Cybercab launch is a substantial improvement; financial impact expected by Q1 2027.

Cyber Cab is launching in two or three days. It's 2 days from now. September 3rd is 2 days from now in Thailand, but maybe it's 3 days from you where you are. Um, they are already running robo taxis from 6:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m. 7 days a week in six cities. This is a pretty substantial improvement.

I'm not sure where they are on the double digit percentage a week increase in mileage miles driven, but you know, we're see which is what um I think a shoke reported and people thought it was 10%.

I did a video already about this. I think it might be closer to 20% increase per week. So, if it's 20% per week, you get to 10,000 well two million miles a week or you get to enough miles that it starts showing up in the financials probably Q2 of 2027 and maybe Q1 of 2027.

I mean, sorry, maybe Q4 of 2026, more likely Q1 of 2027 that you see it in the financials and that's when it really has an impact on the stock.

Now, my theory is they're not going to sell Cyber Cab to customers, at least not in significant volume, and I'll explain that in a minute. So he said, "If people pay $18,000 upfront, they pay interest.

They pay operational costs. Compare that to selling the car for 25K. Tesla makes $7,000 in profit right away. They can pay back all the suppliers. No financing cost. And Tesla still gets 30 to 50% of rid share revenue off the top with near zero operational expense."

Yeah. Okay. But this misunderstands if Tesla were to own every cyber cab what the profit story is.

Let's suppose it cost Tesla, if you go with this number, they uh $18,000 up front. So, it cost Tesla $18,000 to make a cyber cab for themselves and then they run it. If they're going to make a dollar a mile for 60,000 miles a year, I think they end up making more that in the short run, about that in the medium-term, and less in the long run.

But in the short to medium term, they're making a dollar a mile or more in revenue. probably 60,000 paid miles a year, which is $60,000 in revenue minus, call it $20,000 in cost, and you got $40,000 in profit, gross profit a year on an $18,000 capex.

In other words, you make your capex back in less than 6 months. And then for the next 9 and a half years, you're making $40,000 a year, $30,000 a year, $50,000 a year on that vehicle.

So, the profit story from Tesla owning the car is much greater.

The operational costs are there. Yes. And that's included in my $20,000 costs. But Tesla's going to be more efficient on the operational side than you will be than you know Joe.

The average car owner who buys a cyber cab is not necessarily going to be as efficient at it.

In one of the earnings calls, I think I think it was Vibe, it might have been a joke, but I think it was Vibe. There was a question about whether they were going to let customers put their vehicles in the robo taxi fleet.

And he kind of dodged it. He said, "Well, you know, we haven't figured out yet how we're going to make sure the vehicles are in proper working condition, right? That to make sure that the cars are in good condition.

They don't want you to send your beat up old 2018 Model 3. I own a 2018 Model 3." They don't want you, you know, the c they want the customer to have a relatively uniform experience.

So, if they'd get, if your rusty 20,00 I don't know if they get rusty, but if your rusty 2018 Model 3 shows up and it's not in great condition, they don't the customer doesn't have the same experience as if they get to ride in a brand new Cyber Cab or Model Y that's in great condition that Tesla is maintaining to a higher standard.

That's one of the concerns that I think it was Vibe raved raised and the challenge for Tesla making sure that you're taking good care of your car and your car is proper for the network. That's not so easy.

So even with letting you put your Model Y in the fleet. So then the question is, are they selling you a cyber cab and you can't put it in the fleet? Well, how many are they going to sell?

Nobody buys two passenger cars. The only two passenger cars people buy are sports cars. Corvette, Mazda, Miata, Porsche, you know, name a two passenger car that's not a sports car that people buy in any volume and you just can't find it. So, I I just don't think that's realistic.

Um, but the napkin math is very very powerful. If Tesla's getting 30 to 50% of the ride share revenue for 10 years, they're making a hell of a lot less money than if they're getting a 100% of the ride share revenue. That's the huge deal.

So, uh, I I don't know if people follow this story. Um, but you know, Cyber Cab is coming. The launch is September 3rd. I've seen reports that they're registering them in their robo taxi fleets in, let's say, Austin.

Uh, Elon made some comment in reply to somebody that they're going to be launching at real scale in Austin, Texas. I think they're going to be in those six cities and they may go broader, faster.

We'll see how it goes. is supposed to be slowly at first and all at once is all at once coming. I don't know. I mean, that's that doesn't fit with a choke's 20% per week increase.

