SIM has margin of safety and upside potential from licensing/fleet, but carries high risk due to management execution/timing issues.

I think this is really important and I think this has a lot of future and for for me this thesis is okay the DMS ramp up in Europe I think it's priced in that's the base I think that's margin of safety if that doesn't derail h I should not lose big money I think fleet has huge optionality not only on their classic uh business model we could say of selling the hardware but on licensing it they are going to license their solution to hardware world developers, they are already working on a deal to start doing that and that solves lots of their problems because basically with competition you stop competing with telematics players and instead you integrate into them meaning in telematics player with really bad DMS solutions have good DMS solutions that can work better with clients and improve safety uh and clients will will demand that and sim gets a royalty for that the market it's smaller but it's also higher margin.

So I think that should be some optionality that we should see over the coming years.

They are already close to a deal with uh I think it's Taiwanese or Japanese player uh that that's going to develop their own hardware solution but their but their software didn't work as well.

So they wanted to put on shing machines as white label. We could see poor royalty like in the automotive side.

Not yet. they have not yet landed them. they they recently because the the first time I talked with them uh I you know I I raised the same problem you you mentioned to me okay you have this great solution but first of all you have a very small surface you are not a big player you cannot compete on the other offerings that these telematics players are offering so you know you have a great solution why not license it why not partner it so you know they've understood that was that was a very interesting opportunity they have started pursuing it so far they've they've they've gotten interest.

If from my understanding this deal they are pursuing it was out of inbound interest. It was not them pursuing other deals but they are actually now pursuing other players to do this type of of licensing deals in the in the fleet side.

Yeah, he has he has more trenches and at very high prices like the the poor guy needs this to work and work really well to make uh money on on those like I think he has some at 20 p on some or something like that which you know about a foury year time frame if they execute on fleet and they and they execute on on automotive they could achieve that basically 50 million in free cash flow 20x multiple you get to you know 3x higher price than this one than than the current one.

So I think if they execute they can achieve h they can achieve those targets and I mean if they if they execute on those he deserves to to be paid really well.

Uh you know I've spoken with him quite a lot. He's really hardworking like he takes calls on Saturdays on Sundays. Uh they are always traveling uh talking with investors uh licensing deals everything. they they're very very hardworking people.

But some some stuff I want to mention around management is if you talk with people that have been invested in the stock for the last 10 years, they have a very bad opinion on it mainly because they usually overpromise on timing.

Uh, and that's something I I've got to understood better as I've stalled with them. They tend to overpromise on timing because it's hard to know from when you got that deal that's that's practically close to when you receive the paperwork.

It's very variable with these OEMs. So, my my experience is they tend to be right on what they will achieve, but they tend to be a bit late or a while late on timing.

First, just to the management incentives, I should have gone earlier because it is so rare to see stock price incentives in a European company. As soon as I saw that, I was like, "Oh, that is really interesting because it's so rare and when people do that, they tend to like again, no one can ever control where the stock price goes, right?

But they tend to have a vision of how they're going to get there and the vision that they have when they granted these and the way the awards are set very much plays out with the vision you're you're doing, right? So, that's nice.

I guess my push back on what you just said and we can wrap it up after this, but you know, a lot of what I've heard have been the places where I've made the greatest amounts of money and the biggest mistakes, right?

Where it's, hey, if you talk to an investor who's been here for 10 years, they hate this management team, right?

And every time, you know, I invest in a company like, oh, you know, this company's been misunderstood and misfed for 10 years, but now I'm going to invest in it and the market's suddenly going to change. you know the this management team they've been 10 people who have 10 years they've got gray hair as they're pulling their hairs out but I'm going to come in and the management team seems nice to me like you know you kind of learn after 10 years and it's like oh yes these guys are really good talkers but they never deliver and a lot of what you've said has some of that flavor to it where it's like hey these guys can never quite land the contracts on time because it takes a while it's like well yeah but you know I I I'm thinking about one company that has been a just pain in my side for years it's like hey at some point it's not me.

It is actually them, right? They keep saying, "Oh, the this big refi is on the come. Oh, this big performance on the come." It's like I I'm sure you believe that, but now I've got 10 years that you're overpromising.

I I I mean, I completely agree and it shows in price action. like there's not a lot of institutionals in the stock like most of this is traded by retail like it's like a a sitco on the on the London market.

Uh so the the most interesting thing here is that it usually reacts really slow. So you know for those listening probably when they get the refinancing done it will move slowly.

So you will have some time uh to look into it. it will pro probably in my opinion this will start to move up quickly and fast when they get their fleet segment uh you know they they do a turnaround there and they start to deliver on that.

So my view is that okay I have decent margin of safety um uh with with the GSR ramp up and those royalties if they execute on fleet and if any of the next regulation legs comes it's huge upside but it's definitely one of the riskier riskiest stocks in my portfolio.