ABNB的住房基金是一种声誉与政治层面的对冲手段,对利润影响甚微,但可降低该股面临的监管风险。
逐段跳播
Airbnb的2.5亿美元计划,旨在帮助普通美国人负担得起住房。
Airbnb's $250 million initiative to help make housing affordable for ordinary Americans.
多年来,我们都知道Airbnb一直是美国住房可负担性故事中的反派,被市议会、州议员以及几乎所有关于租金的本地新闻报道指责,因为它收购了本可以供永久居民居住的房屋。
For years, we all know that Airbnb has been the villain in America's housing affordability story, blamed by city councils, state legislators, and virtually every local news report on rents, for acquiring homes that could have housed permanent residents.
本周,CEO Brian Chesky 决定不再采取守势,转而开始开出支票。是的,Airbnb 正向一个名为“住房加速器”的新项目投入 2.5 亿美元,该项目提供所谓的缺口资金。
This week, CEO Brian Chesky decided to step off the defensive and started writing checks instead. Yes, Airbnb is committing $250 million to a new program they call the "Housing Accelerator," which provides what is known as gap funding.
Airbnb 专门为这个项目开出的支票金额为 640 万美元。Chesky 并未试图粉饰其动机。他在一段引述中表示:“我一直处于美国大多数主要城市头号政治议题的核心,我不能再对这个问题视而不见,Airbnb 必须尝试提供一些解决方案。”
The value of the check that Airbnb presented specifically for this project is $6.4 million . Chesky did not try to sugarcoat the motives. He says in a quote: "I've been at the heart of the number one political issue in most major American cities , and I can't ignore this problem much longer without Airbnb trying to offer some solutions."
Airbnb 的单项投资通常覆盖项目总资本的约 10%,纸面上看似乎很小;但曾在拜登政府担任住房官员、如今负责运营这个 Airbnb 新项目的 Daniel Horning 表示,这 10% 的缺口恰恰是撬动其余 90%、让一个停滞项目重新启动所必需的,就像这个在得克萨斯州奥斯汀 20 英亩土地上搁置了十年的项目一样。
Individual Airbnb investments typically cover about 10 % of the project's total capital , which seems small on paper; But Daniel Horning, a former housing official in the Biden administration who now runs this new Airbnb program, says that 10% gap is exactly what's needed to unlock the remaining 90% and get a stalled project moving like this one, which has been sitting on 20 acres in Austin, Texas, for a decade.
我有些怀疑,因为在我写这篇文章时查了一下,Airbnb 拥有 120 亿美元现金,而且因为如果你看一下,Airbnb 预计在十多年内,其 2.5 亿美元将在回收资金再投资于新项目后,转化为 50 亿美元的实际建筑资本。
I am somewhat skeptical because, as I looked into it while writing this, Airbnb has $12 billion in cash, and Because if you look at it, Airbnb expects over a decade that its $250 million will turn into $5 billion in actual building capital once the recovered funds are reinvested in new projects.
即便按最乐观的 20 倍乘数估算,Airbnb 的 50 亿美元资本最终也只是杯水车薪,面对可能高达数百亿美元、甚至更多的资金缺口,这点钱远远不够填补。
Even with the most optimistic estimate of a 20x multiplier , Airbnb's $5 billion in capital is ultimately just a small margin against a shortfall that could require tens of billions of dollars, and perhaps more, to close that gap.
除了资金之外,该公司还推出一个开源数据集以追踪全国住房政策,并设立一项 500 万美元的竞赛,奖励那些真正能简化住宅建造流程的技术,押注分区和许可改革与资金同样重要。
Alongside the capital, the company is launching an open-source dataset to track housing policy nationwide and a $5 million competition for technologies that actually streamline the home-building process , betting that zoning and permitting reform is just as important as the money.
我很想看看 Airbnb 这 2.5 亿美元将如何分配到全国其他真正需要可负担住房的地区,以及实际会建成什么,我对此持乐观态度。
I'm eager to see how this quarter billion from Airbnb will be distributed to other parts of the country that really need affordable housing , and what will actually be built, and I'm optimistic about that.
提供可负担住房并非 Airbnb 的责任。他们说:“好吧,我们将拨出 2.5 亿美元,因为我们想解决这个问题,也因为人们总是为此指责我们。”好吧,想怪我们就怪吧,但我们在提供解决方案。
Providing affordable housing is not Airbnb's responsibility to solve. They say, "Okay, we'll allocate a quarter of a billion because we want to solve this problem, and because people are always blaming us for it ."
Well, blame us if you want, but we are offering solutions.
那么,我们来谈谈这个 2.5 亿美元的项目。我不认为它会显著改变 Airbnb 的利润。这是一种政治对冲和保全声誉的方式,而非增长引擎。
So, let's talk about this $250 million program. I don't think it will significantly change Airbnb's profits. It is a political hedge and a way to preserve reputation, not an engine for growth.
但他还做了另一件绝对值得关注的事。这让正在考虑对短租施加限制的市议会在监管上失去了借口,而这对一只以两倍于其价值交易、并假设这些限制将保持有限的股票来说,是一个真实的风险。
But he does something else that is definitely worth watching. It takes regulatory pretexts out of the hands of municipal councils considering imposing restrictions on short- term leases, a real risk to a stock that trades at twice its value and assumes those restrictions will remain limited.
这家常被指责造成住房危机的公司不得不指出,当前缺口的真正元凶并非 Airbnb 的房源,而是资本成本本身。
The company, which is often blamed for the housing crisis, had to point out that the real culprit behind the current gap is not Airbnb listings, but the cost of capital itself.
这个频道对 $ABNB 的历次判断
Rich Habits 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。