That wasn't an all at once. So, you have to balance that.

Um Mark's first Mark's use for cyber cable will be below the first mile basic costs. [snorts] Um I think that we have to understand that there are people there's different use cases.

So, people who are riding Uber right now and paying $2 $2.50 50 cents a mile are going to be happy to ride in a cyber cab, not have to worry about a smelly driver who doesn't speak English and wants a tip, right?

You ride in a robo taxi, there's no tip. And um it probably undercuts Uber on price. So you basically take all the Uber riders, you take all the taxi riders in whatever market you operate in. That happens fairly quickly.

You have to you you can't lower the price too fast because you need to have enough cars to meet the demand. If you lower the price too fast, then um then people have to wait too long for a ride.

So you have to balance your ride price with demand and the supply that you have.

And then you know you as you expand across at least the southern United States, I don't know whether you know the nor you know the places like New York and Massachusetts and Michigan and Illinois might resist robo taxi, but you're going to see it in at least 30% of the US population, probably 50% of the US.

I think between California, Texas, and Florida, you've got roughly 30% of the US population. So, you probably get at least 50% of the US population has access to robo taxi, and you probably need more than 10 million robo taxis for that population to drive the price down below a dollar a mile.

Um, and at any point at a certain point as you bring the price down then highric drivers, people have bad credit, people have DWIs on their record, people have bad driving records otherwise, they're paying more to drive.

They're paying more to get their loans. They're paying more for car insurance. So, those people and then people who are, let's say, older, they only drive 5,000 miles a year. It's a hassle to take care of your car.

All of a sudden, they've got an easy way of getting around and they don't have to worry about maintaining a car. So, you start peeling off people as you hit the $150 a mile. You hit the$120 a mile. You get to a dollar mile.

You also have like the teenage driver. Like the kid turns 15 or 16. Do you get him a driver's license? and it's going to cost you as a parent 2500 bucks a year extra for car insurance and they're going to drive 500 miles.

So that's five that's that's $5 a mile, right? Not counting the other cost of the vehicle. So, you know, the kid can ride around for a $150 a mile. You want you'd rather them get robo taxi than get a driver's license. It's that simple.

Um people are already doing that with Uber and it's going to get more extreme with robo taxi. And then you get down the thing is the the average American vehicle owner spends about 70 cents a mile on their car.

So as you approach 70 cents a mile, the volume of people who want to ride robo taxi, you know, decide, I don't want to bother having a car anymore.

Yeah. No, Tesla will self-insure and they'll have a claims operation. They already have Tesla insurance. So, they figured out how to handle car claims and then every accident will be recorded.

So, the the fraudsters who stage accidents will be caught because every accident with a Tesla is recorded. Um, so they they have a much and they they don't cause accidents.

Surprised they've registered 45 vehicles so far. If they roll out close to 50 cars in Austin, that'll be way above my expectations. I think they're going to roll out cyber cabs in Austin, Miami, what was the hang on, six cities.

I think they're going to roll out cyber cabs in Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Orlando, and Tampa. And they posted this, you know, right after the announcement. So, they're probably going to roll them out in those six cities.

And then they're going to expand other cities. Las Vegas is coming soon. I think there's a few other sun cities that are happening soon. I think by the end of the year, you know, we're in September now.

By the end of the year, we'll probably be in 10 12 cities.

none of this is going to matter if my Tesla, SpaceX, Google, and Nvidia stock go up, right? You know that if if they stay if they stay even, it doesn't really matter. But if they go up, it all gets crazy.

we don't have Optimus yet. But, you know, Gemini had me convinced I could build the podcast prototype myself. Maybe that's next year. You know, once we get Optimus, you know, maybe I buy an Optimus bot or two and I have them build prototypes for me for my my podcast.

Tesla minus [clears throat] 10, Nvidia minus 5, SpaceX flight.

Is there a market for Tesla building out their own solar farms and energy storage and just selling to the grid? No. I mean, there is a market for it, but that's not what they're going to do with it.

They're going to build out their own solar farms to power their own stuff. But the primary purpose of Tesla and SpaceX building solar panels is to put them in space. Their their their intent for these solar panels is to go into space to power AI satellites.

Okay, so the the key point here is that SpaceX and Tesla are building 100 gawatts a year of solar production capacity, and that is for going into space. I'm not saying they won't use some of it on the ground, but the intent of those solar panels is to go into space on AI satellites.

So, when we talk about Tesla, you know, Tesla have good news and the stock doesn't go up.