Tesla stock is likely to fall after the September 3rd Cyber Cab launch event, with 69.420% confidence, though it might run up to the event.

Tesla has announced the Cyber Cab launch event will be September 3rd.

My prediction is that Tesla stock will fall after September 3rd. might run up to September 3rd. But my experience with events like this for Tesla is when they have this big kind of event, the stock usually falls the next day, people's hopes and expectations get up too high and then the event actually happens and it's not that big of a deal.

Maybe this will be different. Maybe there'll be some positive macro news or something that'll boost the stock and maybe I'm just wrong. So with 69% confidence, 69.420% 420% confidence.

I think the stock is likely to fall on September 4th.

I don't think V15 is going to drop soon for people who own Tesla cars. I think that uh V15 is already in robo taxis and they're already improving V15 and robo taxis.

I'm going to talk at the very end. I'm going to have some other positive news about Tesla, but I wanted to and then just one other thing. How long after Cyber Cab launches September 3rd will Tesla have 100 cyber cabs active in the robo taxi fleet?

I think the the winning result so far and this is you know a lot of time left but probably will be the winner is by the end of the year that we will see 100 cyber cabs.

you know my view is that Tesla robo taxi does not meaningfully impact the stock as in move it from where it is now in the 300s over let's say 500. I don't think we see a meaningful change in the stock until we have 10,000 robo taxis operating.

I'm going to talk at the end about when I think that might happen. And I just did a just I just did a video about this about two things that Tesla revealed recently that in the Q2 call that people missed.

I'm going to cover at the end of the video the two things that I mentioned in that video and why they're I think generally positive things that we should be excited about.

Drew Bagino did a podcast. Drew Beglo, the former uh leader of Tesla, one of the top guys at Tesla behind Mega Pac and um a lot of vehicle stuff, you know, one of the great one of the great leaders of Tesla.

he talks about you know working at Tesla he talks about his startup heron power the great v great thing

I own AI stocks. I own Nvidia. I own Google. I own Tesla. I own SpaceX.

Elon should come out and say he agrees that responsible data centers means it's important to go to space and protect the environment. Elon isn't saying a word about this. He's keeping quiet. It's probably for a reason.

Tesla is building Cortex data center right now. Tes Tesla is building the Cortex data center right now and at Giga Texas. They're building Cortex 2. Is he halting Cortex 2?

In Q1 of 2026, Tesla referred to Cortex in terms of H100 equivalents. They changed how they reported to megawws in Q2. So the chips they adopted probably the the the rise that you see here in the solid blue line is Blackwell.

And then this is probably going to be a Vera Rubin and and the performance of the chips is greater.

There's this question about how fast is robo taxi improving and ashoke said in the Q2 call doubledigit growth every week and I don't think he said you know double digit could be 10% it could be 99% it could be anywhere in between

yes that is an AOC quote um so the thing is that there are people who were saying oh it's 10% and that you can't get to cumulative if you start with let's say a thousand miles in the first week the first week of of robo taxi was January 22nd that that January is it started January 22nd which is the fourth week of the year so you go out about 25 weeks uh to get to the the Q2 earnings call on July 23rd um maybe 26 weeks whatever and if you only grow at 10% you don't get to 380 cumulative miles that Ashoke said they were at you get to 121,000 if you if you go to 15% you still don't quite reach 380,000 it's probably somewhere between 15 and 20% and it could you know maybe there was only 500 miles the first week we don't know so if it was 500 miles the first week 20% cumulative growth would be accurate and then my threshold has been 10,000 robo taxis active robo taxis but another threshold might be 10 million miles a week

10 million miles a week is 500 million miles a year. At a dollar a mile, that's $500 million a year in revenue. That's enough to get a line in the financial statements and drive things.

And if it's 20%, you're probably talking about the beginning of January. And it might be it might even be December where you hit if it hits in December, you may see this reported on the Q1 financial statements.

So there's a big question about when we're going to see robo taxi really scale. if we're conti and and Ashoke said we're going to see that high double digit growth rate or he didn't say high double digit but that high growth rate you know continue through the end of the year.

So if the same growth rate, if the growth rate is 20%, it continues to the end of the year around the end of this year or the beginning of next year, you see the 10 million miles a week?

Um, will robo taxi deployment outpace the coming resistance? Oh, I think that if if the resistance continues like this, robo taxi will be killed. They will change the laws. They will they will stop robo taxis. Oh, it's destroying jobs.

I I think everything is at I'm very very concerned about this. I think every and by the way if it's 15% then it's April of 2027 and I think it's March if you're doing start from 500 and if it's 10% it takes until December of 2027.

So huge difference from January to December of when Roboaxi hits the 10 million mile mark. I think it's probably going to be December or January that you hit the 10 million mile mark and you start to see it. Maybe in the Q1, the Q4 financial

That's assuming we don't have uh uh the Democrats win a landslide in the election in the fall and they start destroying all the tech and you know Trump gets on board with them and starts working with the Democrats and starts destroying all the tech stuff.

Um you know China wins China whe you know whether you think it's you know I would rather have China win than have AOC in control of AI.

