Tesla's Semi truck is an undervalued positive catalyst; reaching 50,000 annual units by 2030 could add ~10% to share value.

We need to talk about the Tesla Semi truck because Top Gear has given a great analysis of it, and we'll review some of the information in it to see what that might mean for Tesla's stock.

Just to remind you, the Tesla Semi truck was unveiled in late 2017. That was around the same time I got my black Model X. I loved it. My father still drives that black car of mine; it's fantastic.

But the truck was supposed to be released within a year and a half, sometime in 2019. What we really saw was one delay after another, due to supply chains, the efficiency of these vehicles, and the Covid pandemic.

So, a trial fleet was not actually delivered until 2022. That was in December 2022. That is, we are talking about 4 years ago when we got our first trial fleets. Those fleets were mostly destined for PepsiCo in Florida.

They just opened the high-density production line for these trucks on April 29, 2026. So, from concept stage to mass production line, it took 9 years.

The main achievement that Tesla is trying to accomplish is how we can enable drivers to complete their entire shift from start to finish, taking into account mandatory rest periods.

How can we get from the beginning of the shift to its end without needing to charge? Then how can we charge and get to 60% of the battery in a break of approximately 30 minutes , which is crazy, you know, that's Tesla Supercharge, and then continue charging during the break.

This is vital marketing for Tesla because you don't want big trucks to stop working at times when they wouldn't otherwise stop.

I think one of the key components I'm most excited about for Tesla as a company and for Tesla stock is that I don't think this has been adequately valued in Tesla stock yet.

I think there are a lot of hopes pinned on "Optimus" and "CyberCap". I was truly amazed by CyberCab and the taxi robots with this expansion we've seen in Austin. I think there was a lot of edge mapping involved in that.

So, my motivation for Tesla is to see how quickly we can map the edges of other areas, whether that be Dallas, Houston, Tampa, or elsewhere. This is what I'm watching for CyberTrack.

This has created a lot of excitement for Tesla. But the Tesla "Semi" truck has been somewhat forgotten because it was a long-awaited promise.

Tesla's long-range "Semi" truck is expected to sell for $290,000 and will feature an 822 kWh battery. This is equivalent to 10 times the battery you might find in a regular "Model Y" model, which has a battery capacity close to 75 kWh.

This is close to 20 times the battery size found in the "Cyber Track". Tesla's long-range "Semi" truck is huge in terms of battery size. The standard-range model is expected to sell for around $260,000, which frankly isn't a huge discount. 260/290 represents a discount of approximately 10%, but in return you will drop to 325 miles, which represents a 35% decrease in range.

Therefore , I don't think most people would choose this standard range model. I'm not entirely sure why they're offering the standard range model in the first place , because a 10% discount on a 325-mile range model, compared to the 500-mile range you can get on a $290,000 vehicle, doesn't seem like a better deal to me.

Because remember, if a Semi long- range truck costs $ 290,000 and a diesel truck costs between $165,000 and $200,000, and doesn't require a large charging station where you park your trucks, then you're probably looking at an additional investment in Tesla vehicles of between $100,000 and $200,000 .

This will of course increase costs the more you buy, but the point is that this will be important after a while. When they talk about the break-even point between the Tesla Semi and diesel trucks, it's because they know the Tesla Semi's initial cost will be higher.

This is an investment decision. It is not supposed to be an emotional decision. It is an investment decision to achieve a return on investment. If the break-even point is reached within 5 years, which they expect, it is likely to achieve an annual return rate of 15%, which is very good.

If you can reach the break-even point and start making profits after that, especially with diesel prices currently at record levels .

So, let's use some simple examples. If you're driving in California, a kilowatt- hour might cost you about 20 cents, right? You consume 1.7 kilowatt- hours per mile. This means that the cost of running your car on electricity is 34 cents per mile.

Compare that to diesel, which in California now costs about seven dollars a gallon. Okay . At $7 per gallon, and with a diesel truck getting about 7 miles per gallon, the cost is $1 per mile.

So, you save about 65 cents for every mile you drive. So, if you're driving 100,000 miles fairly , some of those diesel mileage numbers are considered low. It may be closer to 10 or 14 miles per gallon, but even with 14, and even if that number doubled, the Tesla Semi's economics are still better at $7 per gallon.

The problem is what will happen if the price of diesel drops to, say, $4 a gallon. If the price drops to $4 a gallon, these economies will become somewhat similar. So, what you're really compensating for isn't just fuel, but also the savings on maintenance costs.

Reducing maintenance costs is essential for Tesla. I mean, anyone who has driven or owned a Tesla before knows how much you save on maintenance, and even the hassle and downtime you save because you don't have to take your car in for service all the time.

Wow, electric cars are undeniably superior here . I may be exaggerating a little in suggesting that these trucks can reach 14 miles per gallon. But let's say 10 miles. I think seven miles is a low number, but it makes the calculations simple.

