Airbnb 表现良好，增长强劲并推进 AI 举措，但其高估值（市盈率超过 50 倍）存在表现不佳的风险，历史数据显示此类股票回报为负。
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一直以来的一个大落后者终于得到了买盘，那就是 Airbnb而且这是一家我永远不会使用其产品的公司。我不会住在别人家里。我不评判任何想这样做的人。我永远不会让任何人住在我家。
One of the big lagards all this time finally caught a bid and it is uh Airbnb and this is a company whose product I will never use. I will not stay in someone's home. I don't judge anyone for wanting to do that. I will never let somebody stay in my home.
Airbnb 现在有点火爆。在 Bernstein 在 8 月初发布最新财报后，大幅升级。这就是我们所说的逃逸缺口。逃逸缺口，不是突破缺口。逃逸缺口发生在趋势的中间。这就像爱德华兹和麦基的理论，但基本上你会取之前那波走势的幅度，然后在另一侧，这就是你应该预期它能继续运行多远才会耗尽动能。所以这些都是非常看涨的。
Airbnb is kind of killing it right now. huge upgrade from Bernstein after their latest earnings report which was earlier in August. This is what we call a runaway gap. Runaway gap, not a breakaway gap. A runaway gap happens in the middle of a move. And this is like Edwards and McGee stuff, but basically you would take the the amount of the move that preceded it and then on the other side that's how far you should expect this to be able to keep running before it runs out of steam. So these are very bullish.
这个东西跳空高开，而且再也没有回头去回补那个缺口。管理层现在指引使用量将连续第五个季度实现10%或更高的增长。
this thing gapped up and never even looked back at that gap level. management is now guiding to a fifth consecutive quarter of 10% or higher growth in in usage.
伯恩斯坦出来给该股设定了217美元的目标价。他们看到的是两位数的营收增长、利润率扩张、持续的股票回购，而且他们认为未来每股收益将实现20%的年增长率。
Bernstein came out and put a $217 target on the stock. They're looking at double-digit revenue growth, margin expansion, ongoing buybacks, and they think they're going to get 20% annual earnings per share growth um, going forward.
他们还说这是一只AI股票，我觉得这很有意思。Airbnb正在大量使用AI。他们有一位出色的CEO，布莱恩·切斯基。他知道自己在做什么。
They're also talking that this is an AI stock, which I thought was interesting. Airbnb is using a ton of AI. They have an awesome CEO, Brian Chesy. He knows what he's doing.
重建其搜索和发现层，以更好地将客人与他们可能预订的房源进行匹配，而不是仅仅基于距离返回结果，这是过去的工作方式。
rebuilding its search and discovery layer to better match guests to listings they're likely to book rather than just returning results based on proximity, which is how this thing used to work.
在正确的时间为正确的旅行者展示正确的房源，提高转化率。动态定价工具。他们收费合理吗？可能不是。没有人能做到。AI帮助你达到某人愿意支付的最高价格，而不会放弃他们的购物车。
surfacing the right home for the right traveler at the right time, increasing conversion rates. Dynamic pricing tools. Are they charging the right amount? Probably not. Nobody is. AI helps you get to the highest price somebody will pay without abandoning their shopping cart.
我们已经看到他们在演唱会业务中这样做过。我们已经看到航空公司这样做过。赞助列表，一种新兴的广告产品，房东可以付费出现在搜索结果中。高利润率的收入流，位于核心抽成率之上。AI对于使拍卖和展示逻辑发挥作用至关重要。
We've seen them do this in the concert business. We've seen the airlines do this. Sponsored listings, an emerging advertising products where product where hosts can pay to appear in search results. High margin revenue stream that sits on top of the core take rate. AI is central to making the auction and placement logic work.
忠诚度计划正在扩展AI个性化，以提供更多忠诚度优惠和奖励，并更好地定位它们。这就是Meta所做的。他们是世界上最擅长这个的。但看到Airbnb利用AI开始实现20%的增长，这些是我个人最感兴趣的股票类型。
the loyalty program expanding AI personalization to make more loyalty offers and rewards and target them better. This is what Meta does. um they're the best in the world at it. But seeing Airbnb utilizing AI to start putting up 20% growth, this these are the types of stocks that I personally am most interested in.
这是一个相当无聊的业务。它是住宿，但用AI为现有业务赋能，我认为这就是标普500指数未来可能有多头市场年的原因。
This is a pretty boring business. It's lodging, but supercharging the existing business with AI, I think, is how the S&P could have multiple bull market years ahead of it.
Airbnb最大的问题，最大的问题是它上市的时候。Airbnb于2020年12月上市。它在顶部时是不盈利的。它的交易价格是销售额的40倍，就是这样。它花了六年时间才走出那个困境。他说即使未来增长强劲，也很难克服高起始估值。
The biggest problem for Airbnb, the biggest problem was when it came public. Airbnb came public in December 2020. It was unprofitable right at the top. It was trading at 40 times sales and that is it. It took six years to grow its way out of that hole. he says it's hard to overcome a high starting multiple even when future growth is robust.
所以，当你交易在50倍以上，这是什么盈利，好吗？当你交易在50倍以上，看看五年的复合年增长率。即使你以15%到20%的速度增长，平均也是-2%。这非常棘手。这非常非常棘手。
So, when you're trading above 50 times, and what is this earnings, okay? When you're trading above 50 times, look at the five-year kagger. Even when you're growing between 15 to 20%, the average is -2%. And this is very tricky. This is very, very tricky.
那些公司之所以获得如此高的估值，正是因为盈利增长如此爆炸性。所以预期会超前，对吧？Airbnb花了整整六年时间才消化掉那部分超额。
The reason why those companies get rewarded with such a high multiple is precisely because the earnings growth is so explosive. And so expectations get ahead of itself, right? And it takes Airbnb six freaking years to burn that excess off.
他说在等什么
他自己说在等的东西，一段话一条记录。同一件事说过几次就出现几次，我们不合并，也不判断它有没有兑现。
这个频道对 $ABNB 的历次判断
The Compound 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。