Bearish on TSLA; fundamentals are weak (negative FCF, lower margins) and long-term sustainable profits are unlikely due to competition, even though the stock price has risen.
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Tesla remains Tesla nothing to add on that one but we'll discuss that too.
Let's start immediately with the largest market capitalization car stock of them all, which is of course Tesla. Now, I have been a bear on Tesla for ages now, but the stock just keeps going up. Nothing can stop Elon Musk.
Apart from that finally a good quarter for Tesla growing but gross margin down which means prices are lower compared to the costs operating margin down ebitita down everything apart from sales is down and free cash flow turned negative so I was completely right on being negative on Tesla's fundamentals that has material realized.
So, I was right on that. I was wrong on the stock price, but you can never go short a cult. Now, we still have Model 3 and Y production that's going on, that's growing. And the most important thing, the cyber cap, the robot taxes are coming as that takes over the market.
Optimus also in construction always these promises. The same was there for automotive. Did it deliver long-term durable profits? No. Will this deliver long-term durable profits? No.
But as long Elon can keep the charade and the narrative of the promises mining on wherever with SpaceX, Tesla will beat everything else. Robbo taxes are coming and the market loves it. outlook more growth vertical integration in the Tesla ecosystem.
The P ratio is 339 crazy P ratio but it's on future promises on this ecosystem where we have robo taxes vehicles charging networks everything will be like Tesla wants it.
If the robo taxes actually work, there will mean less cars, which means return on the cars actually over the time will be zero. Same for robo taxes, but you never know with Tesla.
I'm still bearish. I was right on the fundamentals. It would surprise me if they ever make long-term sustainable profits because they are in highly competitive industries.
What this channel has said about $TSLA
Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D. has only this one call on this stock.