That's okay. It shows you a real difference that already exists . Annually, this means saving $65,000 per year in fuel costs. Now, these figures vary considerably across countries, and even within Europe they vary from country to country.

But the principle is the same everywhere: electric operation is cheaper per mile. What really varies is the speed of the payback period , but for most people it is much less than 5 years.

I mean, the really big thing is that the transition to electricity has already begun , and it's going to happen very quickly . The economic feasibility is indisputable, and the operational advantages in terms of service and maintenance are also undeniable .

So, this will not only happen, but it will happen very quickly . The factory was designed to build things in huge quantities. We deploy shipping and service to support that specific size.

Because this is an objective purchase. This is not an emotional purchase. You are not buying a car.

Okay, let's try to understand a little of these numbers here. So, a break-even point in 5 years is a good investment , and these trucks usually last 10 to 15 years. The break-even point at that stage is at one-third or one-half the lifespan of assets that are still depreciating in value.

With today's diesel prices, it makes perfect sense. If diesel prices fall , you're talking about trying to compete in the modernization cycle, and are people willing to put more money into investing in their trucks upfront?

Currently, the average miles per gallon for diesel trucks is around eight to nine. Again, they are using the number seven here. The most modern diesel trucks can reach up to 11.5.

So, let's be clear, 11.5 is the latest maximum . It is still in a better position in terms of unit economics compared to a Tesla. I think a lot of it has to do with the manufacturing and aerodynamics they put into these vehicles, and it's fantastic.

In this video, they talked about how it was specifically designed to be aerodynamic as a sports car, and I find it very confusing how they make some of these claims about aerodynamics .

But in any case, it is very exciting if we can actually achieve these figures compared to diesel trucks. We are of course not comparing ourselves to sports cars. They also show lots of footage from inside the factory and talk about how Tesla saves money not only because the driver sits in the middle of the vehicle, eliminating the need for right and left-hand components in the factory, but also because they leave the back of the truck exposed, making it more comfortable and more economical to work on. All of this is extremely exciting.

Now, let's talk a little about what this might mean for the stock and how to incorporate that into the plan. As far as I'm concerned , I have a 2030 data sheet that is solely for Tesla, and I do n't assume any mergers in that sheet.

We have other worksheets in which we assume a Tesla merger with SpaceX. But what I've included here is about $1.5 billion in revenue for Semi trucks by the end of 2030, with the risk that if the truck isn't adopted for some reason, it might not get enough subsidies.

Currently, federal support for these trucks has ended. However, the reason they are talking about California in this video is because California is still paying huge sums of money.

There are huge waiting lists for these trucks, but the $40,000 federal electric vehicle tax credit for Semi trucks ended on September 30, 2025. That ended along with many other tax breaks that were available to electric vehicles in general.

But California still has what is called an HVIP voucher, which gives you about $120,000 per truck. There are more subsidies you can get through something called the new Clean Fuels Bonus .

So, if you put these subsidies together, you might be able to reduce the cost of a Semi truck to less than $100,000. In this case , the breakeven point of 5 years turns into a negative value.

Meaning that you reach the break-even point from the first day. This is how you assess it: you look at the states that will provide the most subsidies, and those are the ones that will see the most adoption of Tesla's "Simi" trucks.

California is a huge trucking state, stretching across the length and breadth of the state. They will continue to pour money into these electric vehicles.

Here's what I think. I believe that Democratic victories, whether in the midterm elections or in the 2028 election, will lead to the resumption of federal tax credits for electric vehicles for Semi trucks.

Therefore, one of Tesla's next big steps might actually be the return of the Democrats. A victory for the Democrats. Record this . A win in 2028 could lead to huge recurring subsidies for Semi trucks.

Currently, California offers $120,000 through the HVIP program and up to another $120,000 through the Clean Fuels Rewards Program. This is crazy. Now you have a cost of less than $100,000, and the break-even point becomes negative immediately.

You know they're talking about a break-even point in 5 years. When you start auditing the accounts and diesel prices fall, that's a risk. It is fully compensated, by the way, through credits.

So, this is our current position regarding delivery expectations for this project. Deliveries are expected to reach around 1,000 vehicles per week at their 1.7 million square foot facility in Nevada, which is truly exciting.

They have invested approximately $3.6 billion in these two plants, one for the semi-truck plant and the other for the 4680 model battery cells used in them. They also don't paint them .

They use powder coating technology, the same technology they use with the " Mega Pack" units. That's truly impressive. That's why it's only available in white. You can choose any color you like as long as it's white, I think.

But what I find interesting is that current projections indicate Tesla will deliver only about 4,000 trucks in 2027 and about 12,000 in 2028. But if they can ramp up production of these trucks to 1,000 trucks per week, let's do the math.

That's 50,000 trucks per year at an average price of about $285,000. I think most people will buy long-range vehicles. This calculation, 50,000 multiplied by $285,000 as a total price, equals $14.25 billion.

