SNOW is overvalued (PEG ~4.7, low FCF yield); rally is a short squeeze; speaker holds no position.

We have " Snowflake" on the list.

Snowflake will announce its results before them.

The following is simply an attention to Hewlett-Packard and Snowflake. So, we will monitor that.

Therefore, we should now get the Snowflake data in approximately 15 seconds . They have recovered a lot in the field of data. So, if we go to the snow, let's keep them on top.

Operating margins exceeded expectations by 14.5% compared to 13.5%. The revenue forecast for the fiscal year is better than expected. I will do the calculations in a little while.

Product revenues exceeded expectations by 1.59 billion compared to the expected 1.15 billion . Wow, the stock has already risen by about 11-12% . Oh, my God. Software, my friend.

Third-quarter product revenues exceeded expectations, and adjusted earnings per share beat expectations at 62 versus 45 cents. I mean, these are really good numbers from Snowflake.

Look at that jump in "Snowflake", wow, 16% almost instantaneously in trading after the market closed.

Let's take a look at "Snow". "Snow". "Snow". " Snow". "Snow". What do we have here? Stocks rose by 17% . We are still waiting for Broadcom. The results are clearly expected within six minutes.

I have a profit margin of 14.5% versus 13.5%. This is a positive sign. Product revenue. Let's look at the product's revenue here. The fiscal year was 6.07 billion, and the estimates were 5.85.

5.85 This is a 3.76% increase, not a huge increase, but it is still an increase. Second quarter revenue. Second quarter revenues exceeded 1.55 billion compared to 1.49. 495 divided by 49 is a 4% increase. Good.

By the way, if you want to follow some of these numbers, you can download the "Meet Kevin" app for free from the Apple or Android store. I just typed "Snowflake" into the little search bar here, and you can see some of those numbers popping up here.

You can usually click on them to get more insights as well. Depending on whether the story has already been algorithmically filled in . I see that. Look at that. A small part of the story has already been filled in here . This is rather wonderful.

Well, I mean, what we're seeing here, whether it's exposed center coverage or not, is exceptional. Snowflake stock jumped 19%. This is unbelievable. Therefore, this should help boost the morale of other software companies in post- shutdown transactions.

It seems like Snowflake is tweeting alone , while HPE's stock has declined following their earnings and expanded partnership with Oracle, so this is interesting.

Whereas in " Snowflake", if someone wants to send a signal, they press the buy button. Oh, my God. Ah, regarding some of those profits, the stock had already started to take off in the software sector.

So, what's happening here is truly remarkable . Oh, my God.

Ah, well, "Snowflake" helps us confirm that the software bottom for the third and fourth quarters has passed. Ah, this is something we've been talking about since about May. Ah, so that's exciting.

It is already shrinking the software buying window near the bottom, especially when movements like " Snowflake" occur. But it always seems to be the case. It's like when the rising tide starts , you feel like, "Oh my God, is it too late?"

You know , that's always the feeling. It's a kind of stock market struggle. That's okay .

Okay, then, "Snowflake". Yes, just keep an eye on it. They have now reached 21%. Oh, my God. Ah, so we'll have to do some analysis of what's going on here. Their operating margin...ah, let's see here.

Operating margin. Yes, we'll take a look at some of this in a bit. We will cover all of that.

Good. So, what are Snowflake's predictions? Next, we will talk a little about Broadcom. I am very curious to see how a snowflake rises so high . Let's begin. Let me take a look at their financial data.

So, Snowflake expects to be profitable this year. Wall Street expects profitability of 1.96 this year. Then they expect growth of 47.8, 41.8, 47.58, 33.8 divided by 4, they expect growth of 40%.

40.99% expected growth . And now they are trading, well, in post-closing trading they are trading at, do you know what that is? 360 or something like that. 380, 380 divided by 1.96, is trading at 193 times, oh 1938.

