QQQ faces potential for lower returns over the next 10-15 years due to high valuations and reliance on AI profitability assumptions.

While everyone was chasing Nvidia and AI stocks this year, a boring little dividend ETF quietly passed up QQQ and the S&P 500 in 2026.

Guys, if QQQ and SPY have higher highs to make as time goes on, my guess is they'll probably outperform SCHD in the long run. But if we have a bad bare market, I really think the difference in the SCHD performance versus the S&P and the and the um and QQQ will be very very large with the SCHD dominating the other two indexes.

When you own QQQ, you don't get to choose which tech stocks you hold. You're stuck with all of them, the winners and the losers.

If you look at their history, they're pretty much in tandem until this recent tech AI boom. SHD kept its own with SPY, but it's been crushed lately since the AI boom happened. Because of that, I do believe that when the AI boom ends, SCHD will fall a lot less than the big names and the big companies and the broader indexes that we're talking about.

Here's the problem. SPY and QQQ. As I mentioned earlier, these funds are weighted by market cap, and the biggest companies take up the most space. Right now, the biggest companies are all trading at massive valuations based on one assumption that AI is going to print money for them.

But what happens if that AI spending doesn't translate into profits as fast as they want? What happens when investors look at the tens of billions going out the door and nothing coming back yet?

But you look at the last 3, five, and 10 years, SPY and QQQ have beaten CHD over every single one of those periods.

If you bought QQQ at the very peak of 2000, you would have seen it immediately drop 80 plus%. But to today, if you kept dollar cost averaging along the way, you still would have made over 15% annualized return on your money.

That's crazy considering you started with an 80% drop.

SPY and QQQ on the other hand, those companies tend to keep most of their earnings inside the company, which means you don't pay those taxes ever. Over 20 or 30 years, that tax drag on CHD can eat it way at a meaningful chunk of your returns unless you have it in a tax advantage account.

And look, guys, having your money in an ETF like CHD, SPY, or even a little QQQ, that's smart.

The same thing will happen with the S&P and QQQ at some point. In fact, when Dalton and House when I brought him on board, I said, "Daltton, I want to own SPY and QQQ." Came back to me a day later, he goes, "Why not SCHD?"

We believe that the S&P 500 and QQQ could deliver lower returns over the next 10 or 15 years, but the Russell 2000 could be one of the best opportunities out there based on its history.