RIVN is currently overvalued; wait for a 10-20% price drop to upgrade to buy.

Rivian's management team told investors that by the end of 2026 they would be able to provide point-to-point autonomous driving capabilities. Therefore, if Rivian manages to develop and offer this technology, it could be an interesting selling point that increases car sales, as well as high-margin revenues; The program does not include a large cost of goods sold associated with each additional dollar.

So, does this make Rivian stock a buying opportunity right now, ahead of that launch? This capability will come at a time when Rivian is already experiencing growth in its sales.

Over the past twelve months, Rivian has generated $5.9 billion in sales, and management recently launched a lower-priced SUV, which is exactly what customers in the United States are looking for.

SUVs are in higher demand in the United States than any other type of vehicle. Well, some might argue that trucks are also in high demand, but certainly more than regular cars or sedans, the SUV and truck categories, which is what Rivian specifically sells, are the two most in-demand categories in the United States.

The administration said initial sales of the R2, the less expensive SUV model, are going better than expected.

And this is before Rivian introduced a lower-priced version of the R2. Currently, the recently introduced R2 models sell for between $50,000 and $60,000. Rivian hopes to introduce a model starting at $45,000.

This will undoubtedly attract another broad segment of customers interested in this lower price range.

As Rivian’s sales increase, the company’s profitability also improves. More importantly, its cash flow from operations relative to sales is improving. At -31.4%, this is significantly better than Rivian was in 2024, when its operating cash flow relative to sales was less than -125%.

The management team is still targeting a positive gross margin by the fourth quarter of 2020. In 2026, the introduction of a lower-priced model with point-to-point autonomous navigation will significantly boost the company's cash flow.

If Rivian can offer anything comparable to Tesla's self-driving technology, it could generate high-margin revenue from a segment consumers are willing to pay for.

So, if you've been following me for a while, you know I've been warning investors to avoid Rivian stock for years—ever since I started covering the company. I've never rated it as a buy.

I've almost always warned investors it's overpriced. I hope you watched those videos and avoided this disaster. The stock has dropped over 85% in the last five years.

So, I'm actually... I'd love to see Rivian's stock rise because I'd benefit from it, wouldn't I? But I ca n't go against my research, and my research consistently shows that Rivian's stock has been significantly overvalued throughout my analysis of the company.

However, after these large sell-offs, Rivian's valuation now looks much more attractive. The stock is currently trading at a price-to-forward ratio of 1.8. This is close to the lowest price the stock has traded at on this metric in several years.

With the success of the R2 model and the arrival of point-to-point autonomous driving later this year, the situation looks even more appealing to investors. I've also revised and updated my valuation of Rivian using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, and based on this, I've calculated a fair value of around $13 per share.

The current market price is $15.54. It still looks overvalued at these levels, but it's getting very close to the point where I would upgrade Rivian's rating to "buy."

and I believe it's a company Great cars. Their cars look really great. The management team has made some very good decisions since coming into the market, realizing that demand for electric cars would never reach the levels they initially estimated.

They've adjusted their scale and taken all the right steps ever since.

So, I'm rooting for this company and wishing them success. But I don't think they're there yet. I'd wait for a further 10-20% drop in the stock price before upgrading this stock to a "buy."