ABBV 基本面强劲且具备增长，但当前估值过高，不宜买入；等待更低价格/安全边际。
逐段跳播
目前在我观察名单上的三只股票是 Apple、CrowdStrike 和 AbbVie。但我目前一只都不买。原因与它的业务活动无关，完全在于它的市场估值。
The three stocks currently on my watch list are Apple, CrowdStrike, and AbbVie. But I am not buying any of them at the moment. The reason has nothing to do with her business activities. It's all about its market valuations.
这是一个完全不同的投资情形，这也把我们引向今天名单上最令人意外的公司——AbbVie，代码 ABBV。这是我一直很喜欢的一只股票，也是我在钱包里持有时间最长的一只。
This is a completely different investment situation, which leads us to the most surprising company on today's list, AbbVie, symbol ABBV. This is a name I have always loved and it is the longest center I have kept in my wallet.
这完全不同。Apple 是一家市值巨大的科技公司。CrowdStrike 是一家高增长的网络安全公司。AbbVie 是一家大型制药公司。通常当你想到 AbbVie 时，你大概会想到股息、强劲的现金流、防御性和价值。
This is completely different. Apple is a technology company with a huge market capitalization. CrowdStrike is a high-growth cybersecurity company. AbbVie is a major pharmaceutical company.
Typically when you think of AbbVie, you probably think of dividends, strong cash flow, defensiveness, and value.
AbbVie 是一家大型制药公司。通常当你想到 AbbVie 时，你大概会想到股息、强劲的现金流、防御性和价值。
AbbVie is a major pharmaceutical company. Typically when you think of AbbVie, you probably think of dividends, strong cash flow , defensiveness, and value.
但 AbbVie 的业务经历了一场令人瞩目的转型。你还记得围绕它的那场巨大焦虑吗？那是关于 Humira 的。Humira 是历史上最畅销的药物之一，多年来投资者一直在担心，在 Humira 失去专利独占权之后，AbbVie 会变成什么样子。
But AbbVie's business has undergone an impressive transformation. Do you remember the great anxiety surrounding them? It was about Humira. Humira is one of the best-selling drugs in history, and investors have spent years worrying about what AbbVie will look like after Humira loses its patent exclusivity.
我们知道答案，这也是我在很多视频里谈过的答案：Skyrizi 和 Rinvoq。上个季度，AbbVie 实现了 170 亿美元的销售额，增长了 10%。其免疫类产品组合创造了近 90 亿美元，增长了 15%。
Well, we know the answer, and it's an answer I've talked about in many videos, Skyrizi and Rinvoq. In the last quarter, AbbVie achieved sales of $17 billion, an increase of 10%.
Its portfolio of immune-boosting products has generated nearly 9 billion. That was a 15% increase.
但看看单个药物，Skyrizi 和 Rinvoq。Skyrizi 创造了 55 亿美元的收入，年增长率为 24%。Rinvoq 实现了 25 亿美元，增长约 25%。与此同时，Humira 下跌了近 36%。
But look at the individual drugs, " Skyries" and "Rinvoke". "Skyrieze" generated revenues of 5.5 billion. That was an annual growth rate of 24%. Renvoc made 2.5 billion. That was a growth of approximately 25%. Meanwhile, Humira has fallen by nearly 36 %.
这正是 AbbVie 投资者想看到的，也正因如此，当它的股价低于每股 200 美元时，我一直在敦促我自己社区的成员买入。
This is exactly what AbbVie investors wanted to see, and that's why I was urging members of my own community to buy it when it was priced below $200 per share.
但看看它现在的样子。这只股票涨到了每股 260 美元，过去一年涨幅超过 20%，这还不包括股息。从优秀程度来看，它已经拿到了超过 70 分的强劲评分，达到 75 分。
But look at him now. This stock rose to $260 per share, an increase of more than 20% over the past year, excluding dividends. From the perspective of the degree of excellence, he already gets a strong score exceeding 70, reaching 75.
但障碍又是什么呢？是估值。而且，正如我跟你说过的，这是我的主要投资之一。所以在这种情况下，我有能力对这只股票更有耐心。
But what is the obstacle again? That's the evaluation. And again, as I mentioned to you, this is one of my main investments. So, when that's the case , I have the ability to be more patient with this stock.
说到 AbbVie，它比 CrowdStrike 这类公司需要更精准的判断，因为以它当前的估值，我不会把 AbbVie 描述成像 CrowdStrike 那样在任何意义上都极端。这一点很重要。
Now, when it comes to AbbVie, it requires more precision than companies like CrowdStrike, because I would not describe AbbVie, with its current valuation, as extreme in any way as CrowdStrike. This is important.
