Nvidia's $235B buyback is a bad move; it uses unsustainable peak margins to repurchase shares ahead of a predicted 2028 chip demand slowdown.

First of all, Nvidia. There's big news about Nvidia today. They announced the largest share buyback in the history of the stock market, right?

Nvidia is launching the largest stock buyback in US history. $235 billion buyback. Just think, the share buyback that Nvidia just announced was equal to the market cap of the top 10 largest companies in the world when I first entered the stock market, right? It's really incredible, isn't it?

The company announced that its board has approved a $150 billion increase in its share repurchase program, bringing the total amount to $235 billion. Now, the first question you have to ask is, where are they going to get this money, right?

Because they only have $22 billion, which is a huge amount of money. But $22 billion is a lot less than the $235 billion buyback, right? Will it even be 10 percent of the buyback?

They now have this amount as cash and cash equivalents on their balance sheet. They have $34 billion in marketable debt securities. And there are $42 billion in marketable equity securities.

So, the way they're going to do it is, most of the huge profits they're going to make in the next 1 to 2 years will go directly into share buybacks. And now Nvidia is saying that it will spend every dollar it receives in profits from these companies on share buybacks over the next year or two.

It's an impressive situation, you could say that Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Open AI, and Anthropic are essentially bearing the cost of Nvidia's share buyback, right?

Ultimately, this whole thing boils down to a big share buyback, right? All the money is ultimately going into Nvidia's massive share buyback. Very interesting, isn't it? My honest opinion is that I didn't like this at all.

Now, you have to understand that Jensen is a business builder, right? This man is a technical genius, isn't he? But just because you're a technical genius or a business guru doesn't mean you'll always make the best stock decisions.

The fact that Nvidia has achieved a market cap of over $5 trillion is not due to any financial manipulation, but rather this man was able to exploit an incredible revolution in technology better than anyone else.

And now he's in a situation where he's got a lot of money coming in, and the question is what he's going to do with it. The truth is, I didn't like this at all. In my opinion, this is actually a very bad decision, a dramatically bad move.

Currently, Nvidia is in the strongest competitive position in their history. This is incredible. The company's net profit margin is now more than 60 percent. This is unprecedented. Unimaginable.

If a company's net profit margin exceeds 40 percent, you should question whether something is wrong. This is quite unusual. Nvidia is now sitting on a net profit margin of more than 60 percent.

They are able to sit on this net margin because every single one of the world's largest companies is now spending all of their revenue on Nvidia chips. They are also taking loans.

And they're willing to pay any price for these chips, okay?

Now, listen. It won't last forever, but this is the current situation, which is leading to these incredible net margins and putting Nvidia in a position where business is booming right now, because it's really incredible, right?

I think they'll end up buying these at a really bad price, okay? Because what I believe is going to happen is that we will see a major slowdown in chip demand in 2028. This doesn't mean that everyone will stop buying chips.

No, no, no. It doesn't work like that. But this will be a major slowdown.

Nvidia will continue this skyrocketing growth rate in 2027, right? And how do they achieve this incredible growth rate? They will achieve this rate in 2027 because every major tech company will spend all of their income, even taking on huge amounts of debt to finance it.

This is not sustainable. This is completely unsustainable, which means the real truth will come out in 2028. And that's when the big slowdown will begin. And if the market experiences problems with revenue growth for certain companies, it could lead to even more rapid setbacks. That's the whole situation, isn't it?

Therefore, there will be a slowdown in the chip market in 2028. And Nvidia will buy back a lot of shares when the business is in the best condition in terms of growth rate, gross margin, and net margin.

It's incredible, isn't it? And this keeps happening again and again.

We can say anything, okay? Listen, this cycle of chips is going to end like all other cycles. Suddenly you see it slowing down, margins start to shrink, revenue shrinks, net income and earnings per share decrease, and then you see a major recession.

And this game has been going on for many years. Upward cycles last for many years, then it stagnates and then a downward cycle continues for many years. It will happen like all the others.

It might seem like it will be different this time, but it won't be, okay?

Because mathematically it doesn't make any sense to be different. Even if all these tech companies had a lot of cash to spend, they're still spending every dollar they have and they're also taking on a lot of debt.

They would literally load up their balance sheets with debt just for these chips, right? This is not sustainable.

So, this is the situation before us, and it's a curious dynamic, but this is our reality, isn't it? But they are not the only ones doing this. Companies do this all the time, you know?

In my opinion, what they should do is this. They should keep all this money on the balance sheet, invest some in Treasuries, earn another $12 billion from that which could add to their net profit, and just hoard cash for the next 12 to 24 months.

Business is going great now. The margins are unusually high. Dude, save up some cash for the next year or two, okay? Save cash for the next year or two for the next recession, okay?

That would be the smartest thing for the company to do now, right?

But instead, they are doing the same thing that all cyclical companies do in the best of their business times, which is massive share buybacks.

So, this is the situation with Nvidia.

Jensen knows that well. Unfortunately, these people do n't know the most about stocks, because their attention is n't there. I have been paying attention to the stock market since 2008.

Lisa Su and Jensen, they do n't look at stocks. It's not their job. You see, it's not really their job. They focus on building incredible businesses and they do it brilliantly, right?

Nvidia went a long way and Nvidia succeeded, right? And that's why Nvidia's market cap is over $5 trillion and AMD's market cap is almost a trillion dollars, right?

Now, speaking of Nvidia's share buyback, one thing I will say is that since they are going to do such a large share buyback in the next 1 to 2 years, when the reality of chip demand declines comes to light—which will probably start in the second half of 2027—Nvidia's stock will get some support.

There's nothing to get too excited about, but it will provide some support for the overall market, because their market cap is so big, right? Therefore, it is necessary to keep this in mind.

Buying Nvidia was a great idea; A few years ago, Nvidia had a market capitalization of several hundred billion dollars, right? Nobody wanted Nvidia. It seemed like everyone had canceled it.

And now Nvidia's valuation has exceeded five trillion dollars. Everyone wants Nvidia now.

I'm talking about Micron, SanDisk, Nvidia, and even the great AMD.