Yeah, Lulu's down another 1.7% to just above $98 right now. Uh, your last pick I'm excited to hear about, too. It's UPS. Uh, we've seen UPS just lose momentum over the last month.
They're down. and it's brought them pretty much flat year to date because of this decline.
So, what's your thesis on UPS? Yeah, I framed this as asking the question, is the market telling us something that management isn't? Cuz management is saying that everything is great.
You know, Q2 revenue was up 7.6% year-over-year. We raised full guidance. Management said that the restructuring is behind them and that they're entering the second half with momentum.
But I'm paying attention to the stock chart and the stock chart isn't necessarily uh excited about those words. If you think about the business that they're in and what's going on behind the scenes, you know, they're winding down their relationship with their biggest customer, which is Amazon.
And so I think investors are questioning what happens when one of the biggest package shippers in America increasingly becomes its own delivery competitor. Because now Amazon is delivering I believe the number, don't quote me, I believe it's something like they're delivering about 85% of their own packages or they expect to deliver 85 to 91% of their own packages by 2029.
So I mean they're increasingly taking delivery into their own hands. Then you have to factor in that diesel hit a record high of 5.85 cents a gallon, almost $6 a gallon. And so that doesn't help a business whose business is having trucks on the road and flying airplanes to deliver packages.
And you really have to ask yourself, is there another reason for e-commerce or deliveries or packages to boom if you've lost your biggest e-commerce uh client, which is Amazon, and you're winding that down.
So, what is going to help packages and delivery pick up? I don't know that we have an answer for that. And I think that's what you're seeing in the stock. You also have a double top that happened around the 118 area.
But more importantly, this stock has just broken down below the 200 day moving averages. Then all the moving averages are crossing down. It's just not looking good technically.
And I also don't have a fundamental story or a business story to say this is why shipping and packages are going to increase for these guys. Here's who they're going to pick up that's going to be the next Amazon to turn it around. So, I don't I don't I don't see Let me