但它所处的增长水平不同，因此估值也不同。正如你在屏幕上看到的，这些倍数多年来不断扩大，而我从这只股票的市盈率还是个位数时起就一直在谈这件事。我一直说，AbbVie 值 15 倍的倍数，这使它与许多最接近的竞争对手处于同一水平。
But it operates at a different level of growth, hence the different evaluation. As you can see on your screens, the multiples have expanded over the years, something I've been talking about ever since the stock had a single-digit price-to-earnings ratio.
I have always said that AbbVie is worth a 15x multiplier, which puts it on par with many of its closest competitors.
但我们现在谈的是基于未来盈利的 17.5 倍倍数，以及企业价值对息税折旧摊销前利润的 15.2 倍倍数。再说一次，这不算极端，但也不诱人。事实上，如果把它与标普500指数相比，可以说它相当合理。
But we are now talking about a multiple of 17.5 times from the perspective of future earnings and a multiple of 15.2 for the value of the enterprise to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.
Again, it's not extreme , but it's not tempting either. In fact, if you compare it to the S& P 500 index, you can say it is quite reasonable.
那么它为什么出现在今天的名单上？因为估值绝不应脱离其他因素孤立地判断。我想把AbbVie当前的估值与其历史估值、增长前景、产品管线、债务、股息率，以及我能在别处获得的回报进行比较。
So why is it on today's list? Because evaluation should never be judged in isolation from others. I want to compare AbbVie's current valuation with its historical valuation, growth prospects, product pipeline, debt, dividend yield , and the return I could earn elsewhere.
事实是，我已经持有它相当大的仓位。"Abfi"是另一种高生活成本。这是一个重要的区别。"Abfi"对于我所追求的回报来说更贵，而这是一个更有力的理由。
The truth is, I already hold a prominent position in it. " Abfi" is a different kind of high cost of living. This is an important distinction. "Abfi" is more expensive for the return I'm looking for, and that's a much better argument.
我喜欢Skyrise和Renvoke这两款药物以及它们为免疫领域带来的东西、公司的现金流、股息派发和未来的生产线。管理层对Homera过渡的执行也比许多投资者担心的要好得多。
I love the Skyrise and Renvoke properties and what they offer to the immune sector, the company’s cash flow, dividend payouts, and future production line. Management also executed the Homera transition much better than many investors feared.
但制药板块带有独特的风险，比如我们已经看到的专利到期、AbbVie曾面临的临床试验失败、价格压力和监管风险。因此，我希望我买入的每一只股票都有安全边际，而在当前价格下，我更愿意等待更好的入场点。
But the pharmaceutical sector carries unique risks, such as patent expiration as we have seen, clinical trial failures that AbbVie faced, price pressures, and regulatory risks.
Therefore, I want to have a safety margin with every stock I buy, and at the current price, I prefer to wait for a better entry point.
当我审视这三家公司——Apple、CrowdStrike和AbbVie时，我完全喜欢它们所做的工作，但我不喜欢它们当前的评级。
When I look at these three companies, Apple, CrowdStrike and AbbVie, I love their work in its entirety, but I don't like their current ratings.
AbbVie在制药板块表现优异。16倍的预期市盈率不算差，但问题在于该股强劲表现之后缺乏安全边际。
AbbVie delivers excellent performance in the pharmaceutical sector. A forward price-to-earnings ratio of 16x is not bad, but the problem lies in the lack of a safety margin after the stock's strong performance.
我喜欢AbbVie。但我现在不会买入。因为想拥有一家企业与愿意为它支付任何价格之间是有区别的。如果波动给了我想要的价格，我就会准备好。
I love AbbVie. But I won't buy it now. Because there is a difference between wanting to own a business and being willing to pay any price for it. If the fluctuations give me the price I'm looking for, I'll be ready.
知道了这一点，我可以利用一些期权策略来为自己创造更多现金流，同时等待这些股票下跌。不过，请在评论区告诉我，这三只股票中，如果只能选一只，你希望以更低的价格拥有哪一只？是Apple、CrowdStrike，还是AbbVie？最重要的是，你期待的价格是多少？
Knowing this, there are option strategies I can use to my advantage to generate more cash flow while waiting for these stocks to decline. However, tell me in the comments section which of these three stocks, if you could choose just one, you would like to own at a lower price?
Is it Apple, CrowdStrike, or AbbVie? And most importantly, what price are you expecting?
这也把我们引向今天名单上最令人意外的公司——AbbVie，代码 ABBV。这是我一直很喜欢的一只股票，也是我在钱包里持有时间最长的一只。
This leads us to the most surprising company on today's list, AbbVie, symbol ABBV. This is a name I have always loved and it is the longest center I have kept in my wallet.
这个频道对 $ABBV 的历次判断
Mark Roussin, CPA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。