Tesla has significant long-term upside driven by large TAMs in autonomous vehicles and robotics, supporting a bullish thesis for substantial stock appreciation.
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So, if you have a high beta asset like Tesla and the stock market falls 5%, Tesla will fall 10%.
Tesla and SpaceX are expecting significant growth. I love the thought of 20 ways to $8,000 Tesla, but I have difficulty understanding how this would be possible. Tesla at 8,000 would bring in to a market cap of 31.6 6 trillion while the entire current world GB GDP is 126.3 trillion.
But what would that mean for Tesla is if it's 25% of the world's GDP and with these assets there must be multiple compressions of some kind. How do you think plan about this eventuality as well?
Number one, I made a video, eight ways to $8,000 for the Tesla price in the year 2032. I made that video nearly 4 years ago. So, it's a long time ago, but it really sticks in people's minds, and I'm not backing away from that.
Also, I made it before all of the goodness that has actually happened now. Now we got things like megapods and inference and cars and all the stuff that was is now part lithium factories stuff that was not part or a 10 million Optimus factory that's being built right now in Austin, Texas.
I wasn't aware of any of that 4 years ago. That's all new. That's why it's gone from eight ways to 20 ways. So it's even easier now.
Okay, first of all, if a company has 3.95 billion shares, which it will have in the future, stock price 8,000 takes us to 31.6 trillion. Yes, correct. You have that right.
CyberCab is a and robot taxi is a $10 trillion opportunity globally. You got Tesla now bringing a whole bunch of cyber cabs to Japan. Japan actually want autonomous cyber cabs in four major cities because I've also covered this in the past before.
Then we have Optimus 30 trillion. And per what he said of the G20, it's even a lot more. Okay. If Optimus, human optimist could 10x global GDP, we're talking way more than a $30 trillion opportunity.
Just these two combined is 40 trillion. If you assume conservatively Tesla, okay, does 25% of that market globally. Cyber caps I think it'll be a lot higher more like 50 to 60%.
But that results in 10 trillion in revenue and from there we can calculate some profits. Okay, 40 trillion opportunity, 25% Tesla capture, 10 trillion in revenue, 25% net margin.
And remember, a lot of these things that they do are extremely high margin businesses, which means 2.5 trillion in earnings times a PE of 13, which is incredibly low. Incredibly low, is a $32 trillion market cap, and we back into our $8,000 a share. Real simple.
And I'll stress this again. I made that 8,000, eight ways to 8,000 nearly four years ago before most of this even existed. Okay? So, that's how you back into these numbers. And I know they sound crazy uh but and things may take a little bit longer than 2032 but either way the speed at which things are changing in the world is astronomical.
And then you got names like Tesla and Palanteer. And yeah, they're still priced high compared to Nvidia and others, but they're going after way bigger total addressable markets. Way, way, way bigger.
Curious what percentage of your total portfolio you'd ideally be allocated to Tesla and SpaceX? I know you're very high conviction on both. If they eventually merge, would that make you concerned about being too concentrated in one ecosystem or are you comfortable with a very large Musk Industries allocation?
In fact, they're so big when you add them all up, the total TAMs that I have calculated in painstaking detail is $75.8 trillion for Tesla and $28.5 trillion for SpaceX.
and Tesla it's just cyber cabs energy storage humanoid optimus all massive massive TAMs
If you have, say, a lot of Tesla, imagine you're 40% Tesla, you know, and you want to add in some SpaceX. You don't have any. it's a brand new company then try get to 7% or 5% or whatever is your risk tolerance find the right balance
There will be a big premium on Tesla when they get acquired or merged.
Are they selling their Tesla? No. Are they stacking? Yes.
I'm really interested in eventually having one or two Tesla robo taxis as a small family business opportunity for my grandkids. When do you think Tesla will allow individual retail owners to add their vehicles to the robo taxi fleet and earn income from them?
And do you think Tesla will eventually sell the Cyber Cab to retail customers? And if regular privately owned Teslas are added to the robo taxi fleet, do you think kids under 18 could ride in those, too?
First of all, the timeline for owning the Cyber Cab. This from Dylan Lumis way back in Feb. And Elon said uh he said, "Will we be able to buy a Cyber Cab for $30,000 or less before 2027, which means over the next 4 months?"
So, it's basically told people, yes, you'll be able to buy your own cyber cab and maybe I know people who want to use it for their grandma or whatever, you know, so people can have freedom and autonomy and not have to worry about them driving or they can kick it into the fleet. That will be happening before year end.
But yes, cyber cabs, if they're selling them, you will be able to spin them into a fleet as long as the regulations locally allow that. Tesla Yoda as well said you'll be able to sell Cyber Caps to individuals for 30K and roll into the Robbo taxi network.
Now the other thing as well that owner operator gate 2 to be aware of if Tesla wants to dominate their own market and they built out all their infrastructure like Austin Texas that might be a very hard market to penetrate.
And the Tesla rules, however, are a little bit stiffer. You did ask. These are the rules so far. Uh Model Y robo taxi, no kids under the age of eight and ages 8 to 17 need an adult with them.
And cyber cabab, no one under 13 and 13 to 17 year olds need an adult with them as well.
These rules can change. We don't know exactly what they'll look like in in a while, but I think initially safety first, which is the mantra for Tesla.
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