So will robo taxi deployment that's why it's seriously unfortunate about the big delay. Um, I don't think it matters. I think I think if you had robo taxi running and you had a million customers, they would still shut it down. They do not care.

They don't care. They don't care if it saves lives. They don't care if it makes life better for people. They don't want it to make life better for people. They want to make life worse.

They want to destroy They can't destroy Western civilization if technology is making Western civilization better. They only destroy western civilization if they can persuade people that western civilization is making things worse. Um that that's what's happening.

So, um, all right. I don't see anything else in the chat. Future famous quote from a future president. Elon and Musk is the dumbest billionaire I've ever seen or met. You kind of wonder how many billionaires she's met.

How many billionaires has ALC met? I I think we are headed towards we are there's a serious risk in America. Now, I'm I'm in Thailand. I may I probably if I the next place I would live is Japan.

We may if my wife gets a green card. We have heard nothing from the US embassy about our green card application and we didn't expect to. It's it's many it's more than a year before you're supposed to hear.

But um if my wife gets a green card then we would be living in the United States in a substantial amount of time. But you if it's up to me we'll probably live in Japan rather than live in America.

Um and you know you guys are stuck in America most of you. So I'm very concerned for the future of America. Um I you know are they going to allow robots you know oh robots are going to take people's jobs we can't allow robots like where does this go?

I think that this is the greatest threat like the I've always said the greatest threat to Tesla stock to you know our investments to our the future of humanity the greatest threat is always government and we are seeing it right now the greatest threat um to AI stocks to our future of you know extending life into space you know extending human consciousness into space the greatest threat very clearly as government and right now it's the Democrats and Republicans both.

RW Hirsh says, "I was I wax nostalgic about imagining selling 20 million Teslas a year. Now it's also complicated." It's not complicated. If Tesla is allowed to grow robo taxi normally, we don't sell 20 million Teslas a year, but they might build 20 million Teslas a year and put them in the robo taxi fleet.

It's not really about 20 million Teslas a year. It's about, you know, how many how many rides, how many robo taxis are operating. If you have 10 million robo taxis operating, you're generating $500 billion a year in gross profit or $400 It's not complicated.

If Tesla is allowed to grow robo taxi normally, we don't sell 20 million Teslas a year, but they might build 20 million Teslas a year and put them in the robo taxi fleet.

It's not really about 20 million Teslas a year. It's about, you know, how many how many rides, how many robo taxis are operating. If you have 10 million robo taxis operating, you're generating $500 billion a year in gross profit or $400 billion a year in gross profit.

maybe the robo taxis survive the wave. This is one of those things I've said before. Tesla might be the most safe investment in the AI world. This is one of those things I've said before.

Tesla might be the most safe investment in the AI world.

maybe Palanteer also because if you stop the growth of AI data centers, it doesn't stop the improvement of robo taxis. It might interfere with Optimus, but it doesn't really stop the improvement of it might slow the improvement of robo taxi a little, but if robo taxi is already ready to go or close, then you just need to make the cars and sell them.

And Tesla has a clear lead in that.

Do I think we will have any Optimus announcements this year? My best guess is no. I don't think I think that they are. Well, we know they are building the factory line in Fremont and we think they've made a lot of progress on the factory line in Fremont.

We know that they are building the factory in Texas, the larger factory in Texas, but I don't I don't think, you know, I don't think we're going to see anything. I I don't think they they don't want to do demos of Optimus because others will see what they do and copy it.

So, they don't want to reveal the Optimus secrets, for lack of a better term, until they're close to going close to going to scale.

Uh, I did not see the Friday's bump in Tesla's stock price. It's probably related to Cyber Cab, but it could just be, you know, markets are good or, you know, I don't I don't have explanations for short-term stock price movements.

My only explanation is after a Tesla event like Cyber Cab, you know, the Cyber Cab event that's coming up, when they have an event like this, whether it's battery day or AI day or AI day 2 or, you know, Roadster semi- day, whatever it is, whenever they have events like this, um, my general sense is about 69.420% of the time the stock falls the next day.

How do you imagine that edge device looking I imagine the edge device looking a lot like a phone, but it's not a phone. You were starting to invest today. What would your split be between Tesla and SpaceX?

If I was starting to invest today, well, right now, just to be clear, my my split is large majority Tesla, then Nvidia, then SpaceX, then Google. Um, I don't today sell my Tesla to buy SpaceX because there's a lot of rumors about a merger and if there's a merger, there's a lot of rumors about a premium.

So, why would you sell Tesla without a premium and buy sell Tesla and buy SpaceX without a premium? Um, I don't really have a good answer to that question. It would probably be about 50/50 between Tesla and SpaceX if I was buying today.

Is it possible that Tesla gets beaten down by politics? We end up begging SpaceX to buy us. I think SpaceX is more at risk from politics than Tesla. I I think the current politics against data centers is a much bigger shot at SpaceX than it is against Tesla.

Wishing cyber cabs would be released in multiple locations on the third. I I would not be surprised if they are if they actually have no cyber cabs going into the fleet on on September 3rd.

I would not be surprised if zero actually go in the fleet on September 3rd. You could have a launch event and not have any vehicles going in.