Let's say 193.8 times price-to-earnings ratio. Wow, that's crazy. And if you divide that by 40.99, which is the expected growth of Wall Street, then the PEG ratio is 4.72. This trading...you know, it looks like the highest-value cybersecurity stocks that are trading at high levels, like a rich cyber stock with consistent annual recurring revenues.

That's the general impression. So realistically, in an ideal situation, and with ideal ownership, assuming the pricing power is expanding, the price is likely to be closer to 269 , 269, in that range, multiplied by 41, let's say multiplied by 1.96, yes, maybe closer to $200 .

You know, this stock has risen a lot, based on the latest forecasts. Therefore, the rating is a little high , and it is most likely closer to $200. Oh my God.

Let's find out exactly what's going on. Who knows, maybe their profit margins are expanding much more than expected. Let's see what we have here. Snowflake's investor relations.

Good. concept. Then let's move on to the resources. Where are the files from the Securities and Exchange Commission? Where are your earnings reports? It's truly astonishing how difficult it is to find .

We will find your profits. Investor relations. Oh, there's a different list of investors. They have two "hamburger" menus. Well , that makes sense. A stacked hamburger menu. Yes, that was their current report.

Okay, that's fine. Once you know him, you will always know him. Snowflake earnings report. Press release 9226. Let's open this up. This stock is up 23% now. Good. So, here's Snowflake's earnings reading.

Let's see what they have. I am very curious to know what is here. Okay, here's the cash flow. Yes, look at this. So, you are losing money. This is not necessarily a bad thing because we can expect you to reach profitability, and that's good.

This is widely expected. Now, a lot of revenue is deferred. This is good. This will help boost cash flow. Wow, they're spending a lot on stock compensation.

This stock is up 23% now. Good. Wow, they're spending a lot on stock compensation. Look at those stock compensations. $423 million in stock compensation.

But okay, the properties, factories, and equipment. So, we have a cash flow of approximately $84 million as free cash flow. This will be within three months. Then I really don't see, it just seems that ... let's see here.

The company covered the employee stock taxes . It is not unusual to see that here. Because you don't want to burden them with a tax bill, forcing them to sell their shares and all that. Good.

Accounts payable and current liabilities due, and we have a lot of deferred revenue here. So, the amount is approximately 1.1 billion in the form of invoices. I have convertible and long-term bonds worth about 2.4 billion.

It seems I have an abundance of cash. Yes. So, that's about 2.3 billion in cash.

They also have another 718 billion in debtors' accounts. Therefore , the balance sheet is acceptable. Good. The balance sheet. Not great. Not bad. This is the description I like to use.

So, I'm not overly excited about this budget. It is acceptable.

So, let's see here. What do we have here? Where is my income statement ? Income. Income. Income. Okay, let's begin . So, let's see what we have.

The total profit is 1036.7 divided by 773.15, an increase of 34% in total profit. I have revenues that increased divided by 1144.9 35%. So this is a fairly stable pricing power , isn't it?

A stable pricing force , not an increasing one as you know. Nothing worth calling home to tell them about , is it? This is good.

Their costs are rising at the same rate as their revenues. Their sales are on the rise. This actually looks better . Yes, that's right. 21.8% of sales. This is the profit margin.

This is good. 567 . Therefore, their profit margin is within operating expenses at 492. Only 15.3% in research and development and stable in administrative and general expenses. This is very good.

So they are indeed expanding their operations, which is a very good thing, especially when you are losing money. A 16.7% increase in operating expenses indicates that they are expanding their operations and moving towards profitability.

This must be putting a lot of pressure on the exposed positions. I wonder how large their open positions were. Let's see here. Interest on open positions. Yes , high interest on open positions.

I have 3.89 days to cover these centers. Therefore, it takes some time to cover. So interest on short positions has been rising since the last quarter. As of the last quarter, 3.89 days of coverage represents a high risk.

