Tesla's robotaxi strategy offers high margins via fleet sales and tax advantages; however, the stock is currently expensive (PEG ~5).

I think Tesla is about to completely destroy Uber.

I think the reason for this is that Tesla, in my opinion, is about to take over Uber. And something that happened this year with Uber and Waymo makes me really think that Tesla is about to achieve something.

No, it's not about charging for robotaxi rides. Rather, it's about making money from something else related to "CyberCap". Well, look, Tesla's stock is down about 19% since the beginning of the year. He was extremely unpredictable.

And you know, I'm not here to say that this arrow will go straight to the moon. And you know, it won't be resilient if the AI bubble bursts and we enter a deep, dark recession. It's clear you're going to have problems.

But I think there is something that people don't take into account regarding Tesla, which should be part of its evaluation. To understand this component, the type of change, and how this relates to what Tesla has already proven in the past, you need to know my original thesis on robotics.

At first I thought, I don't know, man, it seems more logical that Waymo would only be available within the Uber app, and you would just press to select "I want Waymo". I want self-driving, then a Waymo or Tesla's Robo-Taxi appears.

Waymo has proven my hypothesis wrong. This really matters when it comes to Tesla, because it means that Tesla’s self-driving taxi app can also operate in this way or with this competitiveness, which is very positive in my opinion for Tesla.

My point is that all of this points to Tesla. Tesla can get all of these advantages plus one more thing. Fleet operations. Now, Tesla could expand on that, but why? That will be the part with the lowest profit margin in this business.

Why would you want that? Instead of literally selling vehicles to fleet operators and binding them to a contract.

This business has actually become a potentially huge profit margin product for Tesla. Tesla has proven in the past that we can achieve a gross profit margin of up to 30% on these vehicles thanks to tax advantages.

I believe that with the fact that people can consume these assets in large quantities and in advance. In other words, let me give you an example, okay? Let's say you're a dentist and you have a very large business facility; you own the entire shopping mall, okay?

And you are the primary tenant of yourself. The dentist is not a prime tenant, but you know what I mean. Whatever it is, okay? I invested wisely and achieved success. You have a big year ahead.

You will have an income of one million dollars because you are doing a great job at your dental clinic. amazing. Okay, we want to deduct a portion of this. Well, why don't we buy a lot of equipment as part of our business?

And I'm no tax expert, okay? Now suppose I say: "I have a $1 million operating income from the dental clinic, and the other part of my business will be renting Tesla cars."

I will buy $1 million worth of CyberCab cars, and I expect there will be an FSD subscription included, so this will be without full self-driving. You have to add inflation to the car's price of $25,000, okay?

Everyone wants a car that costs $25,000, but let's be realistic, we need to add about 30% for inflation to that amount. And frankly, this is still considered—fairly speaking—the $25,000 car that Elon promised.

I know I don't want this to sound like a justification or self-consolation. I just think that makes sense. So, the price becomes $32,500. Divide it by 32,500. Enter the market and buy 30 self-driving taxis.

Boom. I immediately deducted an amount that I would have had to pay 500,000 in taxes on. I just paid zero in taxes. Then you finance these Tesla cars as well, and get additional tax benefits if you want, or pay half the amount upfront, as you like.

Tesla earns interest from the returns on financing. Tesla gets the advantage of pricing power because you give people a huge tax credit. Tesla gets the advantage of not having to deal with cleaning and charging.

Tesla gets the advantage of selling the damned car upfront. And collecting a huge profit margin upfront, and wow, what is Tesla good at? Mass manufacturing in an innovative way to reduce costs. This is what CyberTrack stands for.

Stop valuing this company based on how much money it might make operating and running a low-margin mileage business that will become a mainstream commodity. Oh, what if they could earn one dollar for every mile?

They won't earn a single dollar per mile. They will print money by taking advantage of tax benefits that give them pricing power on vehicles, allowing them to sell cars perhaps at a higher price.

They might sell it for 40,000, then take 30, 40, 35% as total profits. Who cares? In addition to a 99% profit margin on full self-driving taxi subscriptions. This is where the real money lies. They are the only ones so far who have this.

I may be missing something, but Tesla is so incredibly advanced, it's unbelievable. That is why they target fleets. That's why they have a fleet registration system. For this reason, the plug is a DC plug.

After that, Tesla can take those profits and reinvest them in Optimus robots. I believe this is the true thesis of this company.

Now, based on current estimates, the company looks very expensive. If we look at Tesla’s current PEG ratio, it is unfortunately high, and I am not here to tell you that it is at its lowest or very cheap at the moment.

Currently, based on its projected earnings, the stock is trading at a PEG ratio of approximately five.

