VICI has attractive fundamentals (yield/valuation) but faces a specific risk regarding tenant transparency.

And then, finally, we have VICI Properties, one of the most highly debated REITs in the space right now. In the last year, it's down by 19.4% year-to-date, down by 5.5%, but keep in mind, that's in the middle of other REITs performing very well, with VNQ, the Vanguard Real Estate Index, actually outperforming the S&P 500.

So, it's not doing very well relative to its peers.

But, what we can see is it's now yielding around 6.83% so it's coming up on a 7% dividend yield. Now trading at these prices puts them at their lowest valuation multiple, the lowest price to AFFO per share multiple that it's had in the last 5 years sitting at just 10.59 when the average is closer to about 14.

So that's a substantial drop in the valuation multiple and typically when that happens what it means is the company's no longer really growing their AFFO per share or maybe the dividend starting to come at risk.

But just a quick glance at what's going on and what's projected to continue to happen with AFFO per share and just a quick glance at the dividend metrics quickly reveals that that's simply not the case for this REIT.

AFFO per share is growing at a strong rate projected to continue to do so and the dividend is very well covered with the payout ratio sitting close to around 75%.

So what's going on with this REIT? Well if you really want to take a deep dive into it just a couple weeks ago on the Mispriced Podcast, my podcast channel, I actually interviewed the CEO of VICI Properties and we dug deep into the potential concerns with VICI and what the valuation looks like right now.

And the reality is it primarily boils down to one thing. Yes, projected AFFO per share growth should be good, the valuation multiple looks good and the yield is extremely attractive but the real issue comes down to the fact their top two tenants are going private which for us individual retail investors is going to take away the ability for us to know what their rent coverage actually looks like.

Previously those tenants were open books financially speaking, we could see how easily they can make their rent payments. We're about to lose that ability for potentially the top two tenants and anytime there's less predictability of future cash flows investors are always going to be willing to pay a lower valuation multiple as a result.

So that's undoubtedly the case for VICI Properties right now.

Ultimately, I think that's the main issue. I know other people have pointed out potential declines in traffic to Las Vegas, but the reality is when you look at the numbers, things have really stabilized so far in 2026, and we're actually seeing positive year-to-date growth in a lot of categories, even with total visitors to the city.

And the reality is when it comes Las Vegas visitor volume, VICI doesn't necessarily need growth every single year. All it has to do is collect rent from its tenants. So, it would take a substantial decline in overall visitor volume for VICI really to be impacted.

So again, if we just look at them from a valuation perspective, let's jump over to our dividend discount model and see exactly what we're working with here. Now again, what's interesting is what VICI has guided towards is around 3.3, 3.4% AFFO per share growth at least over the next year.

So, let's pull this back and assume they only achieve 3% over the next few years. All of a sudden, we can see fair value is about $33 per share, which implies 24.4% upside from current prices.

So obviously, that would be significant upside. And to be honest, that's not too far off from what the average analyst price target is at $31.54, implying around 19% upside.

So the reality is that fundamentally speaking, VICI is actually still doing very well. Some of the potential concerns like traffic to Las Vegas really aren't that big of a deal for VICI right now.

Ultimately, it comes down to concerns over losing visibility into the financials of their top two tenants, which for reference do make up the vast majority of their rent roll. So, there's certainly some tenant concentration.