The risk of pressure on exposed positions. Yes , because I don't really see how they are achieving such overwhelming success in the core, you know, like "Dell," I consider it a radical change of rules, don't you?

Here, yes, we are expanding our operating expenses, and revenues and balance sheet are stable. Well, I don't think the cash flow return is great. The cash flow yield is 106.

Let's find out what they expect regarding their cash flow . Let me see if I can figure that out. cash flow. cash flow. cash flow . Where did you place the cash flow statement ? Oh, it's right here .

So here is a cash flow for six months. Oh, look, they have great renewal periods too. Net cash provided for the property is 300 within six months. Well, it's still not that bad, actually.

Let me see what their financial year projections are. Predictions. Snowflake predictions. Oh, they don't offer it. Well, that's disappointing. Is it mentioned here above? Otherwise, I will just look at last year.

Okay, here we are. The adjusted free cash flow margin is 23%. Good. Well, this doesn't tell me the cash flow figure from product revenues. Okay , that's fine. I'll jump straight to last year. Let me see.

Free cash flow last year was approximately 1.1 billion. Yes, this is probably similar to what we have. Good. Yes, this is not very great.

For me, I look at it and say I have a company with a market value of around 106 plus now 22%. 1.22. I have a company worth about $130 billion here. So, a company worth $130 billion with a generous free cash flow of $1.2 billion .

This means 1.2 divided by 130, which is less than 1% as a free cash flow return . This is actually not very good.

High ratings resulting from financial losses. Perhaps this is what led to the rise in short-term interest rates. It seems to me like a short-term interest rate squeeze. That makes sense in my opinion, based on how fast that arrow was launched, oh my God. This is a tale of two cities. How wonderful.

Last year, free cash flow amounted to 26 billion. That could actually rise to $51 billion this year. So the forecast is $51 billion . $51 billion in free cash flow projections ending October 31, 2026.

Now this will end up being more than, what, a 3 or 4% cash flow return. The market value is 1.75 multiplied by 0.96 for the discount they just went down by. That's 1680.52 divided by 1680.

Ah, that's 3%. Good. I mean, but it's not bad. So, 3%. 3% free cash flow return and expectations for this guy.

3. Well, it's low now. How much is it worth? 355. Let's divide 355 by 1156. That equals 30.71 times as multiple predictions for this. We expect, oh, let's see, profit margins to be in the fifties.

Man, these guys are raising the margins drastically. They are, as you know, a 55% net expected margin, the expected growth is 66.4 + 34 26 539.67 67 divided by 4 34%. Oh, average growth over 4 years .

Hey buddy, it's less than one for the growth factor (PEG). Oh my God. 30.71 divided by 34 equals 0.90. This is madness. This is very cheap for these margins.

As you know, this is a very similar discount to what happens at Nvidia. Broadcom and Nvidia are only penalized because of these high expectations, and when they make a small mistake or whatever.

It's just not perfect enough , and the stock is falling . But if you compare that to Snowflake, man, those numbers, you know, aren't even close.

Oh, they announced with Snowflake. Yes , yes, yes, yes. And with Open AI. Good. Good. UI Fusion, Intelligent Automation, UI Path with Snowflake Cortex AI . Ah, UI Maestro, Snowflake, and so on and so forth. Yes. Yes.

Think of "Snow" or "Sales Force" for example; It accommodates " Snowflake" or "Salesforce" data without a user interface. But that means people are using "cloud", right , and not "CRM".

So does this mean that CRM's days are numbered ? Each side faces existential risks. This is really annoying. It is clear that the software sector has gone through a period of intensive selling.

I still believe that it is still in a relatively heavy selling phase . Good. In other words, there are still opportunities, whether it's Bath or CRM now. I'm less interested in them at the moment, but I'm only listing them because many people are asking about them.

You could even say that "Snow" falls within this range. It doesn't matter, you know? The software sector has gone through a period of intense selling. Now, the upward trend is burning through short selling positions.

