that to be almost double for 2027, up about 70% for 2028. And we're looking at $21 of potential earnings if these estimates are correct.
And looking at the company from an analyst scorecard, they have almost an impeccable record for one year and as well as one year forward as well as two year forward where they've exceeded met exceeded or beat the estimates the vast majority of the time.
Now, with fast graphs, you can calculate what that rate of return might be. I just simply take the last price and go out here to the last triangle based on these near-term estimates, and I get an opportunity to earn an annual rate of return of doubling your money every year for at least the next three years.
That's a compound annual growth rate of over 54%.
Now what this means is the PE ratio rises to a 54 PE from a current PE that's obviously much less than that. As I pointed out the current PE blended PE is around 31 as we can see you know it's showing 28 on the fastfax here.
So, we've got high margin, high expected growth, and we also have PE expansion plus a little smidgen of a dividend that gives us the opportunity to make an incredible amount of money.
And the risk here is high. And the only reason the risk is high is because we're looking at growth rates that are extraordinary, beyond the capacity of any what I would call normal company.
But here's a company that's been delivering that kind of growth and it's just scratching the surface of AI. They're well entrenched as we mentioned earlier with with Charles and we've got a very attractive valuation if these numbers are correct at all.
The only place where this looks a little expensive would be on price to sales where the price but even with price to sales if it traded at a normal price to sales you'd still be looking at an opportunity here to generate annualized rates of return of over 21% almost having your money increase almost 100%.
But all these other metrics tell a more important story. They tell us adjusted operating income. I mean operating earnings is the one my go-to.
Now let's talk about this just a little bit before I leave and close this video. If a company can grow earnings this fast, that means the business is creating extraordinary future growth for the shareholders today.
And if you can buy it at a lower at a low valuation, you also get the ability to get that leverage going on here. So running the number out to the logical conclusion sense the trick here is you have to monitor this growth very very carefully and there's a lot of ways you can do that you can look at all kind of sites like Google and sites like seeking alpha and so on but you want to monitor each quarterly report to make sure that the company's growth is expanded because growth this fast especially for a company of over five trillion in market cap is beyond extraordinary and that is where your real risk lies.
But if you're looking to turbocharge your portfolio or you just want if or if you're a growth investor and you're just looking for maximum growth, I don't really see how you could go wrong on this extremely high quality growth sock.
It's doubleA rated. Debt to capital is less than 6%. All the debt is covered. They have cash flow and cash on hand far exceeding any debt. So, this is a real opportunity and it's one of the rare growth opportunities you can find in today's market.
But I do believe this is the king of AI and the king of growth stocks in today's world.
What this channel has said about $NVDA
FAST Graphs has only this one call on this stock.