TSLA leads in US EV scale and robotics, but Chinese sales mix is shifting due to aging models; current price action reflects event-driven optimism rather than fundamental change in China exposure.

looking at some of these EV companies this morning. BYD, Tesla, Xpong, and NEO.

It was sort of initially sold, I guess, the marketplace is sort of the Chinese counterpart to Tesla because it was a little bit nicer vehicle at the time.

Well, then speaking of, you know, maybe a company that isn't as exposed to China as maybe people thought they might be, you know, 10 years ago, Tesla, it's kind of the the the scale winner here in the US.

It's also a robotics and automation type of leader as well. It's one of the only that's kind of blended all of those. Where does Tesla fit into this discussion?

they let's say start and end in my opinion with the China market because number one from production standpoint it ships about half of their vehicles globally so around 800 some thousand units were produced in China in Shanghai Giga and exported to markets like Japan to the EU to the UK to Australia okay so we talk about production and then we talk about uh sales around 600 around 33% of sales for Tesla in 2025 came from the China market.

Now there's they're they're producing still between 60 and 80,000 units a month from Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory, but the mix of domestic sales to to exports is now changing and they're exporting more vehicles because the three and the Y are getting a little bit long in the tooth in the China market.

Tesla didn't get the memo. Today is a red day, Tom. It's up 4%. Yeah, and I'm sitting there wondering, shaking my head, looking out for some news about why Tesla's higher. I think it's on the back of, you know, what everybody likes Tesla for and why the Ford PE is so high is based on that robotics, right?

The robo taxi that's uh supposedly coming out. They're going to have a launch for that. Also, um you know, the semi in late September. There's going to have an event for that. So maybe that is probably the reason that we're starting to see uh a little bit more optimism.

The stock has rallied, Alex, over the last month about 22%. It would hit about 297 bucks a share at the end of July. We're now above 20 or $360. So, I looked at a strategy that maybe we get into some resistance here.

The stock's hitting right at that 50-day simple moving average. So, I looked at a neutral to bearish trade that still gives me a cushion to the upside uh here. Went up to the September monthly option.

So, 18 days expiration. Got two and a half weeks in this position. We're going to sell an out of the money uh short call vertical. Sell the 375 call and then buy the 385 strike call.

So, a short $10 wide neutral to bearish call vertical. You're collecting roughly I got $2.60 credit. I believe it's trading over three bucks right now. But the credit you collect is what you can profit on this.

So, $260 with about $740 in risk on this position. So, you've got more risk than reward, but you've got over three and a half% cushion to the upside to get to that break even. uh which sits at $37760.

Probability of finishing out of the money on that short 375 strike call Alex is about 62%. So you've got that higher probability of success. You can still take a directional bias on a on a trade like uh Tesla, but you can be passive, a little bit more conservative.

That gives you a little bit more room to the upside before you start getting hurt on this type of trade.