“above 5%... means, much more work for me...”
SPY is overvalued due to an AI bubble inflating earnings; fair value is ~3,000.
The S&P 500 is unaffected because it is in an AI bubble.
Without this AI bubble, S&P 500 earnings would not be at 300 because those are fake given the AI situation, the entropic adjustments, open AI. Let's say those with a fair recession would be at 200 now times a fair P ratio of 15, which is the historical average. The S&P now would be at 3,000.