苹果在其100日均线处是买入时机;新任CEO时代可能带来更大的资本支出和并购,但App Store收入疲软。
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说到苹果,本周开始股价为每股324美元。苹果股价下跌超过4.4%,本周收于309。新CEO的时代将于9月1日开始,就在几周后。年轻的约翰·特努斯将接掌苹果,成为新任首席执行官。
美国银行,我相信他们已经与董事会和公司其他人谈过,表示下一个时代可能会结合许多AI功能和越来越多的投资。
Moving on to Apple, started the week at $324 per share. Shares of Apple declined by over 4.4% finished week at 309. The next era of a new CEO begins on September 1st, just a couple of weeks away. John Turnus, the young John Turnus, is going to take the reins over at Apple to be the new chief executive. Bank of America, who I'm sure has talked to board of directors, other people at the company, is saying that the next era could be one that combine a lot of AI features and more and more investment.
我觉得上次电话会议有趣的是,苹果已经有一段时间了,可能已经好几年,甚至十年或更久,他们有一个所谓的“净现金中性”目标,这意味着运营现金流进来,他们回购股票,做一些研发,做一些资本支出,显然回购大量股票。
如果他们,比如说,有1000亿美元的运营现金流,他们会用1000亿美元的研发资本支出和其他并购等来平衡。嗯,他们在上次电话会议上说他们要放弃这个目标。这意味着他们可能进入一个新时代,资本支出可能超出预期,并购交易可能超出预期,诸如此类,基本上为约翰·特努斯打开了对公司留下印记的大门。我预计他会这样做。
What I thought was interesting on the last conference call. One thing that Apple has done for a while now, it's actually been maybe years, maybe even a decade or more, they've had a quote net cash neutral objective, which means operating cash flow comes in, they buy back the shares, they do some R&D, they do some capex, they obviously buy back a ton of the stock. If they had, let's uh just for example, say they had a hundred billion dollars of operating cash flow, they would balance that out with a hundred billion dollars of R&D capex and other M&A and those types of things. Well, they said on their last conference call they're doing away with that. And so that means that potentially they are in a new era of maybe larger than expected capex, maybe larger than expected M&A deals, those types of things, essentially opening the door for John Ternus to put a stamp on the company. I would expect him to do that.
美国银行还表示,他可能在某些项目上更加激进。蒂姆·库克不怕花钱。他不太可能做的是真正将产品推向市场,比如苹果汽车、电视。还有其他传闻中的产品从未面世。
The other thing that Bank of America said that maybe he's more aggressive into some of these programs. Tim Cook was not scared to spend money. What he was less likely to do was actually bring that product to market, things like the Apple car, the television. There were other products that were rumored that never made the light of day.
现在,App Store的净收入同比下降,甚至月度数据也显示应用收入略有下降。受此影响最大的公司,我们实际上在付费订阅视频中提到了这一点,我们说:“嘿,苹果特别指出本季度视频游戏表现疲软。”
Now, the App Store's net revenue saw a dip year-over-year and even monthly data shows that you've got a little bit of a dip when it comes to app revenue. Now, the company this hurts the most, and we actually noted this on the paid subscriber video, we were like, "Hey, Apple specifically called out video games being soft in the quarter."
如果我有钛合金般的胆量,我就会跑出去做空AppLovin,因为这家公司与苹果直接相关,而且不仅如此,还有平台上的视频游戏广告。如果视频游戏的应用销售下降,AppLovin的收入就会下降,或者至少预期100%会下降。
过去一个月,股价下跌了28%,苹果那边一有动静,我说的是App Store的收入。那么,这只股票可能是你可以做多的。
Now, if I had cojones of titanium, I would have ran out and I should have shorted AppLovin because that is the company that is directly tied to Apple and not only that, video game advertising on the platform. If app sales of video games is down, AppLovin's revenue is going to be down or at least the expectations are 100% of the time. Over the past month, shares have slid by 28% the minute tick up over at Apple, and I'm talking about revenue from the App Store. Well, this stock is probably one you can go long.
苹果仍计划在2027年推出搭载AI的AirPods。这些AirPods带有一些摄像头。显然,据彭博社报道,本周有一段视频泄露,但他们不打算在2027年推出这些产品。从苹果通常的发布节奏来看,这是合理的。
Apple still eyes a 2027 launch for AI-powered AirPods. These are AirPods with some cameras attached to them. Apparently, there was a video leak this week according to Bloomberg, but they are not planning to launch those in 2027. That would make sense with from a release cadence standpoint typically with Apple.
现在,苹果就在其短期移动平均线附近徘徊。你可以说,我的意思是,我不介意在它测试100日移动平均线时买入。
Now, Apple, just chilling at its shorter-term moving averages. You can to I mean, like I I wouldn't mind buying this one as it tests this 100-day moving average.
他说在等什么
他自己说在等的东西,一段话一条记录。同一件事说过几次就出现几次,我们不合并,也不判断它有没有兑现。
这个频道对 $AAPL 的历次判断
The Investor Channel 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。