Well, as we just saw in "Snowflake". But interestingly, the devices are currently experiencing a period of intense sales, aren't they? Why? Why " Nvidia" or "Avgo", I don't know, what are the names of other cheap devices?

Um, honestly, "Credo," "Marvel," you know those, those people. While Avgo and Nvidia are probably the cheapest, even AMD, although more expensive, I'd say a little, let me see the expectations now.

So, if you go to, let me get it quick, if you go to Marvel, I'm at Marvel, and AMD is at 1.58. Marvell has a Profitability Growth Factor (PEG) of 1. Yes. So this is a coefficient of 1.

1.58 is the coefficient for "AMD" . Let's see. "Credo" is approximately 1. "Nvidia" is 0.75. 0.75. This is 1. Then if you go to "Broadcom". " Avgo", "Broadcom", " Broadcom" at 0.93.

Oh, we just did the math . Let me make sure it's still there . We literally just turned it on. 0.9. Yes. correct. So here. So, 0.9 . And now suddenly these men have started to become really cheap.

Like Salesforce, which went from nothing ridiculous, look, Salesforce is still at a coefficient of 0.91, 0.91 as an example. Bath at 0.92, ServiceNow at 153.92. Aya 1.53, I have an intention at.

0.9 , Axon 2.1. 2.19. What did you say about Intuit? I had already forgotten. I don't want to write it incorrectly and then get reprimanded. 0.9. You know, Snow is the anomaly here, isn't he ?

So, Snow is the anomaly in this insane assessment. But it's strange because these companies are making really good money , and they're being punished either because of fear, lack of margins, or because people think the bubble is over.

The only thing I can guess is. You know, when we look at this graph we have here. There is a fear that this shift in programming may not last. So, you know, I think if I look at this, I still like my opinion, and my conclusion is that I still like software right now.

But at some point, devices will become ridiculously cheap , to the point that they will once again become the new opportunity. Hmm, not yet. Perhaps we need an " anthropic retreat".

Good. I mean , Dell is doing well, but you also have the risk of splitting, right? Also, with regard to devices, this is where the risks of division come from. We've talked before about the risk of splitting here, where AI and frontier inference growth slows, while low-margin institutional inference explodes.

This may be what the markets are trying to explore, I don't know. if . My opinion remains that the software is really interesting. Snowflakes are really expensive. At some point, hardware becomes more desirable, but software is great.

I still believe that reaching the bottom in the third and fourth quarters is still possible. And depressions like Balantir are exploitable. In my opinion.

Let's take a quick look at what happened to Broadcom's earnings as its stock fell by 3%. It has missed its revenue forecast for the next quarter again. This happened last time due to shipments of allocated chips, and the stock plummeted by 20%.

A further 3% drop now in after-hours trading. That's not a good thing. What's going on ? Was Credo Technologies a warning of what was to come? Perhaps a little bit of pricing power pressure.

I don't know . We'll take a look at it and see. Then of course there was this crazy explosion in "S โน Flick". "Sin Flake" stock jumped 20% in about 10 seconds, that's how it looked after the earnings .

It's like, wait a minute. This cannot be based on the fundamentals. It looks like pressure on exposed positions. Let's review both of them and try to understand what's going on here.

But now, we will focus on "S โน Flick " and then we will focus on " Broadcom". Good. So, some actual figures that have just been released, the basic earnings data, are displayed on the screen.

This is good. Good. So, we get to the basics, such as Snowflake's product revenue rising by 3.76%. In fact, this percentage is not large , but their adjusted earnings per share exceeded expectations by 37% for the second quarter.

This is extremely important. We'll get to that in a moment. It is a rather expensive aspect. It is traded like the shares of cybersecurity companies with high annual recurring revenues.

On the other hand, Broadcom missed expectations for the fourth quarter. By a difference of only 7%. Let's take a look at the actual basics and see if we can draw some conclusions from that.

