当前买入 ACHR；估值指标与 DCF 显示短期内有 30% 的上行空间，但因风险较高，信心偏低。
逐段跳播
上个月，当Archer Aviation宣布从Boeing手中收购Whisk Arrow、Institute和Sky Grid时，在我看来这是一笔对Archer Aviation极为有利的交易，股价随之飙升，但在过去一个月里，它已经回吐了公告后最初获得的部分涨幅。
Last month when Archer Aviation announced that it was buying Whisk Arrow, Institute, and Sky Grid from Boeing in what appeared to me to be a sweetheart deal for Archer Aviation, the stock price soared, but in the last month, it's given up some of those gains initially received after that announcement.
那么，Archer Aviation的股票现在是否是一个买入机会？如果你还不了解，Archer Aviation是一家非常早期阶段的电动垂直起降公司，即电动飞行器起降。与它长期可能达到的潜力相比，公司目前的收入相对较小。
在过去12个月里，公司仅实现了690万美元的收入。
So, is Archer Aviation stock now a buying opportunity? Now, if you didn't already know, Archer Aviation is a very early stage EV toll company, electric vehicle takeoff and landing.
The company's revenues are relatively small compared to the potential of what it could be in the very long run. Over the trailing 12-month period, the company generated just $6.9 million in revenue.
当然，上个月他们与Boeing达成了一笔收购交易，在我看来这像是一笔极为有利的交易。Archer Aviation之所以获得这些资产，是因为Boeing希望更专注于其核心业务，而该核心业务正陷入困境。
Of course, last month, they made that acquisition in a deal with Boeing that, in my opinion, look like a sweetheart deal. Archer Aviation got these assets because Boeing wanted to focus more on its core business, which is struggling.
对于像Archer Aviation这样处于早期发展阶段的公司，我会关注的一点是：它们烧掉了多少现金？经营性现金流与销售额的比率是多少？我想看看它们在经营性现金流与销售额方面是否至少持平，那将意味着这是一家能够自我维持的企业，或者它们是否正在接近这一水平。
而对于Archer Aviation来说，这些问题的答案是否定的。它们远未达到自我可持续的水平。在过去12个月里，其经营性现金流与销售额的比率为负7,800%。
One of the things I look at with companies like Archer Aviation in their early stages of development is how much cash are they burning? What's the percentage of cash flow from operations to sales?
I want to see if they're at least flat in terms of cash flow from operations to sales, which would mean that it's a self-sustaining business or are they approaching that level.
And the answer to those questions for Archer Aviation is no. They're nowhere near a self-sustainable level. over the trailing 12 month, their cash flow from operations to sales was negative 7,800%.
但好消息是，它们正在展现出改善。它们正在展现出实现某些里程碑的能力，并向投资者展示进展，而这正是投资者在这些早期阶段最看重的事情。
But the good news is that they are demonstrating improvement. They are demonstrating an ability to hit certain milestones and demonstrate progress to investors which is the main thing investors look for at these early stages.
而对于Archer Aviation来说，其上行空间是巨大的。目前很难量化，因为市场实际上还不存在。全球范围内还没有电动垂直起降市场可供你拿来对比并说，好吧，如果这家公司接近其某个竞争对手的水平，它可能是什么样子，对吧？
And for Archer Aviation, that upside is huge. Very difficult to quantify at this point because the market doesn't really exist. There are no electric vehicle takeoff and landing markets worldwide that you can compare to and say, okay, this is what the company could be if it approaches one of its rivals, right?
但对于Archer Aviation，你实际上无法这样做。所以这其中有很多猜测。有很多估计和假设，其范围可能很宽。它可能这么大，也可能这么小。在评估这样一家公司并进行情景分析时，这些都是需要考虑的现实假设。
But you can't really do that with Archer Aviation. So it's a lot of speculation. It's a lot of estimation and assumption that could be wide in terms of range. It could be this large or it could be this small.
And those are all realistic assumptions to consider when you're evaluating a company like this and doing your scenario analysis.
它真的只应该被考虑给那些风险承受能力非常高的投资者。这些投资者明白，对Archer Aviation的投资可能带来50倍的回报，也可能带来0倍的回报，即几乎你所有的钱都会亏掉，股价下跌90%、95%、99%。
对于像Archer Aviation这样的公司，这两种情景都是可能发生的。
It should only really be considered for investors that have a very high risk tolerance. Investors that understand that an investment in Archer Aviation could result in a 50x return or a 0x return where nearly all of your money goes down. the stock loses 90 95 99% of its value.
Those are both plausible scenarios with a company like Archer Aviation.
因此，出于这些原因，现金余额变得重要得多。他们从投资者那里筹集了多少资本？他们的银行账户里有多少资本？这样你就能了解他们还有多少时间，直到需要再次向投资者寻求更多资本。而就今天的Archer Aviation而言，投资者可以看到一个相当有吸引力的状况。
公司资产负债表上有15.68亿美元的现金和短期投资。
So for those reasons, the cash balance becomes a lot more important. How much capital have they raised from investors? How much capital do they have in the bank account? So you get an idea of how much time they have until they need to go back to investors and ask for more capital.
