Tesla maintains an insurmountable lead in self-driving vehicle costs and capabilities; competitors cannot match it.

Don't be surprised if Tesla, Amazon, or Google buy Uber for $300 billion to win the race to deploy self-driving vehicles. Now, putting aside Amazon and Google for a moment, if Tesla were to buy Uber, I would retire from content creation.

This is my level of confidence that this will not happen.

There is a 0.0% chance that Tesla will buy Uber for $300 billion , or even for a pack of gum and some candy . He then tells us not to be surprised if Tesla, Amazon, or Google buy Uber for around $300 billion, which, to remind you, is double its current market value , in order to win the rollout of self-driving vehicles.

Some then specifically mention Lucid, Rivian, Volkswagen , and a self-driving vehicle company, Varda , Euro, to compete against Tesla and Waymo.

Is Tesla buying Waymo ? Absolutely impossible. That will not be enough to compete sustainably with Tesla's revenues over time. before they inevitably realize that it's pointless to try, that they can't keep up with Tesla's costs, so what do we do?

What are the chances that this huge new entity will miraculously be able to match Tesla's ability to produce self-driving electric vehicles at a reasonable cost and in large quantities ?

By the way, the answer to this question is that there is no chance of that happening.

In case you didn't realize it or forgot, the list of companies that today produce electric vehicles profitably and in large quantities contains only one name, and that is Tesla.

As for Volkswagen, despite being the largest or second largest car manufacturer in terms of sales volume, it cannot manufacture electric vehicles that it can sell to consumers at a profit, and suffers a crushing defeat at the hands of Tesla.

The question I want to ask everyone is: Do you think this new giant entity will really be able to compete with Tesla? Returning to Sawyer's post about the 0% chance of Tesla buying Uber, Jason responded by saying: "Major mergers and acquisitions are coming to this industry."

Amazon, Google , Waymo, and Tesla could buy these assets for 1 to 15% of their market value, and any of these deals would put them directly in first place in...what ? In the field of self-driving?

Tesla plus Uber equals player number one. Now, I'll step in here just to say that Tesla plus time equals player number one.

I see no other way to catch up with Tesla than the ability to magically press multiple magic buttons. I don't see any way for any company to come close to matching the cost of Tesla's hardware, and by that I mean the amount of money Tesla spends, and the capital required to put a single self-driving vehicle on the roads as widely as the CyberCab, whose production cost would easily be less than $20,000.

I don't see any way any company, ever, will be able to put a similar self-driving vehicle on the roads at a cost that even comes close to Tesla's low cost. Do you know that the only company on the planet today that produces profitable electric vehicles is Tesla?"

So please explain to me how Tesla, which has just reinvented the car manufacturing system to drastically reduce the cost of producing a vehicle —and that vehicle is the CyberCab, by the way—can make this vehicle itself, being a dedicated robotic taxi, free from much of the unnecessary costs, mass, and complexity found in human-driven vehicles."

It has two seats, less material, less mass, and everything is less, which means that the cost of its materials will be much lower. Its production cost will be much lower .

This is the only company today that produces electric vehicles profitably on a large scale. I have yet to hear a single logical argument as to how any company, whether part of a giant merger or not, could even come close to matching the cost of Tesla's CyberCab hardware.

Jason is a very smart man, so he is certainly not naive enough to think that they will be able to match the cost of Tesla devices; he is not completely stupid. Therefore , this new entity will not be able to compete with Tesla in terms of cost, or if it does , it will offer a much inferior service .

Therefore, they will not benefit from huge profit margins on their services. They will have to compete with Tesla on cost per mile, but they will not have attractive profit margins, so they will lose money or barely make any profit.

Also, Tesla is the only company that possesses the enormous amount of data required to solve the general self-driving dilemma.

No one can compete with the cost of Tesla devices, and I'm sure Jason knows that too. as Tesla moves forward.

I think that even if some kind of mega-merger were to take place between a group of different companies— Uber, DoorDash, Rivian, Lucid, Volkswagen , and some emerging self-driving car companies— they would not be able, without access to several “ magic buttons,” to match Tesla’s cost, size, and overall autonomous driving capabilities.

That is, if they can somehow own a business that they can run without losing money on every trip offered to customers while trying to compete with Tesla on cost, which I find highly unlikely in the long run.

But even if this scenario comes to pass and the company remains able to meet its financial obligations a decade later, Uber already has a platform , and it is collaborating with more than a dozen other companies, all of which provide self-driving vehicles and are trying to compete with Tesla on cost.

Tesla's work would look like a jewel studded with gold, while the other thing Jason is proposing would look like a piece of filth with some embellishments on it. My new model for evaluating Tesla and SpaceX over 20 years is now also available on Patreon for backers in the investor category and above.