So, " Snowflake" is here. Snowflake is an interesting company. Snowflake has stable pricing power at the revenue level, but in reality, it increases its pricing power at its operating expenses.

Therefore, while total revenues and expenses increase by about 35%, management costs and operating expenses increase by only 16%. In other words, for every dollar of additional profit growth, they see spending growth of only 50 cents .

This difference is very tempting. It expands somewhat on the growth side only. So, this is great. This increases pricing power. But if we look at the rest of the company in terms of cash flow yield, we find that the company has a cash flow yield of less than 1%.

We are talking about 0.9% perhaps compared to this company, which is worth $120 or $130 billion after the rise we have seen. Therefore, their cash flow is somewhat symbolic. It's not like they're borrowing.

They have repurchased shares in the past six months . So, that will be in the last quarter. They did not repurchase any shares in the last quarter here. Regarding their balance sheet, let's take a look at it.

She will appear before us now. I have $2.3 billion in cash plus another $718 million in accounts receivable. I have plenty of money to pay off $1.1 billion in bills. I have about $3 billion here.

You can practically pay off all your long-term debts. Not the most wonderful thing . They do not have unlimited funds to buy other companies or make other deals. It's not as if they're sitting on a fortress of cash, but the situation is good.

As you know, they don't have a real debt problem. What they have is a company that is expanding from an operating loss to a profit. And I think what's happening here is that they're going through a short squeeze because I think people are looking around and saying , you know, I think it's very simple.

Hey, I'm pessimistic about software companies. Whose shares will I be short selling? Let me find some software companies that trade at infinite price-to-earnings ratios. oh well .

I will only use the subsequent price-to-earnings ratio. Ah, oh, how wonderful. I will find all the losing companies and sell them short. This company entered the profit phase with a high percentage of short selling.

It takes about 4 days to cover the short positions that are based on it. About 4 days. 3.89 days. That's too much. The company is actually expected to become profitable. So, if we do a little calculation on this, where did you write that?

Ah, if we do some calculations on this, we have, let's see, where did you put it? Hmm, okay. Okay, we will evaluate it ourselves. Oh , I think we put it on the webpage. decent.

It will end up appearing in the stocks tab of the "Meet Kevin" membership. So, if you're not part of it yet, join us. We've extended the coupon code for a week, but only because we had a problem and the payment gateway went down on the coupon's expiry day, Friday.

So, join us at me.com. He has returned to work again. Everything is fine. Teachable is happy. Everyone is happy. Things went well. They have apologized, and we would like you to join us at meetke.com for lifetime access.

But let's evaluate Snowflake's stock. So, if I evaluate Snowflake, I arrive at an estimate of $1.96. Of the expected profits, it is trading at approximately 365 divided by 1.96.

This thing is trading at approximately 186 times the price-to-earnings ratio. Even with positive earnings projected growth of 41% over the next four years on average annually, that amounts to about 4.5 of the PEG ratio.

This is expensive. As I said, they are traded like cybersecurity companies. Cybersecurity, as you know, is...the problem with cybersecurity is that cybersecurity doesn't have, and I think that's why the ratings in cybersecurity are so high.

Ah, cybersecurity, in my opinion, does not face the existential risks that

I don't own anything in "Snowflake" and it's too high. But I also didn't want to buy "S โน and Flick" because, to me, it's too expensive, and it doesn't have the cybersecurity advantage of endpoint management that cybersecurity companies have.

Therefore, I don't know how this rating of this company can be justified. I mean, it's generating great profits thanks to "Short Squeeze," but it was too expensive for me and I have doubts about the disappearance of those competitive advantages.

UiPath announces a partnership with Snowflake as part of a proxy automation process to improve automated paths, etc. Okay, I wrote that here under Snowflake just for comparison.

As you know, Snowflake stock has seen slight pressure on short positions. I don't like that arrow very much.