And with Archer Aviation today, investors can see a reasonably attractive position. The company has 1.568 billion in cash and short-term investments on the balance sheet.
我觉得Archer Aviation以及一些电动垂直起降公司也发生了这种情况，尤其是在2020年、2021年、2022年前后。有很多这类高潜力公司以极其昂贵的估值出售，早期投资者在没有完全理解估值、风险与回报的情况下就资助了这些前景。
他们只看到了上行空间，而上行空间是巨大的。我同意这一点。但当你考虑上行空间时，你也必须考虑风险，并权衡风险与回报。而在早期，我并不觉得Archer Aviation的风险回报比是值得的。
And I feel that happened with Archer Aviation and some of the EV toll companies too, especially around 2020, 2021, 2022. There were a lot of these high potential companies that were selling at super expensive valuations and early investors funded those prospects without completely understanding the valuation, the risk versus reward.
They were just looking at the upside and the upside is huge. I agree with that. But when you're thinking about upside, you also have to think about risk and consider risk versus the reward.
And in the earlier days, I didn't feel the risk versus reward was worthwhile for Archer Aviation.
你可以在这里看到，回顾Archer Aviation股票2021年的价格走势图，当时该股股价为每股12美元。当时很多投资者对这家公司感到兴奋。投资者在这家公司的不同时刻都曾感到兴奋。
但在其公开市场历史的整个过程中，股价已下跌超过45%。
And you can see here looking back at the price chart of Archer Aviation stock in 2021, the stock was trading at $12 per share. And a lot of investors were excited about the company at that time.
And investors had been excited about this company at various moments. But throughout the duration of its history in the public market, the stock price is down over 45%.
所以没有理由急着冲进去买入Archer Aviation的股票。就像我告诉投资者的那样，当SpaceX股票在狂热的高峰、热情的高峰以每股200美元以上交易时，也没有理由急着冲进去买入。
那些时刻正是你想要避开这类公司的时候。你想在所有这些泡沫、所有这些空气都已经泄掉、不再有泡沫的时候买入它们。不再有那种在股价飙升时存在的狂热和热情。
So there was no reason to rush in there and buy Archer Aviation stock. Just like I informed investors, there was no reason to rush in there and buy SpaceX stock when it was trading above $200 per share in the height of the euphoria, in the height of the enthusiasm.
Those are moments when you want to avoid those kinds of companies. You want to buy them at moments when all of that bubble has all of that air has kind of flowed out and there's no longer a bubble.
There's no longer that euphoria, that enthusiasm that existed when the share price was booming.
这就是我今天对Archer Aviation的看法。它的远期市销率为29.8，根据这一估值指标，这是它多年来交易的最低水平。此外，当我查看该公司今天更新的折现现金流估值时，我计算出的公允价值为7.17美元，当前市场价格为553美元。
我计算出近期、未来12到18个月内有30%的上行空间。而如果我们考虑更长期，我认为Archer Aviation还有更大的上行空间。根据公司成功的持续时间和时机，这可能是那种能让你的钱翻5倍、10倍或25倍的公司之一。
And that's the way I feel about Archer Aviation today. It's trading at a forward price to sales of 29.8, the lowest level it's traded for according to this valuation metric going back several years.
Furthermore, when I look at the company's discounted cash flow valuation, which I updated today, I calculated a fair value at $7.17, current market price $553. I calculate a 30% upside over the near term, over the next 12 to 18 months.
And then if we think even longer term, I think there's even more upside for Archer Aviation. This could be one of the companies that could 5x, 10x, or 25x your money depending on the duration and the timing of the company's success.
所以，现在是买入Archer Aviation股票的时候了。在我看来，如果你是一位风险承受能力非常高的投资者，并且正在寻找具有巨大上行空间的公司，我推荐或将Archer Aviation股票评为买入机会。
当然，我也要提到，由于我前面谈到的原因，我对这一评级信心较低、信念较低。这项投资的潜在结果存在巨大差异。高风险、高回报，潜在结果差异很大。这使我无法对该评级抱有很高的信心。
So, now is the time to buy Archer Aviation stock. In my opinion, if you're an investor with a very high risk tolerance and you're looking for companies that have huge upside, I'm recommending or ranking Archer Aviation stock as a buying opportunity.
Of course, I also want to mention that I have a low confidence level, low uh conviction level on this ranking because of what I talked about earlier. There is wide disparity in the potential outcomes in this investment.
High risk, high reward, wide variation in the potential outcomes. And that doesn't allow me to have a high confidence level in the ranking.
这个频道对 $ACHR 的历次判断
Parkev Tatevosian, CFA 在这只股票上只有这一条判断。