Short XOM; its rigid stance on Venezuela arbitration awards prevents it from gaining from any Venezuelan production restart.

So you what you'll see now is as you've seen all year the oils will be outperforming the market and generally that's not good for the rest of the market.

It looks like Shell is in the lead 62%. uh whether or not a Shell or Exxon, I'll let you comment on that, but the bottom line is whether or not Venezuelan oil production will kick in early enough to make a difference.

I think the one I would I would probably short Exxon on that one basically because Exxon and Konico have the major legal cases against Venezuela and I you know Exxon is just not going to I've been covering Exxon for 25 30 years and those guys don't back off their legal position and their legal position is that the Venezuelans expropriated them illegally.

It's been found to be the case that they did in the international courts of arbitration and that they have like a multi-billion dollar payment due to them which you know during the White House Venezuela meeting the president sort of just swept it away saying you're not going to get that back.

But if Exxon doesn't just walk away from that stuff you know it's like yeah they'll just wait for the Democrats if that's what it takes

Uh so Shell is the most likely of those three quite rightly priced I think there I would probably be long shell short exon right there.