Buy and scale RH position over 6-9 months; expect strong returns over 3-5 years as a cyclical stock at multi-year lows.

RH got X'd out down 4% here today.

Okay, next up here, let's talk about stock I own that's making a huge move and uh what I'll do and where I'm going with that stock and am I going to sell, buy, all that good stuff and projections, all that, okay?

All righty, so, there's a video I put out one day and 22 hours ago. So, almost 48 hours ago, I put out this video. Looks like about 180,000 people have gotten to see it so far.

New stock I bought today. Right? And I talked about a lot in that video. I mean, a lot. I talked all about a lot more subjects and a lot of great subjects that are beyond just what stock I bought on that day, right?

But, this stock just came out with earnings. And the earnings were a C grade for this company. Keep in mind, the stock price has been destroyed on this company.

Net revenues grew to 922 million from 899 million the same quarter last year. Total cost of goods sold fell to 51.8% do keep in mind that was helped by the tariffs. So, that number would have been higher by tens of millions of dollars from what I saw, if it wasn't for the tariff help, okay?

There's kind of like these tariff refunds going on for these sorts of companies. And so, it made the cost of goods sold look better than it was, right?

Gross profit was $444 million for the company from 409, but once again, that got helped. SG&A was up really high for the company on a year-over-year basis. That went to 36.5% of revenues, 337 mil.

SG&A definitely really high for the company. They opened up a lot of huge galleries over the past year, including several in Europe. That's really weighing on that line item heavy right now.

And then you add on promotional and marketing expenses and things like that. That line item was out of control this quarter, right?

Operating income came in at 107 mil as 11.7%. That's down on a year-over-year basis, no doubt, right? Interest expense fell a bit for the company, so that's good. Interest expense fell about 51 million dollars for the quarter from about 57 million.

Total other expenses fell to 49 million from 56 million. If you look at this income before equity method investments, that would came in at 42 million dollars versus 53 million the same quarter last year, so that actually fell to the company, right?

Now, here the share of equity method investments net income loss, this was like 18 million dollar kind of I call it like a one-offish help for the company. It sort of made their net income look better than it should have been, which came in at about 60 million dollars, right?

First 52 million or just under 52 million same quarter last year. Diluted EPS 306 versus 262.

So, overall it was a very mixed bag quarter from this company. The company, by the way, is RH. And so, a very mixed bag as should be expected. This is not boom times for RH. This is the furthest thing from boom times for RH.

So, they should be Anything that they report that's not a disaster in this sort of market is actually a win, right?

Now, RH, the California company, uh reported revenues that increased 2.6%. That's a pretty weak number, but it's growth nonetheless, right? Topping the consensus estimate by about 6 million dollars.

Adjusted EBITDA came in at 178 million dollars, which turned up inclusive of a 55 That was a the number. 55 million dollars of a tariff benefit. RH noted that it expects to recognize an additional about a 14 million dollar tariff benefit in the second half of the year, which it plans to use to offset 50 million dollars of unplanned cost increases across its supply chain due to the significant sustained price spike in oil. Oil's gone crazy, as we all know, all right?

Looking ahead, RH expects Q3 revenue growth of 5 to 6%. And full year revenue growth of 5.5 to 7%. RH sees adjusted capital expenditures decreasing from 240 million dollars to 260 million dollars 2026 to 175 to 200 mil in 2027.

That's what we need to see. CapEx has to come down for this company. They've been spending like drunken sailors the last like 3 to 4 years coming off of their incredible amounts of money they were making kind of after Rona, right?

Like 2020, 2021, even in the 2023 this company was making money hand over fist and like put it in my hand. They're making so much money it was ridiculous, right? All that slowed down a major way, obviously, right?

And so now they got to bring down their CapEx, which is actually a very promising thing for where this company's net income goes over the next few years.

RH said its new real estate strategy includes RH compound, a multi-building shopping experience with connecting garden courtyards and central atrium restaurant under construction in Naples, Florida, scheduled to open at the end of 2026 or the beginning of 2027.

Another RH compound is expected to begin its construction in Aventura. Uh Florida, which is going to open in 2027. So, new concept for RH. We'll see how successful it is.

All I know is I want them to keep spending under control this year, next year, and really, you know, I mean, we're already so deep in this year. I really want to see them keep spending under control 2027, 2028.

This company should not be spending big money. Um They've built so many flagship galleries now at this point in time. Yeah, I do not think that we're we we really should be in a mode of major expansion right now for the company.

Like we're very well positioned out this point in time, right?

Now, more good I got some really good news for the company and that is cash is building on the company's balance sheet, which gives me more comfort investing in the stock and building a position, right?

So, cash balance is now up to $125 million. It started out this year at $41 million, which is a really low number. I want to see that balance continue to build for the company overall.

Debt came has come down a bit for the company since the beginning of this year, but they haven't brought it down in a major way. But, the main thing is I want to see that cash balance build.

Build that baby to at least a a quarter of a billion dollars. That's what I want to see. Build the cash balance to at least a quarter billion dollars and then really focus on paying down debt.

And so, I would love them to do that all the way to 2030, actually. Like 2030, build that cash balance to a quarter billion, keep it there, and let's just focus on, you know, spending as little as possible on CapEx.

You know, we want to always keep the places beautiful. If you have an opportunity to make a restaurant on an old location or something like that, like let's do it. But, keep CapEx lower until 2030, right?

Let's pay down a bunch of this debt. And then, you know, 2030 plus we can focus on expansion again, right?

But, I think the company has spent so much money over the past few years like expanding these galleries and making these locations that I'm just like like I don't think we need to open up a ton more galleries in over the next few years.

Like we're we're positioned in the markets we really need to be positioned in and I think we need to calm down on all that, right?

Now, as far as me with the stock, what am I planning on doing with the stock? Here's what I'm planning on doing. Listen. Public account, I'm going to likely start a position and I'm going to scale that position over the next 6 to 9 months.

I want to scale the position while mortgage rates are high. I want to scale the position while no one's excited about real estate market. Why? Why do I want to do it when everything's crap?

Um listen, that's when you get the best prices on cyclical stocks.

If you're going to build a position in a cyclical stock, which RH at the end of the day is a cyclical stock, right? Maybe someday they they find a way to not be cyclical, but as of right now RH is a cyclical company, okay?

Listen, if you want to make a lot of money in a cyclical stock, you better buy it when everything's trash, when everything's garbage, when they're not making any money, when no one wants a piece of that stock, when that stock's at multi-year lows, when it's down 80% over the past 5 years.

If you're going to build a position, that's when you got to build it out. You do not want to build a position in a cyclical stock when everything looks great, when they're making more money than they know what to do with, because the other side of that's coming.

And you look at RH 5 years ago, guess what? They were making more money than they knew what to do with, right? And that's why they built all these new galleries and everything that's cost them a fortune of money to do, and they were buying yachts and private planes and all this stuff, right?

We're going to build luxury hotels and all this stuff. Cool. You've got a negative 80% return over the past 5 years in the stock, right? Negative 80%.

I believe I'm going to get an insanely attractive return in the stock over the next, you know, we can call it 3 to 5 years, right? And I could be wrong, but I think I'm going to be right, right?

And I went into my projections in this particular video that I released less than 48 hours ago, new stock I bought today. So, if you want to see all my stock price projections for where our RH stock's headed over time, and all that good stuff, you can definitely check out that, right?