Good . The profit margins on that, and since they mostly depend on tax exemptions for electric cars in my opinion, will be around 30%; Because I believe they will achieve a larger margin on trucks once production expands by 2030 due to current tax breaks, and those I expect to be issued in the future.

Well, at the 30% level, this actually indicates that my original estimate of 1.5 billion was very low. This means $4.275 billion in operating income. Keep in mind that this does not include Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions, which I believe, although they have a high profit margin, will initially have a low volume in Semi trucks.

Therefore, I don't think it will make a big difference to the results. But think about it for a moment.

If we go from $1.5 billion here, here's its value per share. Future value $800. Let's change this now to Simi, Simi, Simi, Simi. Where did you just put the data for "Simi"? Democrats, oh, here we are.

Good. So, we'll change this to 4.2, oh. 4.275. Here we are. That would be with a profit margin of approximately 30% at full production.

So, that's 4.275 billion with a margin of 30% and a production of 50,000 trucks per year. By 2030, it might... umm. I think this is relatively reasonable in reality. If they succeed in achieving that, especially with these tax breaks, it adds about $37 to the value of the share.

So today, that adds about 10% to the share value you might pay. This alone.

This video is somewhat similar to how "Semi" trucks add 10% to Tesla's value today, isn't it? But this shows that this project has been going on for 9 years, and people had almost forgotten about it completely.

It has become truly impressive at the moment . So it's not surprising that we might miss some of these volumes or expectations, but once you start to see them in action, you'll realize that Elon has accomplished something significant here.

The same thing is likely to happen with a roadster. I know there is an upcoming Roadster event, and it will be a very exciting event . Yes, but when will that turn into actual sales?

I don't know, but they have started accepting deposits from people again. So , I don't think it's going to be like iPhone where they say, "Oh, we're opening pre-orders next week."

You know , that would be crazy. Or you could receive the car the following week, as happened with the iPhone launch event.

However, they also expect to deliver these trucks to Europe and about 15 other countries. Amazon ordered about 200 trucks of them. For me, Europe is a great place because you're sure to get more government support there than you get on average in the United States.

I think you would get less federal support in the United States than you would in Europe.

So, for me, this is optimistic. Regarding the near-term upside prospects, it is worthwhile to start calculating those revenues and expectations today. But things get exciting once you reach 50,000 trucks a year or 1,000 trucks a week, you start to see them on the roads everywhere.

And everyone will start thinking: "Oh, I want a Tesla Semi truck too." I mean , heavy truck operators . When they look at the economics of unity plus tax breaks, I wouldn't be surprised if they actually manage to far exceed the 50,000 target.

But this is when we actually reach the broad scale. I mean, how many heavy trucks are sold annually? Let's take a quick look. How many heavy trucks are sold in the United States and Europe annually?

These two markets, because you will also face Chinese competition. Therefore, it typically ranges from 200,000 to 250,000 annually in the United States, and from 300,000 to 350,000 in Europe.

Oh my God. So, if you take the average, that means about 550,000 trucks per year. 50,000 trucks per year represents only 10% of the total target market in Europe. The total target market in Europe and the United States is approximately 550,000 trucks per year. 10, ah, 50,000 a year by 2030, is only 10% of the total target market.

So, it's still too early . This is truly wonderful. Good.

We have already discussed the price. These are price estimates, as you know, since the exact prices haven't been released yet, but these are the best estimates from analysts, many of which I believe came through leaks, so they can start testing the market early.

It is clear that there will be more competitors in this range. The risk here is a drop in fuel prices. But again, one thing to watch in this election cycle is whether the Democrats start to pick up seats and begin to win.

This is when tax breaks for solar energy, electric cars , and heavy transport trucks will be reintroduced . All of this represents a huge gain for Tesla. You just need to get through this difficult period right now.

Axios has already published an interesting article about Trump. This is not an attack on Trump. This is just to illustrate how things are developing and how it's good for Tesla.

Look, Axios literally wrote that this is the beginning of what looks like the end of Trump. Trump attacks when he feels powerless. That is why he attacks and bans news organizations.

He constantly thinks about power. He exerts control over anything he can control when he feels he is losing. He secretly admits that he has become irritable. They review the argument in the article and say that Republicans do not agree with it.

As you know, his voter approval rating has declined. So, all of these things, in my opinion, are perfectly normal. Every politician has a lifespan. All of this, in my opinion, contributes to changing the balance of power , and that is a positive thing. Tesla will last in the long run.

Now, this morning, in our Alpha Report, we talked a little bit about the Tesla Semi truck as well , and how I said that this is actually a positive catalyst for Tesla. So, keep an eye on Tesla stock.

In pre-market trading, Tesla stock was trading at around $369. It is currently trading at around $375. So, about 1.5% of Tesla's intraday gains came after our "Alpha" report , and we're very excited about some of these numbers we're seeing from Tesla and those new catalysts coming up, because these are a lot of things that have taken years to work on.

Many Tesla investors have been extremely patient, but I think the fruits are starting to appear. So, this is very exciting.