TSM has a high probability of 50% return in one year; position sized at ~25% of portfolio to balance upside conviction with downside risk.

when I think about how much how much money I want to put into a position like Tasmea right now, because I think that Tasmea has a very good chance of producing like 50% returns over the next year.

So part of my brain is like, well man, I should just buy like literally as much as I possibly can. Like make this thing 40% of my portfolio, 50% of my portfolio. Why not, right?

Like why not? I feel I have so much conviction. I think it's going to produce 50% return. So why not just make it a ridiculously large position and I'll make a a shitload of money as Tasa's CEO would say.

Then the other side is okay. Well, what happens if I'm wrong? how much money would I lose? So, I ask myself, okay, if Tasmeia is 50% of my portfolio and it goes up 50%. That's awesome.

All right. But if Tasmea is 50% of my portfolio and it goes down 50%, then I lose a significant amount of money.

And even though I would feel incredible if I made Tasmania 50% and you know I made 50% over the next year, you know, I'd make hundreds of thousands of dollars. But does that good feeling outweigh the feeling that I would have if uh the stock fell 50% if it was 50% of my portfolio?

And the answer is a hard no. All right, the that would not outweigh the downside.

So that's why I haven't made TASMA a huge position in my portfolio and it's because I have weighed the two possible outcomes. Now for myself at around 25% of my portfolio, I feel like the two outcomes are weighted properly.

because now if Tasmania, you know, goes up 50% over the next year, I'm not going to be like, "Oh, well, I should have put 50% of my portfolio in it because I've thought about that today.

You know, I thought about that a year ago. I weighed the decision. I weighed the outcomes and I decided that this is the best thing for me. So then if it goes up, you know, that outcome is what I've already factored in.