But the point is that there is a lot of optimism about Tesla in areas such as per-mile charging, the "Optimus" robot, or whatever else. I don't know when my thesis will be realized, or how quickly they will reach the manufacturing stage.

Currently, we have approximately 125,000 vehicles that we can produce in relation to the "Cyber Truck". With the "Unboxed" strategy, we don't yet know what the profit margins for this will be.

But I wouldn't be surprised if it was by...I don't know, maybe by the end of the decade, okay? Perhaps by the end of the decade, we will see a boom in sales of taxi robots.

Now, instead of worrying about revenue per mile of robot taxis, you actually agree with my digital and say, "Kevin, it comes down to manufacturing the vehicles, and how many vehicles we can sell."

Except that instead of running it with an 18% profit margin, we will raise the margin for the entire fleet to 30%, because we will assume that we can sell these vehicles to companies that can write them off with a 35% margin, and calculate the average with the rest of the business, which is currently 18%, perhaps rising to 22% or so.

Thus, we can now manipulate these price targets.

Therefore, we currently have price targets for the end of 2030, i.e., targets for 4 years. Honestly, it's now about 3 and a half years. The price target for 3.5 years is $605. This includes revenue from Tesla's robot.

This might be overly optimistic. Do you know what? Let me delete the Tesla robot from here, okay? Because I will simply be reserved. We'll add it again in a moment. We will set Tesla's robot contribution to zero.

Ah, and the semi-trailer truck operation entered at 3.5. Do you know what? Let's be strict. Let's set that to zero as well. Okay, we'll be back later. We will add those values again

Well, that's still double the number of vehicles we sell right now. But now what we will do is take the revenue from full autonomous driving (FSD). Where did we get them from? Sales, leases, services, energy, operating income from FSD subscriptions.

We're going to add another billion dollars to FSD subscriptions here because you're going to charge fleet operators higher fees because they can write them off for tax purposes.

Remember, companies charge other companies higher fees, okay? It's that simple.

Operating income, I will now change this in sales to 30% as a mixed percentage. And I just want you to see how this changes, okay? Just add a billion to FSD with a very high profit margin to boost the largest line at the top to 30%.

Keep in mind, I literally set the Optimus and the semi- trailer truck to zero on purpose. I hadn't even considered this beforehand. I just have a feeling it's going to be huge because this top line is the engine of this business.

Oh, 775. My God. Look, this type of rate of return is what I like. Now, what does that require? This requires $11.48 in earnings per share. This represents 10 times what we have now.

Clearly, the markets do not expect, and analysts do not expect, Tesla to increase its earnings per share 10 times at the moment.

I'll tell you what the markets expect. It's not 10 times that. So, who knows? You know, maybe, just maybe, I'm knocking on the wrong door here. I don't think this stimulus should happen anytime soon.

There could be many other negative triggers. You know, people can get stressed before or after midterm elections. Or, perhaps the Federal Reserve will make a mistake and start raising interest rates too quickly.

I do n't know. Stupid things can happen. Tesla is sensitive to interest rates. So, if they raise prices, you know, it's going to be bad.

Oh, $1.66 is the current Wall Street estimate. We are at 34.7 plus 40.7 plus 63.4 plus 47.6, which is a growth of 186%. This is approximately 3 times that amount. Good. So, the average growth rate is about 46%.

In fact, by the end of 2030 it will reach about oh, that's what I did. It is actually closer to 4 and a half years because the end of 2030 is how I calculate this. So, it's actually more like 4.25.

Here we are. So, they have earnings per share of $7.58. I'm at $11.48. So, you know, I'm still a little higher . 11.48 divided by... Oh, what is this? 7.58. This means a 50% difference.

I'm probably ahead of schedule by only a year and a half. The timeline may actually be only a year and a half ahead . So, even if you're a year and a half early, who cares? If I had to adjust this to 5.75, it would still be a good return on my investment, 14.8%, wouldn't it?

So I think what they will actually do with self-driving taxis is take the money they make from selling those vehicles, the " Cyber Cabs," and reinvest it into the " Optimus" program. 18% to transition to compassion.

Now, the " Optimus" program, I believe, is a long-term project that extends from 2035 to 2040. Okay? If CyberCab's production reaches two million units or so by 2030, then you will have the capital and cash flow, my dear, to reinvest in Optimus.

And then, as you know, the problem of the small arm and the special motors for the arms will be solved. As you know, we will have found a solution to that by then . Anyway, that 's my opinion.

Honestly, between you and me , it might be a good thing if Tesla's stock dropped a little more so we could have a more attractive entry point here. But , even at its current price of $350, if we are correct about the "Cyber" strategy. There's something to this.