SBUX is currently overvalued; hesitate to buy at this price.

In this video, we will be discussing Starbucks, whose stock market symbol is SBUX. We will review the basics of Starbucks' business, how it generates profits, look at some numbers, and then try to determine the fair value of a Starbucks stock to see if investing in it is worthwhile today.

For the past year or so, Starbucks has been doing well, not badly. It is true that the stock has declined slightly recently, but its overall performance has been good. However, if we go back in time , let's say to a five- year chart, we will find that the stock's performance was not good, and there are logical reasons for that .

Okay, now let's move on to how Starbucks divides its business. So , we note that they divide their work according to sectors and regions. Most of their revenue comes from the United States .

This is extremely important because it reflects the company's structure.

As for Starbucks, it operates most of its restaurants itself. In the United States, the company operates about 61% of all cafes, not just restaurants. The rest are licensed, where someone pays the operating fees, while someone else manages them.

This is important because it determines how revenue is calculated. If the cafe is owned and operated by the company , all revenues and expenses are recorded directly in Starbucks' financial statements.

If it is a licensed restaurant, as is the case with Target stores, then revenues are not counted , but only the fees that are collected are counted, such as trademark fees, licensing fees, and the like.

The fees that Starbucks receives from Target for using its brand are what it records in its books as revenue.

So, in the United States, where the company operates 61% of its branches, the cafes operated by the company generate about 85% of the revenue, for logical reasons. First, we see the revenues here.

Overall, revenue performance was good. We have seen some price increases and growth in the number of stores, and several factors have contributed to this situation. Overall, revenues are good, but when looking at profit margins, we find them to be very low.

In fact, profit margins have dropped from the mid-tens to the single digits. It hasn't dropped to single digits since 2020. And as we all know what happened in 2020, we'll overlook that.

We notice a similar problem when looking at net income profit margins. Let's now take a broader look at this whole situation. Let's go back ten years. Ten years ago, net income profit margins were relatively high.

Since then , and especially in the last few years, net income profit margins have come under increasing pressure.

Over the past year and a half or so, management has spoken about some of the problems they have noticed. In short, what they said was that visiting Starbucks has become a purely commercial process, excessively focused on profit.

The friendly atmosphere was lost, and their main goal became making huge profits. This is not what brought them to this size. They have long sought to be that special, friendly place that customers frequent, where the staff are friendly and everyone is friendly, a nice place to relax and perhaps hold meetings via Zoom.

But as time went on, things became less focused on that, and more practical.

In 2025, they launched the " Green Apron" service, which is the administration's plan to address this specific problem. Simply put, they intend to hire more employees. In fact, I believe they have invested $ 500 million globally in employee training and hiring new employees, with the aim of training them to be friendly, providing them with the latest technologies, and improving the customer experience.

They are trying to return to their roots in providing a friendly place, a place that focuses more on the experience than on closing the deal. It is true that they sell premium coffee, so it is natural that the purchase is important, but what is interesting is that they have seen a significant improvement in the numbers over the past two quarters.

This is a quick look at quarterly earnings per share . They have already managed to attract customers again, which is impressive. In short, the plan is to make customers feel more welcome, and to maintain the speed and efficiency of work in the restaurant.

They also stated clearly: "We are looking to hire more staff to work during peak times." They are receiving increasing requests through apps such as Uber and others.

Well, they are trying to address all these problems, and modernize their branches, and let's not forget that they manage many of these branches. So, they are trying to improve their financial situation by attracting more customers, and they hope to encourage them to spend more money while they are in the store because they enjoy shopping there.

This leads us to the question: Is this strategy successful? Well, it is clear, when you look at the numbers, that it did indeed contribute to the increase in demand . The stores have seen a significant improvement in sales.

In fact, the number of customers is increasing, and they are spending more money. This is a positive thing.

But the most important question on Wall Street, even when I listened to the earnings calls and read the transcripts on the Investors Group website, I noticed, when reviewing the annual chart , that the most important question now is: What is the cost ?

The company is hiring more people, upgrading stores, improving technology, developing management, and all of these things.

Well, all of this is great. I believe it is necessary to continue expanding the brand and improving its quality, but what will the profit margins be like in the future? That was the real question.

They did not invest in temporary solutions such as using artificial intelligence or modern technology to solve their problems. No, part of their problem is their desire to hire more staff, to be more friendly, to get to know regular customers, to write little notes on their mugs, and so on.

They want to get back to what made Starbucks what it is today, and I think that's great from a brand perspective , but it will come at a price.

Will the new profit margins be at lower levels? This was the question many Wall Street analysts were asking in their latest calls. Now, before we get into the fair value of Starbucks, I would like to point out one more thing .

Some of these figures are a little inaccurate, because one important event that I don't want to overlook is that Starbucks has many stores in China, but it recently divested. A Chinese company bought the majority stake in its business in China, and I believe, if I am not mistaken, that Starbucks owns 40%, while that company owns 60%.

This will affect revenues, because they now do not count their company-owned stores, but only the licensing fees, not the franchise fees, as they call them at Starbucks. At McDonald's or similar establishments, it is called a franchise fee.

For Starbucks, it's a licensing fee. So, they are now receiving licensing fees. Therefore, their numbers will be slightly affected as a result.

But I'm not too worried as long as the company—and as long as the management there is committed to the brand— this actually looks like a good move . Let a local company deal with the local political and geopolitical pressures that Starbucks may not need to deal with , and it can simply take its share of the profits.

So, let's move on to the fair value of Starbucks stock. One of the new features we are launching on the " Investor Growth" website, which I believe is very useful, is the new chart that displays the price-to- earnings ratio.

Simply put, this chart takes the price-to- earnings multiple and compares it to the five- year median average. If you are interested , this is what a price- to-earnings ratio chart looks like with a five- year median average.

The line in the middle represents the five- year median average. How is the stock priced at any given time relative to this median average?

It is best to buy the stock when its price is low. As for selling, it depends on the type of investor. I am personally a long-term investor, so I don't focus on selling a lot, but rather on buying and paying the right price.

Returning to the value zones chart, the idea here is that anything in green represents the best price we have seen over the past five years, while anything in red represents the worst prices.

If you are interested, the numbers above give us an idea of ​​the expected return if you buy the stock when its price is high, and how it will compare to buying it when its price is low.

For example, with Starbucks, the stock will rise by approximately 7% if you buy it when its price is high, while it will fall by 5% or 6% if you buy it when its price is low.

Using this metric , we note that although Starbucks' stock price has recently declined, it is still relatively high compared to its average over the past five years. Therefore, I am hesitant to invest heavily at the current price.

As many of you know, I always make sure to review my work thoroughly, and a good way to evaluate companies like Starbucks or McDonald's is to use discounted free cash flow.

Now, on the Investors Go website, when looking at analyst forecasts, the first thing I noticed when looking at this chart is that free cash flow performance has not been good over the past decade.

For example, its performance was not good ten years ago, as we witnessed an exceptional year, and a very bad year in 2020.

But, interestingly, analysts expect an improvement in performance. This new business model they are adopting, and this new direction towards improving their business and trying to provide better customer service, I think is a great step.

But I think the current cash flow is exaggerated. When we looked at the price-to-earnings ratio, we found it to be exaggerated as well . In any case, the company seems overvalued at the moment , although I think it is an excellent company, and frankly, I wish I had bought its shares back then.

I wish I were aware of it. I haven't looked at this company for a while, but if I had bought its shares when it was in the green zone, when it was undervalued relative to its free cash flow, I think it would have been more interesting at this price.

At this price, even though the share price has dropped a little, I think I needed a bigger drop, but I'm still curious and excited to follow this company.